Given the following daily time series data
I have used auto.arima in R to build a model. I used
freq = 5 because the data is collected only on weekdays (Monday through Friday).
tsdata <- ts(data, freq = 5) fit <- auto.arima(tsdata, ic = 'aicc') plot(forecast(fit, h = 80))
Series: tsdata ARIMA(3,1,2)(0,0,1) with drift Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 ma2 sma1 drift 1.6825 -0.6384 -0.0993 0.0151 -0.9778 -0.0063 -0.0232 s.e. 0.0494 0.0904 0.0487 0.0125 0.0123 0.0483 0.2080 sigma^2 estimated as 33.92: log likelihood=-1393.24 AIC=2806.1 AICc=2806.44 BIC=2838.78
I obtained the following forecast result:
Why does Arima only give me back a straight line ?
Is the ARIMA model is the correct one to use here ?
How do I retain the feature of the forecast data ?
I am very new to build time series model.
Any suggestions would be appreciated.