Linked Questions

0
votes
0answers
21 views

Testing forecast accuracy in Excel [duplicate]

I'm looking for some advice on how to determine how accurate a forecast is. Basically, what I have is 23 years of competitive results for a particular sport (10000+ matches). The matches are broken ...
1
vote
0answers
19 views

How correctly overcome problem with an infinity MAPE? [duplicate]

Should I choose an other metric or is the way to handle this problem?
29
votes
1answer
21k views

What are the shortcomings of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)?

The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (mape) is a common accuracy or error measure for time series or other predictions, $$ \text{MAPE} = \frac{100}{n}\sum_{t=1}^n\frac{|A_t-F_t|}{A_t}\%,$$ where $A_t$ ...
3
votes
3answers
19k views

Interpreting accuracy results for an ARIMA model fit

I want to know how accurate one ARIMA model is for estimating a second time series. I've built the model: ...
4
votes
1answer
12k views

Which is the best accuracy measuring criteria among rmse, mae & mape?

I have created training set and test set from my data. Then I performed auto.arima() and ets() in R on the training set to predict one-step ahead forecasts. These were then compared with the test set ...
3
votes
2answers
4k views

Difference between forecasting accuracy and forecasting error?

I am working on a demand forecasting project and I am puzzled by the client's standards of forecast evaluation. The MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) with the sample data Forecast = 300 and Demand ...
2
votes
2answers
2k views

Forecasting Intermittent Demand with zeroes in times series

I am trying to forecast intermittent demand (slow movers and extreme slow movers). Here's the type of data I am working with weekly data so I cannot really group it has zeroes in time series not ...
2
votes
1answer
307 views

Need advice on evaluating forecast accuracy in R

I'm trying to evaluate some software for forecast accuracy. It works by summing up all the orders from a number of locations for each month, then determines the best model out of a series of models ...
1
vote
2answers
740 views

accuracy of a regression prediction model

I developed two prediction models using non-linear regression analysis to predict a set of values using sigmoidal and power functions. I was wondering how I can evaluate the accuracy of these ...
3
votes
2answers
209 views

Removing leading zeros from time series

Currently, I am working with a lot of time series data. A lot of my time series data have a lot of leading zeros. For example, ...
0
votes
1answer
792 views

How to calculate median absolute deviation in a cross validation scenario?

In a cross validation scenario "leave one out" I want to measure how the estimated continuous variable fits with the observed variable. I learned from Wikipedia that the Median absolute deviation (MAD)...
2
votes
1answer
263 views

How to find accuracy of one graph relative to another

Let's say I have a table with 2 columns (data sets), and convert them into 2 graphs. I have the graph of a stock (=col. 1), and then I simulate using some mathematical model, a prediction of the ...
2
votes
1answer
147 views

Predictive distribution: What can we say about the prediction?

I am wondering what could we obtain more from the predictive distribution. Give a set of data, say $\mathcal{D}=\{(x_i,y_i)\}$, we want to predict the value s$Y_{new}$ at new locations, say $X_{new}$. ...
1
vote
1answer
134 views

Regression when target has a wide range

I'm working on a regression model where I have to predict time. These times go from a few seconds to up to 30 min and more. I calculated the sMAPE through 1 minute bins of the target, and noticed ...
2
votes
1answer
153 views

How to meaningfully compute the accuracy of a multi-step forecast produced by a model

I am trying to measure the accuracy of my model in producing a multi-step forecast and I have read a lot of different opinions on the matter and am now rather confused. The goal of my model is to ...

15 30 50 per page