Questions tagged [causality]

The relationship between cause and effect.

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9
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525 views

Propensity Score Matching – How do the mechanics lead to a different result than unmatched?

The gist of propensity score matching, as I understand it, is as follows: You want to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) of a treatment on some outcome. However, if you simply calculate the ...
6
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0answers
261 views

Avoiding adjustments for time-varying controls in difference-in-differences (DID)?

In difference-in-differences (DID) analysis, it seems like a "folk theorem" that one should be very wary of adjusting for time-varying controls. The reason, eminently plausible, is that ...
6
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1answer
5k views

Difference-in-difference in panel data

Under which conditions should we expect the difference-in-difference estimate to be equal to the equivalent panel data model? Strictly speaking, whenever we have a experiment that offers a well ...
5
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128 views

Regression where predictors are correlated with past values of y

Setup We are interested in estimating a model for the following setup: $Y_t=\beta_0 + \beta_1^{'}X^{'}_t + \epsilon_t$ $COV(X^{'}_t,Y_{t-1,t-2,...,1} | X_{t-1,t-2,...,1}) = 0$ Where $\epsilon_t$ is ...
5
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1answer
253 views

Instrumental variables: In which cases would the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) and local average treatment effect (LATE) be similar?

It seems that if the proportion of always-takers in the control group (to whom eligibility was not assigned) is much smaller than the proportion of compliers in the treatment group (to whom ...
5
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1answer
50 views

Treatment interference (causal analysis)

I am doing research on students and their perception of their grades. Specifically, I want to do an experiment where students either (a) see their actual grades in a course (as a percentage) - the ...
5
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0answers
46 views

Before using CV-selected Regression model for Inference, shouldn't model performance be evaluated on unused test set?

I just came across a biokinesiology paper that used some Machine Learning methods, but I think there is a flaw in their methodology. The authors had data on stroke patients and used Lasso regression ...
5
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0answers
222 views

Structural equation and causal model in economics

Structural equations is a useful language for causal analysis in economics. In Causality Pearl (2009 cap 5) we can find the best discussion about this. My question: is possible to use the concept of ...
5
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1answer
112 views

Conterfactual estimation in machine learning model

There are various techniques to build counterfactual estimations of certain variables for linear models in observational studies. Some of those are based on comparing the change in the predicted ...
5
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0answers
357 views

Machine Learning for Causal Inference with Panel Data: Possible to combine ML estimators with additive/linear terms to derive diff-in-diff estimator?

My question is motivated by the following. First consider the non-panel case, where we have two groups, the treated group ($g=t$) and the comparison group ($g=c$), and are trying to estimate an ...
5
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0answers
768 views

How can I control for time-varying unobserved heterogeneity with panel data?

I'm just beginning to learn econometrics, and I just learned about the fixed effects estimator, and the first-difference estimator. It's quite straightforward that those techniques allow me to control ...
5
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0answers
70 views

Ranking of causal models

I remember seeing a paper that ranked causal statistical models, published by some research body, by quality in terms of generalizability or some similar facet(s). This would be a "hierarchy of ...
4
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0answers
45 views

Causal Bayesian network, causal diagram, structural causal model and marginal structural model: what do they exactly mean?

In the Book of Why, Judea Pearl gives a comprehensive overview of the causal diagrams (or causal graphs), but to me, the terminology is not clear yet. In the book, he presents Bayesian network in the ...
4
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1answer
88 views

Comparing time series data with multiple pairs of time series, or difference-in-difference with continuous treatment conditions?

My dataset contains time-series for two variables ($X$ and $Y$) from 2017 to 2020, for each of many different countries. Each country has its own time series for each variable (X_usa, X_india, Y_usa, ...
4
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0answers
92 views

Why is BART so accurate in causal inference?

The famous paper Dorie,2017 shows that BART performs dramatically well in causal inference. In my replication, MSE in BART can be 40% lower than MSE in other machine learning methods. But all machine ...
4
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49 views

How is EMSE derived for causal trees in Athey and Imbens (PNAS 2016)?

Athey and Imbens build a non-parametric matching procedure to identify and estimate causal effects. To this end, they minimize the expected mean squared error (EMSE) of their procedure, but I don't ...
4
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1answer
121 views

Are model diagnostics necessary for linear model run on matched data?

On https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/cem/vignettes/cem.pdf, it mentions that "Using the output from cem, we can estimate SATT via the att function. The simplest approach requires a weighted ...
4
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210 views

Causality in Time Series

I am reading an article which is trying to justify the need for causal inference in their inferential framework. The thought experiment is as follows: Suppose a statistician is asked to design a ...
4
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0answers
59 views

Adjusting for experimentally-caused panel attrition when evaluating treatment effects

This question involves a questionable hypothetical scenario, but please bear with me. Suppose I ran an experiment in a coffee stand where the treatment was playing country music instead of the usual ...
3
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0answers
80 views

All-subsets regression and parameter shift to estimate or identify omitted variable biases?

I have multiple ($12$) predictors ($X$) for an outcome (spending) where it's likely/possible that: Some predictors are correlated Some predictors could (partially) mediate the effect of others There ...
3
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0answers
23 views

Reverse Causality with Additional Period

I have been struggling for a model to estimate related to sequential treatment effect and need a help desperately. I would greatly appreciate it if you guide me to the resources or advice me on this ...
3
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20 views

How to find the [marginal] effect of X on Y when Y is binary and very rare. Can I make groups of similar X and model counts of Y instead?

tl;dr How to model the causal impact of X on binary Y when Y is very rare. Can I make groups and model count instead? Background/What I tried I want to know what the effect of the number of "...
3
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0answers
43 views

Failing to fully control for a variable

Lets assume we want to perform a 'reduced-form' causal analysis to evaluate the impact of a program on the dependent variable of interest. (However the question is more universal). Lets further assume,...
3
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0answers
51 views

Extending external validation diagnostics to experiments with continuous treatment

Does the external validation diagnostic methods discussed in Stuart et al. (2011) (i.e., inverse propensity score weighted regressions) also apply to the experimental setting in which the treatment is ...
3
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275 views

Regression: Causation vs Prediction vs Description

In my experience it seems me that the interpretation about regression, its meaning and its scope, are debatable and great confusion exist about those things. It seems me that confusions are not go ...
3
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1answer
43 views

Measuring the causal impact of a policy that is not binding

This may be a little tricky because it's difficult to explain but bear with me. Assume a new policy implemented in 2015 which is a new requirement for firms, let's say for instance that the ...
3
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0answers
70 views

How come parents of $X$ always satisfy the backdoor criterion relative to $(X,Y)$?

Pearl et al. "Causal Inference in Statistics: A Primer" (2016) p. 61 presents the backdoor criterion: Definition 3.3.1 (The Backdoor Criterion) Given an ordered pair of variables $(X,Y)$ in a ...
3
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0answers
171 views

Mathematical details in the definition of a Structural Causal Model

Pearl defines (see Causality, Judea Pearl, 2nd ed., Definition 7.1.1) a Structural Causal Model (SCM) as a triple $(\mathscr U, \mathscr V, F)$ where $\mathscr U$ is a set of "exogenous variables," $\...
3
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203 views

Theory behind Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE)

There are many fine how-to articles describing how to implement TMLE but they avoid the details of the underlying theory. I'm currently working my way through Targeted Learning: Causal Inference for ...
3
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0answers
41 views

Applying Heterogeneous treatment effects to clinical research (non technical explanation)

I'm trying to understand the hype around this estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects in the machine learning literature lately. It seems super interesting, but alot of it is beyond me. I read ...
3
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0answers
29 views

Causality in variance with a BEKK model

I am using a BEKK model in the following form, $$H_t=C^\ast{C^\ast}^\prime+\sum_{i=1}^{m}{A_i\varepsilon_{t-i}\varepsilon_{t-i}A_i^\prime+\sum_{j=1}^{s}{B_jH_{t-j}B_j^\prime}}$$ I first start with a ...
3
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0answers
390 views

How to relate roots of AR and MA to unit circle

I'm working on these problems and think I figured out most of the steps, but am stuck near the end as I don't understand how to relate my roots back to the unit circle in order to determine ...
3
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0answers
596 views

Pro and cons between Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) vs difference-in-differences?

Google's paper markets BSTS's benefits over DID such that "In contrast to classical difference-in-differences schemes, state-space models make it possible to (i) infer the temporal evolution of ...
3
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1answer
250 views

Invariance of causal prediction

I am reading Causal inference by using invariant prediction: identification and confidence intervals by Jonas Peters (link to the resource is here: https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/...
3
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0answers
31 views

What simple test-case and corresponding solution, would demonstrate what it is possible to achieve using causation/precedence-analysis techniques

What would be minimal test-case(s) and corresponding solution, demonstrating curent know-how in causation/precedence analysis solving, or more simply what is it possible to achieve using causation/...
3
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0answers
1k views

Marketing/Sales Mix/Response Models: approaches and comparisons

CV/SO Community: I am probably skirting (or crossing) the line of the preference for questions that can be answered vs. those that can (only) be discussed. That said, I'm trying to wrap my head ...
3
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0answers
116 views

When does the Rubin Causal Model fail in practice?

The Rubin Causal Model frames the causal inference question as the problem of inferring missing potential outcomes (what the outcome would have been if a unit had received a different treatment) in ...
3
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0answers
500 views

reverse causality when dependent variable and independent variable are observed on different levels

Consider the following: $$ Y_{ijt} = \gamma \cdot P_{jt} +X_{ijt} \beta+\epsilon_{ijt} $$ The j dimension is only indicated for clarity, the regression is a panel regression on i-t dimensions. The ...
3
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0answers
483 views

Estimating a confidence interval around the average of an interacted treatment effect

I've got a causal inference situation with heterogeneous treatment effects. In addition to simply estimating coefficients, I'd like to get an average effect of the treatment at the covariate values ...
3
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0answers
54 views

Guessing test question answers from scores

My teacher likes to give online quizzes that are about 20-30 questions long. Every student has the same questions in the same order. We are not told after taking the quiz which questions we got wrong, ...
3
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0answers
606 views

Heterogeneous Treatment Effects - How to test differences in the ATE?

I want to conduct a simple propensity score estimation where the treatment $D_i$ is a binary variable ($D_i=1$ individual $i$ participates in the labor market program, zero otherwise). I estimate the ...
3
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0answers
803 views

Implication / Interpretation of long term equilibrium VECM

I want to test the influence of exchange rates on a price index and struggle with the interpretations. My variables are I(1) First, I ran an OLS on first differenced variables which indicated a ...
3
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0answers
680 views

Inductive vs deductive Inference

I am curious to know exactly, what are the (possible) differences between inductive and deductive statistical inferences in applied statistics. Suggestions for some good resources to learn their ...
3
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0answers
538 views

Matched Analysis with Complex Survey Data

Complex survey data is that typically found produced by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) or the NSLY; it typically contains information on PSU, strata, and weights. To make nationally ...
2
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0answers
20 views

Does education level affect salary?

This is an interview question that I came across, and I'm not sure how to answer it. There are two ways of phrasing a causal question: If someone has a high salary, was it because they had a high ...
2
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0answers
87 views

Size of Complier Group (Instrumental Variables) - Mostly Harmless vs. Abadie Kappa

Focusing solely on the case with a binary endogenous explanatory variable $D$ and binary instrument $Z$ and control variables $X$, Angrist & Pischke 2009 ("Mostly Harmless Econometrics") ...
2
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0answers
40 views

Non-causal AR models

There is a theorem which states that for a non-causal AR(MA) process, you can produce another equation for $X_t$, with a different (but related) white noise sequence, which is causal. (See the clipped ...
2
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0answers
54 views

complex Difference-in-difference formula

I have 5-year sales information from a grocery store in Canada. I want to check whether an event that happened in 2017, affected the effect of the price of a product on its sales. For example, imagine ...
2
votes
1answer
52 views

Does convergent cross-mapping require you to control for other variables?

There's a really cool method called convergent cross-mapping (Tsonis et al. (2018)) that's used to see if two time-series are causally linked within a dynamic system. It seems really powerful and like ...
2
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0answers
41 views

how to measure the causal impact of interventions which happen at different times on different time series?

My data consists of a bunch of time series of daily clicks on some merchandises on a website, a portion of which have an intervention (only 1 intervention per time series), others don't. The ...

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