Questions tagged [covid-19]

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COVID-19 Shock: Time Series not Stationary Anymore

I am trying to forecast the private consumption for 2020 of a small region based on the national time series of the same variable. With some adjustments I managed to get both the series stationary by ...
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1answer
29 views

Fitting SIR model for COVID-19 Data UK

I want to fit a COVID-19 SIR model for UK to evaluate the lockdown measures (here: the first lockdown). My code is based on https://kingaa.github.io/clim-dis/parest/parest.html#overdispersion-a-...
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1answer
19 views

Estimate recovered/infectious for SIR model

I like to fit a SIR model to COVID-19 data of UK. If i understood it correctly i need the numbers of I (infected) people (and not the reported case daily case data) which i would calculate as followed:...
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1answer
35 views

How statistically relevant are COVID information about the number of infections per day?

I am French and the restrictions in place in my country are driven by several indicators, including "the total number of infections per day". For reference, it is currently given as about ...
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1answer
49 views

How to group countries with similar age distributions?

How can I group the world's 200-odd countries into (say) ten groups, with each group's countries having 'similar' age distributions? I want to compare COVID-19 fatality rates across countries. But the ...
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1answer
143 views

Analyzing Pfizer Vaccine Efficacy: Testing a Claim about 2 Proportions

I teach Introduction to Statistics and would like to show my students how to analyze the Pfizer Phase 3 Vaccine results. Testing a claim about 2 proportions is straightforward with the Pfizer data: ...
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2answers
133 views

Baysian probability of false positive COVID-19 test

I am wondering what the probability of a false positive COVID-19 test would be in my city. I'm attempting to use Bayes Theorem to calculate this, however I'm getting very different results based on ...
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3answers
554 views

Why is $R_t$ (or $R_0$) and not doubling rate or time the go-to metric for measuring Covid-19 expansion?

In my head, the natural way to measure the expansion speed of an epidemic across populations of different sizes is simply fitting an exponential over recent infection numbers (with any strategy), ...
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12 views

X or Not X Happened, Witnessed by n Knights and Knaves, Who Are Questioned In Order to Determine What Happened

I'm a teacher in a school and at the end of each lesson, the students, led by the teacher, are supposed to clean the desks with anti-viral spray. However, across the school, I think this doesn't ...
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1answer
36 views

Efficiency / Accuracy of Medical Tests for unknown diseases

Context : A few days ago, a few friends and I were trying to conduct a little study on the possible distribution of number of asymptomatic people infected by COVID-19 with the help of a slightly ...
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29 views

No apparent relation between two time series data

I have two time series data and I want to understand relationship between them for my a data science project that I am currently working on. The time series plots are given below : The plot of 1-...
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2answers
213 views

If number of infected people grow exponentially, is R0(basic reproduction number) the coefficient in exponential function?

I am trying to learn basic reproduction number and have a very basic question. In a given time window, If number of infected people grows exponentially, for example $N_{d+1}=1.15N_{d}$ Can we say ...
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2answers
34 views

Effectiveness test of intervention on number of cases

Apologies if I'm phrasing this incorrectly, I want to model the effectiveness of an intervention measure on the number of patients diagnosed with a virus (COVID-19). A hypothesis test of sorts comes ...
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47 views

Explain the source of overfitting in choosing an additional parameter

I was going through this reddit post. It describes the 'timelapse and prediction of Wuhan coronavirus infections in Mainland China'. The guy chose to use $y=a+b*(exp(c*x)-1)$ to describe the ...