226 views

### How can we model a continuous coin tossing system to predict next tossing result and having a variable bias in the coin [duplicate]

Let's assume we have an unfair coin and a machine that toss it continuously. We counted the number of tandem heads. Whenever it's head we count 1, if it's head again, counter goes to two and so on. ...
• 227
247k views

### What is the intuition behind beta distribution?

Disclaimer: I'm not a statistician but a software engineer. Most of my knowledge in statistics comes from self-education, thus I still have many gaps in understanding concepts that may seem trivial ...
• 10k
17k views

### Choosing between uninformative beta priors

I am looking for uninformative priors for beta distribution to work with a binomial process (Hit/Miss). At first I thought about using $\alpha=1, \beta=1$ that generate an uniform PDF, or Jeffrey ...
• 211
9k views

### Properly interpret the alpha / beta parameters in the Beta Distribution

For quite a while I believed that the proper interpretation of a Beta distribution with $\alpha$ and $\beta$ is: "what is the most likely $P$ given $\alpha -1$ success (heads), and $\beta -1$ of ...
3k views

### Formula for Bayesian A/B Testing doesn't make any sense

I'm using the formula from Bayesian ab testing in order to compute results of AB test using Bayesian methodology.  \Pr(p_B > p_A) = \sum^{\alpha_B-1}_{i=0} \frac{B(\alpha_A+i,\beta_B+\beta_A)}{(\...
1k views

### Calculating probability that a probability of heads lies in a given interval

Suppose you flip a coin $n$ times and you get heads $x$ times where $x < n$. By what confidence can you say that the probability of the coin showing heads during a random toss lies between $U_1$ ...
• 51
676 views

### Bayesian prior via cross validation

I have a particular problem where I am using Bayesian techniques to estimate parameters of a distribution of a random variable. I would like to use an external source of data to determine an ...
• 2,842
2k views

### Arm package: BayesGLM prior

I am modelling a logistic binomial response with around 10 (continuous and categorical) explanatory variables. I would like to model it as a bayesian glm and had a look at the bayesglm function on ARM ...
• 45
2k views

### How does the beta prior - binomial conjugate theory hold in classifiers?

In our machine learning class, we were given an example of a naive bayes classifier. Say, you classify a day as being good/bad depending on 2 conditions (the "X" input) - weather(X1 - hot/cold) and ...
1 vote
1k views

### bayesian update of continuous beliefs

I know that the very similar question has been asked many times, but I hope that somebody can explain the mechanics in simple terms. Let's say there is a population of N=1000 people. A certain share <...
• 145