I'm attempting to learn Bayesian modelling with PyMC, so I have been going through Cam Pilon Davidson's Probabilistic Programming for Hackers. I literally copied his code from chapter 1 and used my own storm data. Here is the ipython notebook of my code.
My problem is with the posterior distributions. One of them returns probabilities over 1. Or are they not actually probabilities? Should I be using a different alpha for my exponential distributions? Am I asking the right questions?
I'm not a heavy math person, so I may have a fundamental misunderstanding about what is going on here...
Thanks for any help!