First to make sure Group
is defined as a factor. Your current model is $$M_{ij}=\alpha_i+\beta_1\mathrm{Time}_{ij}+u_i+e_{ij},$$ where $i$ denotes Group
and $j$ the time points. If you run your model and test with ranef()
, you will find that it is hard to distinguish $\alpha_i$ and $u_i$ in the estimation, thus $u_i$ almost equal 0.
Two possible alternative models are:
- Random effects model, $$M_{ij}=\beta_0+\beta_1\mathrm{Time}_{ij}+u_i+e_{ij},$$ where $\beta_0$ is the average intercept, $u_i$ is the random individual deviance
from the average intercept for each group and is assumed to follow a distribution.
- Fixed effects model (in the context of econometrics), $$M_{ij}=\alpha_i+\beta_1\mathrm{Time}_{ij}+e_{ij},$$ where $\alpha_i$ is the fixed individual intercept.
Updates:
I use the sleepstudy
data set as an illustration.
If the grouping variable (a factor) is included as a covariate (Model fm2
below), both the random effects and its variance tend to be zero. The intuitive explanation is that, $\alpha_i$ and $u_i$ basically model the same quantity (the group specific intercept), although one is assumed fixed and one is random. The majority of the variability is first absorbed by the fixed intercepts ($\alpha_i$), so the random intercepts $u_i$ tend to be all zero.
The code and results are listed below.
> fm1 <- lmer(Reaction ~ Days + (1 | Subject), sleepstudy, REML = F)
> re1 = as.matrix(ranef(fm1)$Subject)
> summary(as.vector(re1))
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
-77.570 -7.460 5.701 0.000 15.850 71.920
> VarCorr(fm1)
Groups Name Std.Dev.
Subject (Intercept) 36.012
Residual 30.895
> sd(re1)
[1] 35.76336
> fm2 <- lmer(Reaction ~ Days + Subject + (1 | Subject), sleepstudy, REML = F)
> re2 = as.matrix(ranef(fm2)$Subject)
> summary(as.vector(re2))
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0 0 0 0 0 0
> VarCorr(fm2)
Groups Name Std.Dev.
Subject (Intercept) 0.00
Residual 29.31
> sd(re2)
[1] 0
Updates 2:
Previously I used ML in lmer
because I found REML variance estimate for the random intercept seems off the true value in this extreme case. I know that it may not make sense to include both fixed and random group-specific intercepts in a single model, but it can be an interesting example. Note that the only different between this model and the random intercept model is a larger design matrix for the fixed effects.
The lmer
example below uses REML, and the model is the same as Model fm2
above. The estimated random effects are all close to zero, and their standard deviation is very close to zero. I know the standard deviation of the estimated random effects is not a perfect estimate of the variance of the random effects, but the two should correspond somehow. But the REML variance estimate for the random effects is 33, which is very off zero.
> fm3 <- lmer(Reaction ~ Days + Subject + (1 | Subject), sleepstudy, REML = T, verbose = T)
> re3 = as.matrix(ranef(fm3)$Subject)
> summary(as.vector(re3))
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
-3.998e-12 -9.220e-13 -6.549e-13 -7.717e-13 -4.567e-13 6.893e-13
> VarCorr(fm3)
Groups Name Std.Dev.
Subject (Intercept) 33.050
Residual 30.991
> sd(re3)
[1] 9.391908e-13
I also tested in Stata
and it becomes more interesting. The mixed
command uses an EM algorithm but it cannot converge and thus gives a very large estimate. In my understanding, REML and ML should not differ so much in this case. There may be some numerical issues. Given that the estimates rely on iterations, I will think more about this when I have more time.
. mixed reaction days i.subject || subject:, reml
Performing EM optimization:
Performing gradient-based optimization:
could not calculate numerical derivatives -- discontinuous region with missing values encountered
could not calculate numerical derivatives -- discontinuous region with missing values encountered
Computing standard errors:
standard-error calculation failed
Mixed-effects REML regression Number of obs = 180
Group variable: subject Number of groups = 18
Obs per group:
min = 10
avg = 10.0
max = 10
Wald chi2(18) = 169.64
Log restricted-likelihood = -805.65036 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Random-effects Parameters | Estimate Std. Err. [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
subject: Identity |
var(_cons) | 105231.5 . . .
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
var(Residual) | 960.4566 . . .
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. linear model: chibar2(01) = 2.3e-13 Prob >= chibar2 = 1.0000
Warning: convergence not achieved; estimates are based on iterated EM