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For a research project, I'm asked to find ways to build an economic foresight system. For example, for the production of cheese. We will have data about the market indicators, like price, demand etc. And we want to build a system that estimates the future state of these variables.

Machine Learning and Bayesian Networks might be an approach, but I think they mostly assume linearity.

I see that complex systems is a relevant approach, but I don't know where to start. All the papers about complex systems I found are verbal, instead of mathematical / implementation etc. Can you suggest some readings to get an idea for how to construct a system with given parameters, estimates the future ?

Thanks for any help!

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    $\begingroup$ If you can build an even halfway reliable system to predict future prices, you should be able to become rich by trading futures! $\endgroup$
    – Henning Makholm
    Commented Apr 3, 2014 at 10:15

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here's the reading I suggest: Understanding Economic Forecasts by Hendry etc.

Hendry is well known economist in forecasting circles. I suggest this book because by the way you formulated your question it seems that you need to start with a very basic, almost philosophical, texts to get an idea of what is possible first.

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