Linked Questions
42 questions linked to/from Best method for short time-series
3
votes
1
answer
570
views
Short time series forecast [duplicate]
We have a series of monthly data for 20 months (it is not possible to obtain more data). These are the number of medical consultations encoded in a public hospital and we only have monthly data for ...
- 31
0
votes
0
answers
307
views
What is the best model for forecasting if you have very less data points? [duplicate]
I recently got to work on a problem of forecasting five years of data. But I only had five data point from previous years i.e. yearly data (frequency = 1). The data is heteroskedastic. For example, [...
- 159
0
votes
0
answers
124
views
How to do Time Series analysis with only 10 data points [duplicate]
I think this is a basic question but really I just need a definite starting point.
I am working in R. I have a dataset as follows
...
- 147
0
votes
0
answers
66
views
How to forecast a very small time serie (26 observations)? [duplicate]
I need help to predict future values for a time series (26 observations of consumer prices).
This time series is not stationary (i.e I have increasing values of price).
What is the best method ...
- 11
0
votes
0
answers
50
views
Appropriate forecasting methods for only 20 observations [duplicate]
I am trying to forecast the regional GDP growth of our region in the next five years, I only have 20 observations in my data which is yearly, what forecasting model is appropriate?
I tried ARIMA in r ...
- 1
0
votes
0
answers
50
views
What is the best method for time series forecast for a time frame longer than data available [duplicate]
I am very new to data science, my question is what model should I use to predict for, let's say, the next 2 years if I only have data available for less than a year?
From what I read online, most ...
0
votes
0
answers
49
views
How to forecast using short data set? [duplicate]
I would like to forecast for next 2 months using 1 year data captured at monthly level.
sample of the data
201702 7
201703 1344
201704 1311
201705 2645
201706 8581
201707 7271
201708 11550
...
- 21
1
vote
0
answers
27
views
Time Series forecasting using limited data [duplicate]
I am looking for some advice and guidance - I'm completing a Lvl 4 apprenticeship and I need to complete a time series forecast.
Attempting to predict a target number of reports (x) on a category by ...
- 11
0
votes
0
answers
26
views
How to do low scale time series prediction? [duplicate]
I have a small time series data with 10 observations
Each observation is spaced at 20 days gap
For example, I have sales revenue from day 1, day 21, day 41, day 61 till day 221...
Now I would like to ...
- 2,290
81
votes
10
answers
79k
views
What is wrong with extrapolation?
I remember sitting in stats courses as an undergrad hearing about why extrapolation was a bad idea. Furthermore, there are a variety of sources online which comment on this. There's also a mention of ...
- 1,074
56
votes
2
answers
16k
views
Is it unusual for the MEAN to outperform ARIMA?
I recently applied a range of forecasting methods (MEAN, RWF, ETS, ARIMA and MLPs) and found that MEAN did surprisingly well. (MEAN: where all future predictions are predicted as been equal to the ...
- 1,094
14
votes
7
answers
8k
views
Are short time series worth modelling?
Here is some context. I am interested in determining how two environmental variables (temperature, nutrient levels) impact the mean value of a response variable over a 11 year period. Within each year,...
- 363
23
votes
2
answers
38k
views
Is Random Forest suitable for very small data sets?
I have data set comprising 24 rows of monthly data. The features are GDP, airport arrivals, month, and a few others. The dependent variable is number of visitors to a popular tourism destination. ...
- 331
12
votes
2
answers
1k
views
How to make predictions with non-parametric regression?
Let's say I have a dataset to which I have estimated a relationship using non-parametric regression, specifically Kernel (obviously in this hypothetical example it's probably overfit slightly). The ...
- 141
2
votes
3
answers
18k
views
Predicting future values with a regression model
I have a set of predictor variables and a target variable. I am really confused with regards to what method to use for forecasting the target variable.
For example, my data set has monthly customer ...
- 71