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Questions tagged [coverage-probability]

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6
votes
0answers
51 views

Posterior variance vs variance of the posterior mean

This question is about the frequentist properties of Bayesian methods. Suppose we have data ${\bf y}$ generated from a distribution with a single parameter $\theta$, equipped with a prior $\pi(\...
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0answers
30 views

How to calculate coverage rates for 95% confidence intervals for estimands (like regression coefficients)?

I'm working on a Synthetic Data Generation model, and I'm confused about a metric mentioned in a seminal paper (details of paper added below) Context: Synthetic Data Generation involves sampling from ...
0
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0answers
27 views

Conditional coverage probability

Suppose I'm interested in a population mean $\mu$ of some finite discrete variable $Y \sim P$ defined on $\mathbb{R}$. I have a $100(1-\alpha)\%$ confidence interval for the sample estimate $\hat{\mu}$...
0
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0answers
128 views

What is the difference between Recall and Coverage?

I am unfamiliar with Coverage - and in the past thought it were simply a less precise referral to Recall. However I do see ...
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0answers
79 views

How to calculate coverage probability in R for cauchy distribution?

I know that the coverage probability is $P(|\hat{\theta}-\theta|\leq\epsilon)$. My task is to compare estimators of the Cauchy distribution for the location $\theta$. I've plotted the estimators and ...
3
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2answers
78 views

coverage index?

Suppose I have a space of potential outcomes X with a probability distribution on it. I assume that there is a distance function between elements of X (e.g. X is a metric space). I also have a set S ...
0
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0answers
187 views

Coverage probability for the Bayesian credible interval for Normal distribution

Bayesian Inference for the Normal Distribution, I use the following r code to obtain the posterior distribution. Let's say the data, $X\sim N(\mu, \sigma^{2})$ and $\mu \sim N(0,10)$ and $\sigma \sim \...
5
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3answers
160 views

Joint credible regions from MCMC draws

Lets say I have $n$ posterior samples of $\theta_1$ and $\theta_2$. I suppose that any region $R$ which contains exactly $(1-\alpha)n$ of the points will be an approximate $(1-\alpha)\times100$ ...
3
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2answers
179 views

Econometrics: What will happen if I have a biased estimator (either positively or negatively biased) when constructing the confidence interval

Suppose that the OLS estimator for $\beta_j$ is in fact biased. How would this affect the use of confidence intervals as hypothesis testing tools (assuming a two-tailed test)? That is, what sort of ...
1
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1answer
62 views

Interpretation of values contained in a confidence interval [duplicate]

Are the values within a confidence interval those that do not significantly differ from the point estimate? Or, put differently, how do we interpret the values contained in a CI given that the CI is ...
3
votes
1answer
56 views

convergence in probability for symmetric beta density

I am trying to solve the following problem. Prove that for $X_n\sim \operatorname{Beta}(n,n)$ , $X_n $ converges in probability to $\frac {1}{2}$. This is what I tried: Since as $ n\rightarrow \...
1
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0answers
130 views

Comparing the results of four missing data imputation methods

Below are the Bias, MSE and Coverage of four missing data imputation methods at different percentages of missing values. From these we can see that, m4 method gives ...
2
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2answers
118 views

Assessing model prediction performance using tolerance interval coverage

I am trying to assess a model's prediction performance, and one metric I look at is the percentage of new observations that fall within the 95% tolerance interval, and see whether or not it is ...
0
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1answer
113 views

Number of replications needed for coverage probability study

I am constructing confidence interval based on Wald, likelihood ratio and jackknife for the parameters of a model via simulation. To evaluate which methods is preferable for the parameters, I did a ...
1
vote
1answer
1k views

Second order inclusion probabilities in With-Replacement Sampling

I'm reading the book "Model Assisted Survey Sampling" from Särndal et al. In chapter 2, there's a section about Sampling with replacement. I'll put this into context: We have $m$ independent draws, ...
0
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1answer
134 views

Underestimated Coverage probability

Let $U0$ denotes intercept variance and $U1$ denotes slope variance. Given that the coverage rate for the intercept variance is $91$% $(U0)$ , and the coverage rate for the slope variance is $91.2$% $...
21
votes
2answers
510 views

confidence intervals' coverage with regularized estimates

Suppose I'm trying to estimate a large number of parameters from some high-dimensional data, using some kind of regularized estimates. The regularizer introduces some bias into the estimates, but it ...
0
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2answers
395 views

coverage of confidence interval

I need to check the coverage of a confidence interval, but I don't know which one of the following approaches I should use. Approach 1: Estimate the regression parameter $\theta$ Use the sandwich ...
2
votes
0answers
179 views

Confidence Intervals of a Given Width

I'm working through some questions on confidence intervals. My answer doesn't match the book, but the book's answer was a number I had a few steps before the end. I have ten numbers which are a ...
12
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3answers
342 views

Regarding convergence in probability

Let $\{X_n\}_{n\geq 1}$ be a sequence of random variables s.t $X_n \to a$ in probability, where $a>0$ is a fixed constant. I'm trying to show the following: $$\sqrt{X_n} \to \sqrt{a}$$ and $$\frac{...
0
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1answer
153 views

Convergence of Sum of Sums of random variables : trivial?

I have a sequence of i.i.d random varaibles $X_1, X_2, ...$ with finite mean $\mu$ and finite variance. I also have another sequence of i.i.d random varaibles $Y_1, Y_2, ...$ with the same finite mean ...
2
votes
0answers
130 views

Coverage probability from fiducial/confidence distribution

I am trying to realize how to compute confidence intervals from a fiducial distribution/confidence distribution with possibly more than one parameter. But for now I would just like to understand if I ...
1
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0answers
82 views

Probability distribution of three random variables

The following formula is a formula I got from a paper that deals with wireless networks specifically when calculating coverage probabilities, it is powerful because one can use it for general ...
1
vote
1answer
487 views

Calculating the mean excess loss

Suppose $X$ has the following pdf: $$ f_x(x)=0.01 \qquad for\space 0\le x<100$$ Find the pdf of $X_p$ (the excess-loss variable) and calculate the mean excess loss for $d=10$. \begin{align} P(X_p&...
1
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0answers
64 views

error on truncated rms

I am computing the RMS of a sample to estimate the standar error $\sigma$ of the underlying distribution (for simplicity let say a normal distribution $N[\mu$, $\sigma$]). $ \text{RMS} = \sum_{i=1}^N ...
4
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0answers
130 views

Why (mathematically) is the parametric bootstrap usually better than the empirical one?

As I know from experience, the parametric bootstrap performs better in terms of coverage probability for confidence intervals then the empirical bootstrap. Of course, this makes sense because you put ...
0
votes
1answer
182 views

Inconsistency between RMSE and 95% CI Coverage

I am running simulations to compare different weighting methods to estimate the mean of y (with missing values). I use bias, RMSE and 95% CI Coverage as my performance metrics. However, looking at ...
1
vote
1answer
419 views

Confidence Interval Coverage-error and Type I error

Could somebody explain to me the relationship between coverage error and type one errors in multiple comparisons testing, if there is one in fact? Does a coverage error occur when the true value of ...
2
votes
1answer
296 views

Why are intervals for means narrower than intervals for individual observations?

I am looking at problem 5.01 relating to Galton's data on adult heights of fathers and sons, from Chapter 5 of Statistical Modelling: A Fresh Approach link to this book: http://www.mosaic-web.org/go/...
9
votes
3answers
4k views

Is calculating “actual coverage probability” the same thing as calculating a “credible interval”?

I was reading an entry level statistics textbook. In the chapter on maximum likelihood estimation of the success proportion in data with binomial distribution, it gave a formula for calculating a ...
2
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0answers
1k views

What exactly is the actual coverage probability? [duplicate]

I am confused about the difference between the nominal and the actual coverage probability. Say we are trying to estimate the fraction of the current population of the US that has been diagnosed with ...