Questions tagged [bernoulli-process]
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34
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Bernoulli Cusum Chart?
Can I use the R package named 'cusum' to make bernoulli cusum charts or should I use another package?
I've been asked to explore using Bernoulli cusum chart for trending a parameter that's usually 0 ...
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1answer
38 views
How can Bayes avoid Cromwell?
I'm studying widgets and their failures. Generally a widget will run for many years without trouble, but 1-2% of widgets will fail in a given year. I have a table which lists widget manufacturers (A, ...
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39 views
Bayesian hierarchical coin flip model
My question is: what is the marginal probability $P(x_1, x_2, \dots, x_n | y_1, y_2, \dots, y_n, \alpha, \beta)$ or $P(X|Y, \alpha, \beta)$? in the following model:
$\phi \sim \text{Beta}(\alpha, \...
3
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3answers
107 views
How to calculate a confidence interval for a series of Bernoulli Trials?
I have to test if a event have a p probability of happening. I can run this event as much times I like (given it can be run by a computer). So I was searching a way ...
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1answer
17 views
How can I use the distribution of run lengths to test if a sequence is generated from flips of a fair coin?
I have a very long sequence (in the tens of thousands) of binary outcomes from some data-generating process. I believe that these outcomes are iid Bernoulli trials with p = 0.5, equivalent to flipping ...
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1answer
44 views
Question related to equation in paper involving bernoulli process
So I'm reading a paper about optimization of design of structures.
The author defines H(p) as the function that returns the cost of failure given decision variable <...
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0answers
74 views
calculating credible intervals for Bernoulli trials with a beta-distribution
I'm interested in finding credible intervals for Bernoulli trials with a variable probability of success.
So, the process (as I understand it) is the probability of success, p, is modeled with a ...
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2answers
94 views
Detecting change in p of a Bernoulli process
A machine outputs either a 0 or a 1 each second. We denote this output at time $t$ as $b_t$. The probability that it outputs 1 is $p_t$ at time $t$. How do we go about studying the change in $p_t$ in $...
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1answer
160 views
How to determine minimum sample size for Bernoulli trials at a given confidence level?
I want to determine whether the true bounce rate of an email campaign (an email sent to many recipients) is <20%, at the 99% confidence level. I can send one "test batch" of randomly selected ...
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0answers
31 views
Is average stopping time a continuous function of Bernoulli parameter?
Consider an infinite sequence $X = (X_i)_{i \in \mathbb N}$ of i.i.d Bernoulli random variables with (unknown) parameter $p \in (0,1)$, and let $N$ be a stopping time on $X$. Is it always the case ...
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81 views
What is a name of this Bernoulli-like process with dependent trials?
The process is defined similarly to the Bernoulli process composed of $n$ Bernoulli trials. The difference is that the trials are dependent, that is:
$$
P(X_i = 1 | X_1, ..., X_{i-1}) = \frac{m -\...
6
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1answer
389 views
Independent Bernoulli trials vs markov chain
Original Question
Suppose we have a sequence of Bernoulli trials $X_1, X_2, \cdots X_T$ which are ordered in time and may or may not be independent. I am interested in understanding the probability ...
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0answers
63 views
Transforming Categorical (a.k.a. Nominal) data to Bernoulli Variables
I've been doing some multivariate analysis for a dataset that contains, for the most part, categorical data. For example, I have two which are:
gender (M or F)
state (A, B or C)
and each observation ...
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2answers
49 views
What type of statistical test should be used to compare successes of two treatments?
Say I have two treatments, "hot" and "cold".
I care about a certain outcome, say "success".
I have data on the number of successes out of, say 100 trials in the "hot" treatment.
Similarly, I have data ...
2
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0answers
48 views
Write a Bernoulli distributed random variable using uniforms
Consider the real-valued random variables $\{X_{ij}\}_{\forall (i,j)\in \mathbb{N}^2, i<j}$ and the real-valued random variables $(\xi_0, \{\xi_i\}_{\forall i \in \mathbb{N}})$, where $\mathbb{N}$ ...
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2answers
1k views
Success of Bernoulli trials with different probabilities and without replacement
Assuming $n$ independent Bernoulli trials with different probabilities, the Poisson binomial distribution is the discrete probability distribution that describes the number of $X$ successes.
A ...
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1answer
81 views
Bernoulli parameter in the following partitioning schemes
Suppose I have a Bernoulli process: $2n$ Bernoulli observations whose locations are distributed over an interval, say $(0,1]$. Conditional on the locations, $x_k\stackrel{iid}{\sim}Bern(\theta)$, $k=1,...
5
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1answer
342 views
Number of Bernoulli trials to first success, with changing $p$
[A version of this question was previously posted by another user, but the OP deleted rather than edit the question into a more suitable form for routine textbook work. I am reposting in the hope of ...
5
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1answer
624 views
Maximum likelihood estimation of a Poisson binomial distribution
According to Wikipedia,
the Poisson binomial distribution is the discrete probability distribution of a sum of independent Bernoulli trials that are not necessarily identically distributed
In ...
4
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1answer
1k views
Age and residual life time of the Poisson process
Original Question
Let $N(t)$ be a Poisson process with intensity $\lambda$. Let $T_1<T_2<...$ be the occurrence times. Let $T_0=0$. For any $t>0$, define the $age$ random variable to be
$...
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71 views
Training set for Bernoulli Process: retain number of “1” examples in proportion to process?
Given a Bernoulli Process, should my training set have a number of "1" examples in proportion to the process?
For example, a Bernoulli Process is "1" 10% of the time and "0" otherwise. In a training ...
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0answers
115 views
Combinations of Bernoulli Trials
I recently asked another question, which I have linked here: Combining Binomial Random Variables. I wanted to add onto that question, so I am asking in a different thread.
Brief recap of previous ...
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1answer
1k views
Understanding Bernoulli and logit function
currently I am reading a paper and trying too implement what is in the paper by myself. I plan to implement using R. I'm stuck at below part:
I understand the X and Z but I'm not familiar with ...
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101 views
Convergence of a sequence of Binomial variable with changing probability
Consider a $t\in(0,1)$. Consider, for $\Delta>0$ the random variable
$X_t^{(\Delta)}$ defined as
$$
\mathbb{P}[X_t^{(\Delta)}=1]=\left(1-\lambda\,\Delta\right)^{\left\lfloor t/\Delta\right\...
1
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1answer
67 views
How many Bernoulli trials to have N successes in series with restarts?
Bernoulli trials are sequences of 0 and 1. What is the average length, the number of trials, that you need to perform until you reach n ones in sequence?
I tried to make it with a 2D recursion
Here ...
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1answer
995 views
What is the value of π in this experiment(Bernoulli)?
Experiment: You roll a fair 6-sided die 5 times.
Define the random variable x = number of times you rolled an even number.
The probability of exactly X successes in n trials for a Bernoulli process ...
5
votes
1answer
123 views
Number of trials necessary to demonstrate Bernoulli process doesn't have mean p
I have a Bernoulli process that purportedly has mean $x$ but I hypothesize that the process actually has mean $q$. How many trials are necessary to demonstrate (to some confidence $p$) that the actual ...
0
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1answer
100 views
Distribution of number of Bernoulli trials before some large number of sucess [duplicate]
We repeatedly make an experiment where we count the number $n$ of Bernoulli trials of known probability $p$, until some number of successes $s$ is reached. I'm willing to restrict to $p<0.01$ and $...
57
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13answers
36k views
Does 10 heads in a row increase the chance of the next toss being a tail?
I assume the following is true: assuming a fair coin, getting 10 heads in a row whilst tossing a coin does not increase the chance of the next coin toss being a tail, no matter what amount of ...
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1answer
251 views
Bit Error Rate - Multiple Bernoulli trials with different probabilities
If you transmit a sequence of bits over some line, errors may creep in. For instance, if the Bit Error Rate of this line is 1%, on average, every 1 out of 100 bits will flip to the opposite value.
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Bounds on binary event estimation [duplicate]
I would like to paint an objective picture of some binary outcome.
Now I have data like this: 1085x yes, 1704x no. The percentage of the positive outcome is 40.72%, but I want to give an estimation ...
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1answer
846 views
Sum of Beta-Bernoulli variables
Assume you have $x_i \sim \operatorname{Bernoulli}(p_i)$ with $p_i \sim \operatorname{Beta}(\alpha,\beta)$.
I am exploring $Z=X_1+ \dots +X_n$
According to this page, it is
$Z \sim \operatorname{...
2
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2answers
119 views
Subsample of a random sample?
I am stuck with a very simple question, but I don't really understand sampling, so please help me.
Assume that I perform Bernoulli sampling with parameter q on data D, and obtain sample S1. Then on ...
2
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1answer
154 views
How does this trick for estimating bit error rate break down?
Imagine you are receiving a message over and over via a lossy data path. The path causes bit errors but does not affect the length of the message (or shift any bits). You don't know the actual ...
