21 views

### Testing forecast accuracy in Excel [duplicate]

I'm looking for some advice on how to determine how accurate a forecast is. Basically, what I have is 23 years of competitive results for a particular sport (10000+ matches). The matches are broken ...
19 views

### How correctly overcome problem with an infinity MAPE? [duplicate]

Should I choose an other metric or is the way to handle this problem?
21k views

### What are the shortcomings of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)?

The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (mape) is a common accuracy or error measure for time series or other predictions, $$\text{MAPE} = \frac{100}{n}\sum_{t=1}^n\frac{|A_t-F_t|}{A_t}\%,$$ where $A_t$ ...
19k views

### Interpreting accuracy results for an ARIMA model fit

I want to know how accurate one ARIMA model is for estimating a second time series. I've built the model: ...
12k views

### Which is the best accuracy measuring criteria among rmse, mae & mape?

I have created training set and test set from my data. Then I performed auto.arima() and ets() in R on the training set to predict one-step ahead forecasts. These were then compared with the test set ...
4k views

### Difference between forecasting accuracy and forecasting error?

I am working on a demand forecasting project and I am puzzled by the client's standards of forecast evaluation. The MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) with the sample data Forecast = 300 and Demand ...
2k views

### Forecasting Intermittent Demand with zeroes in times series

I am trying to forecast intermittent demand (slow movers and extreme slow movers). Here's the type of data I am working with weekly data so I cannot really group it has zeroes in time series not ...
307 views

### Need advice on evaluating forecast accuracy in R

I'm trying to evaluate some software for forecast accuracy. It works by summing up all the orders from a number of locations for each month, then determines the best model out of a series of models ...
740 views

### accuracy of a regression prediction model

I developed two prediction models using non-linear regression analysis to predict a set of values using sigmoidal and power functions. I was wondering how I can evaluate the accuracy of these ...
209 views

### Removing leading zeros from time series

Currently, I am working with a lot of time series data. A lot of my time series data have a lot of leading zeros. For example, ...
792 views

### How to calculate median absolute deviation in a cross validation scenario?

In a cross validation scenario "leave one out" I want to measure how the estimated continuous variable fits with the observed variable. I learned from Wikipedia that the Median absolute deviation (MAD)...
263 views

### How to find accuracy of one graph relative to another

Let's say I have a table with 2 columns (data sets), and convert them into 2 graphs. I have the graph of a stock (=col. 1), and then I simulate using some mathematical model, a prediction of the ...
147 views

### Predictive distribution: What can we say about the prediction?

I am wondering what could we obtain more from the predictive distribution. Give a set of data, say $\mathcal{D}=\{(x_i,y_i)\}$, we want to predict the value s$Y_{new}$ at new locations, say $X_{new}$. ...