Linked Questions

3
votes
1answer
384 views

Short time series forecast [duplicate]

We have a series of monthly data for 20 months (it is not possible to obtain more data). These are the number of medical consultations encoded in a public hospital and we only have monthly data for ...
0
votes
0answers
301 views

What is the best model for forecasting if you have very less data points? [duplicate]

I recently got to work on a problem of forecasting five years of data. But I only had five data point from previous years i.e. yearly data (frequency = 1). The data is heteroskedastic. For example, [...
0
votes
0answers
107 views

How to do Time Series analysis with only 10 data points [duplicate]

I think this is a basic question but really I just need a definite starting point. I am working in R. I have a dataset as follows ...
0
votes
0answers
59 views

How to forecast a very small time serie (26 observations)? [duplicate]

I need help to predict future values for a time series (26 observations of consumer prices). This time series is not stationary (i.e I have increasing values of price). What is the best method ...
0
votes
0answers
42 views

How to forecast using short data set? [duplicate]

I would like to forecast for next 2 months using 1 year data captured at monthly level. sample of the data 201702 7 201703 1344 201704 1311 201705 2645 201706 8581 201707 7271 201708 11550 ...
76
votes
10answers
60k views

What is wrong with extrapolation?

I remember sitting in stats courses as an undergrad hearing about why extrapolation was a bad idea. Furthermore, there are a variety of sources online which comment on this. There's also a mention of ...
43
votes
2answers
10k views

Is it unusual for the MEAN to outperform ARIMA?

I recently applied a range of forecasting methods (MEAN, RWF, ETS, ARIMA and MLPs) and found that MEAN did surprisingly well. (MEAN: where all future predictions are predicted as been equal to the ...
14
votes
7answers
7k views

Are short time series worth modelling?

Here is some context. I am interested in determining how two environmental variables (temperature, nutrient levels) impact the mean value of a response variable over a 11 year period. Within each year,...
16
votes
2answers
20k views

Is Random Forest suitable for very small data sets?

I have data set comprising 24 rows of monthly data. The features are GDP, airport arrivals, month, and a few others. The dependent variable is number of visitors to a popular tourism destination. ...
2
votes
3answers
17k views

Predicting future values with a regression model

I have a set of predictor variables and a target variable. I am really confused with regards to what method to use for forecasting the target variable. For example, my data set has monthly customer ...
6
votes
2answers
3k views

Length of Time-Series for Forecasting Modeling

I'm working with mixed model for forecasting analysis. One of the decision that we want to take for the modeling is length of time-series, whether it should be 2 years or three years. So my question ...
4
votes
5answers
3k views

Forecasting a time series without significant autocorrelation

I have a time series without significant autocorrelation. http://pastebin.com/xZJnZs7k Autocorrelation plot. Partial autocorrelation plot. Here you can find a year worth of data and a forecast ...
5
votes
2answers
2k views

Median for forecasting in time series

I have a time series about demand of a product with many zeros. I was reading the forecasting book by Hyndman and Athanasopoulos [1] (section 2.3), which mentioned the average method for forecasting ...
3
votes
1answer
2k views

Providing 1 year monthly data (12 points), how to forecast next month

I got an interview question: Providing 1 year monthly data (12 points), can be traffic, product consumption, etc. How to forecast next month? I am confused. This question doesn't looks like a time ...
2
votes
2answers
1k views

ARIMA converges to mean

I tried auto.arima on my time series and the results converge to mean. Why does this happen? What can I do to correct the error in modelling? Here is my time ...

15 30 50 per page