Linked Questions

3 votes
1 answer

Short time series forecast [duplicate]

We have a series of monthly data for 20 months (it is not possible to obtain more data). These are the number of medical consultations encoded in a public hospital and we only have monthly data for ...
  • 31
0 votes
0 answers

What is the best model for forecasting if you have very less data points? [duplicate]

I recently got to work on a problem of forecasting five years of data. But I only had five data point from previous years i.e. yearly data (frequency = 1). The data is heteroskedastic. For example, [...
  • 159
0 votes
0 answers

How to do Time Series analysis with only 10 data points [duplicate]

I think this is a basic question but really I just need a definite starting point. I am working in R. I have a dataset as follows ...
0 votes
0 answers

How to forecast a very small time serie (26 observations)? [duplicate]

I need help to predict future values for a time series (26 observations of consumer prices). This time series is not stationary (i.e I have increasing values of price). What is the best method ...
0 votes
0 answers

Appropriate forecasting methods for only 20 observations [duplicate]

I am trying to forecast the regional GDP growth of our region in the next five years, I only have 20 observations in my data which is yearly, what forecasting model is appropriate? I tried ARIMA in r ...
  • 1
0 votes
0 answers

What is the best method for time series forecast for a time frame longer than data available [duplicate]

I am very new to data science, my question is what model should I use to predict for, let's say, the next 2 years if I only have data available for less than a year? From what I read online, most ...
0 votes
0 answers

How to forecast using short data set? [duplicate]

I would like to forecast for next 2 months using 1 year data captured at monthly level. sample of the data 201702 7 201703 1344 201704 1311 201705 2645 201706 8581 201707 7271 201708 11550 ...
  • 21
1 vote
0 answers

Time Series forecasting using limited data [duplicate]

I am looking for some advice and guidance - I'm completing a Lvl 4 apprenticeship and I need to complete a time series forecast. Attempting to predict a target number of reports (x) on a category by ...
  • 11
0 votes
0 answers

How to do low scale time series prediction? [duplicate]

I have a small time series data with 10 observations Each observation is spaced at 20 days gap For example, I have sales revenue from day 1, day 21, day 41, day 61 till day 221... Now I would like to ...
  • 2,290
81 votes
10 answers

What is wrong with extrapolation?

I remember sitting in stats courses as an undergrad hearing about why extrapolation was a bad idea. Furthermore, there are a variety of sources online which comment on this. There's also a mention of ...
  • 1,074
56 votes
2 answers

Is it unusual for the MEAN to outperform ARIMA?

I recently applied a range of forecasting methods (MEAN, RWF, ETS, ARIMA and MLPs) and found that MEAN did surprisingly well. (MEAN: where all future predictions are predicted as been equal to the ...
  • 1,094
14 votes
7 answers

Are short time series worth modelling?

Here is some context. I am interested in determining how two environmental variables (temperature, nutrient levels) impact the mean value of a response variable over a 11 year period. Within each year,...
  • 363
23 votes
2 answers

Is Random Forest suitable for very small data sets?

I have data set comprising 24 rows of monthly data. The features are GDP, airport arrivals, month, and a few others. The dependent variable is number of visitors to a popular tourism destination. ...
  • 331
12 votes
2 answers

How to make predictions with non-parametric regression?

Let's say I have a dataset to which I have estimated a relationship using non-parametric regression, specifically Kernel (obviously in this hypothetical example it's probably overfit slightly). The ...
2 votes
3 answers

Predicting future values with a regression model

I have a set of predictor variables and a target variable. I am really confused with regards to what method to use for forecasting the target variable. For example, my data set has monthly customer ...
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