Linked Questions

1
vote
0answers
33 views

Time Series Forecasting Inquiry [duplicate]

Im trying to perform some time series analysis on 2015 and 2016 monthly recorded data to see what method is best for forecasting 2016 monthly values for the remainder of the year. The data has an ...
59
votes
32answers
3k views

What are the worst (commonly adopted) ideas/principles in statistics?

In my statistical teaching, I encounter some stubborn ideas/principles relating to statistics that have become popularised, yet seem to me to be misleading, or in some cases utterly without merit. I ...
46
votes
6answers
45k views

Best method for short time-series

I have a question related to modeling short time-series. It is not a question if to model them, but how. What method would you recommend for modeling (very) short time-series (say of length $T \leq 20$...
29
votes
2answers
32k views

Interpretation of mean absolute scaled error (MASE)

Mean absolute scaled error (MASE) is a measure of forecast accuracy proposed by Koehler & Hyndman (2006). $$MASE=\frac{MAE}{MAE_{in-sample, \, naive}}$$ where $MAE$ is the mean absolute error ...
12
votes
3answers
9k views

Strategies for time series forecasting for 2000 different products?

First of all, I realise that my question is very broad and that it may be hard to answer this question because of it. Do you have any advice on how to approach a 'problem' where you need to make ...
9
votes
1answer
19k views

ARIMA forecast straight line?

I have daily mean temperature data with 856 observations, no missing data. I used auto.arima() from the forecast package and ...
3
votes
3answers
4k views

Alternatives to Using ARIMA for forecasting

I've been dealing with mostly univariate time series data and am wondering what alternative models exist for forecasting instead of ARIMA, ARMA, AR and MA processes, I know about exponential ...
6
votes
2answers
2k views

Simple method of forecasting number of guests given current and historical data

I am trying to predict the number of guests a restaurant might serve in a meal period based on the volume of business that same day from prior years (3-5 years of data), trends for the same day of the ...
5
votes
2answers
2k views

What is a “benchmark” time-series model?

I've been seeing the term "benchmark" being thrown around when referring to ARIMA models (e.g. here: https://robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/benchmarks/). I've looked up a definition and cannot find one. ...
9
votes
2answers
2k views

Dummy/baseline models for time series forecasting

I am working on an evaluation of time series forecasting models in Python, more specifically with statsmodels, scikit-learn and tensorflow. I think it makes sense to first compare the model ...
8
votes
1answer
4k views

Why does default auto.arima stop at (5,2,5)?

The function auto.arima in the forecast package of R is a powerful tool to identify the best ...
6
votes
2answers
3k views

Training one model to work for many time series

I have been working with time series data to try and make multi-step demand forecast for products. There are thousands of products and it is computationally very expensive and labour intensive to ...
0
votes
2answers
7k views

Why I get the same predict value in Arima model?

I am really don't know what I am missing. So, please help me. I am doing a time series analysis. What I want to do is find the predicted values. Here is my data. ...
2
votes
1answer
5k views

Forecasting with no seasonality

I have a set of data, let's say average weight of employees, captured every month over a period of 5 years (2010 - 2014). I cannot find a seasonality trend in the data over these years. Also, I have ...
2
votes
1answer
2k views

Auto-Arima creates a straight line help

I'm trying to create a forecast using autoarima with some data, but i always get a straight-line, can someone please help me? :) This is what i've got so far ...

15 30 50 per page