Linked Questions

2
votes
0answers
85 views

How can we model a continuous coin tossing system to predict next tossing result and having a variable bias in the coin [duplicate]

Let's assume we have an unfair coin and a machine that toss it continuously. We counted the number of tandem heads. Whenever it's head we count 1, if it's head again, counter goes to two and so on. ...
482
votes
14answers
192k views

What is the intuition behind beta distribution?

Disclaimer: I'm not a statistician but a software engineer. Most of my knowledge in statistics comes from self-education, thus I still have many gaps in understanding concepts that may seem trivial ...
17
votes
1answer
8k views

Choosing between uninformative beta priors

I am looking for uninformative priors for beta distribution to work with a binomial process (Hit/Miss). At first I thought about using $\alpha=1, \beta=1$ that generate an uniform PDF, or Jeffrey ...
5
votes
1answer
6k views

Properly interpret the alpha / beta parameters in the Beta Distribution

For quite a while I believed that the proper interpretation of a Beta distribution with $\alpha$ and $\beta$ is: "what is the most likely $P$ given $\alpha -1 $ success (heads), and $\beta -1 $ of ...
10
votes
1answer
2k views

Formula for Bayesian A/B Testing doesn't make any sense

I'm using the formula from Bayesian ab testing in order to compute results of AB test using Bayesian methodology. $$ \Pr(p_B > p_A) = \sum^{\alpha_B-1}_{i=0} \frac{B(\alpha_A+i,\beta_B+\beta_A)}{(\...
4
votes
3answers
435 views

Bayesian prior via cross validation

I have a particular problem where I am using Bayesian techniques to estimate parameters of a distribution of a random variable. I would like to use an external source of data to determine an ...
5
votes
2answers
431 views

Calculating probability that a probability of heads lies in a given interval

Suppose you flip a coin $n$ times and you get heads $x$ times where $x < n$. By what confidence can you say that the probability of the coin showing heads during a random toss lies between $U_1$ ...
1
vote
1answer
2k views

Arm package: BayesGLM prior

I am modelling a logistic binomial response with around 10 (continuous and categorical) explanatory variables. I would like to model it as a bayesian glm and had a look at the bayesglm function on ARM ...
2
votes
1answer
1k views

How does the beta prior - binomial conjugate theory hold in classifiers?

In our machine learning class, we were given an example of a naive bayes classifier. Say, you classify a day as being good/bad depending on 2 conditions (the "X" input) - weather(X1 - hot/cold) and ...
1
vote
1answer
591 views

bayesian update of continuous beliefs

I know that the very similar question has been asked many times, but I hope that somebody can explain the mechanics in simple terms. Let's say there is a population of N=1000 people. A certain share <...
2
votes
1answer
124 views

In a Beta-Binomial 'Bayesian' A/B test, is it possible to add a third, fourth, etc. recipe?

For context: How to define prior for beta-binomial A/B test For P(A > B), you can draw samples from A's posterior and B's posterior and then count the number of times the sample from A is greater ...
1
vote
1answer
51 views

Confidence boundaries for an AB test [closed]

Given an AB-test, I have two variants running over a certain timeperiod gathering data. I split the time period up in smaller frames and cumulative add the population for the given variant as well as ...