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### How can we model a continuous coin tossing system to predict next tossing result and having a variable bias in the coin [duplicate]

Let's assume we have an unfair coin and a machine that toss it continuously. We counted the number of tandem heads. Whenever it's head we count 1, if it's head again, counter goes to two and so on. ...
192k views

### What is the intuition behind beta distribution?

Disclaimer: I'm not a statistician but a software engineer. Most of my knowledge in statistics comes from self-education, thus I still have many gaps in understanding concepts that may seem trivial ...
8k views

### Choosing between uninformative beta priors

I am looking for uninformative priors for beta distribution to work with a binomial process (Hit/Miss). At first I thought about using $\alpha=1, \beta=1$ that generate an uniform PDF, or Jeffrey ...
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### Properly interpret the alpha / beta parameters in the Beta Distribution

For quite a while I believed that the proper interpretation of a Beta distribution with $\alpha$ and $\beta$ is: "what is the most likely $P$ given $\alpha -1$ success (heads), and $\beta -1$ of ...
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### Formula for Bayesian A/B Testing doesn't make any sense

I'm using the formula from Bayesian ab testing in order to compute results of AB test using Bayesian methodology.  \Pr(p_B > p_A) = \sum^{\alpha_B-1}_{i=0} \frac{B(\alpha_A+i,\beta_B+\beta_A)}{(\...
435 views

### Bayesian prior via cross validation

I have a particular problem where I am using Bayesian techniques to estimate parameters of a distribution of a random variable. I would like to use an external source of data to determine an ...
431 views

### Calculating probability that a probability of heads lies in a given interval

Suppose you flip a coin $n$ times and you get heads $x$ times where $x < n$. By what confidence can you say that the probability of the coin showing heads during a random toss lies between $U_1$ ...
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### Arm package: BayesGLM prior

I am modelling a logistic binomial response with around 10 (continuous and categorical) explanatory variables. I would like to model it as a bayesian glm and had a look at the bayesglm function on ARM ...
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### How does the beta prior - binomial conjugate theory hold in classifiers?

In our machine learning class, we were given an example of a naive bayes classifier. Say, you classify a day as being good/bad depending on 2 conditions (the "X" input) - weather(X1 - hot/cold) and ...
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### bayesian update of continuous beliefs

I know that the very similar question has been asked many times, but I hope that somebody can explain the mechanics in simple terms. Let's say there is a population of N=1000 people. A certain share <...