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1 answer
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Lag between forecasted and actual values ARDL

I am computing forecasts with ARDL models of different lag length across both dependent and independent variables. Regardless of the lag lengths, the actual observations for the dependent variable lag ...
efan787's user avatar
  • 25
1 vote
0 answers
449 views

Good books on autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL)

I would like to find a book on ARDl not part of a general time series book, but focused on ARDL primarily (I have read books on time series and articles on ARDL already - I want an extensive treatment ...
4 votes
2 answers
4k views

Time series with autoregressive distributed lags: Forecasting for future

I have daily data from last 2 years. I want to do ARIMAX and the regressor component being autoregressive distributed lag of the same variable. Since it has impact, along with dummy variables to ...
StatguyUser's user avatar
  • 1,124
4 votes
0 answers
2k views

Analysis of Multiple Time Series Data with Exogenous Shocks

Real Life ProblemThis one is a tough one and some crowd sourcing seems like a good way to get some feedback. I am trying to determine the effect of Non-Farm Payroll surprises on a subsector of the ...
Stuart Allan's user avatar
5 votes
2 answers
2k views

Autoregressive distributed lag model

I have one dependent variable (water consumption) and one independent variable (rainfall). The water consumption variable is non-stationary, so I differenced it to make it stationary. Meanwhile, ...
harithstats's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers
1k views

ARIMAX model or ARDL?

I would like to study the impact the advertising of a product on its sales (weekly data for 5 years). As the final aim is to forecast what would be the impact on sales of a change in the advertising ...
Maria's user avatar
  • 11
1 vote
0 answers
2k views

Forecasting an ADL model

I am fairly new to Stata, currently taking an undergrad time series econometric class. The economic significance of the regression I am running and attempting to forecast is all but zero; this is ...
Henry Indvik's user avatar