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Questions tagged [crostons-method]

Pertaining to Croston's method for forecasting intermittent demands.

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Croston's Method (forecast)

I ran Croston's Method on this data(Sales) with h=3 ...
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1answer
81 views

Croston forecasting initialization

I have been working with the Croston method but I have many doubts and I do not know if you can help me! The method says that if demand $x_t$ at period $t$ is $x_t= 0$ then $\hat{z}(t) = \hat{z}(t-1)$ ...
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290 views

Combining Intermittent Demand and ARIMA

I have a time series dataset, where a customer may purchase fuel one week and not purchase again for 2-3 weeks. I need to forecast when a customer is likely to purchase and how much they will spend. ...
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2answers
1k views

Forecasting Intermittent Demand with zeroes in times series

I am trying to forecast intermittent demand (slow movers and extreme slow movers). Here's the type of data I am working with weekly data so I cannot really group it has zeroes in time series not ...
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1answer
1k views

Forecasting daily time series sales revenue with many zero entries

I have been trying to forecast the sales revenue of different product groups (the displayed sales revenue is aggregated over all products for each day e.g. smartphones with different prices as one ...
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336 views

Can Croston's method handle a series that has a large number of zeros at the end?

I am trying to implement Croston's method in Python. The way I understand it, the first step is to take a series of the form: ...
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153 views

A forecast distribution implementation for Croston's model?

I read the paper by Shenstone and Hyndman on the distributional forecast underlying Croston's model. I looked into the forecast R package and the tsintermittent R package. Neither seem to have the ...
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2answers
4k views

Forecasting daily time series with many zeros

I need to forecast a univariate time-series of sales data with the following characterica. It is a daily time-series Around 70-80 % of the date nothing is sold ($x_t = 0$) At the 20-30 % remaining ...
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3answers
2k views

How to forecast demand with time series and/or other models?

I need to forecast data which has many periods of zero demand, also there is no seasonality or trend in the data. I tried ARIMA, but it converges to the mean. I also applied some predictors, but ...
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1answer
489 views

Croston forecasting h-step ahead forecast with last n values being zero

I found some literature that explained the Croston's method I'm trying to implement for forecasting. The source explains the method like the picture below. The way I understand this, you could see ...
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0answers
122 views

“First time bucket” meaning Croston's method initial values

I'm not sure if this belongs in the 'English' stackexchange or this one, but I thought I'd try it here. I found this about the Croston's method: The system checks the first time bucket of the ...
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1answer
334 views

How could i use r to add data to a table? [closed]

I am looking for an approach. We have a historical table with the consumption per week of a list of items (19.000 item). We want to predict the consumption for the next n weeks. We are thinking on ...
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1answer
12k views

Explain the croston method of R

I am using crost() function of R for analyzing and forecasting intermittent demand/slow moving items time series. I am having difficulty in understanding the output....
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2k views

How to compare forecasting methods?

I have several intermittent data. Based on those data, I would like to compare several forecasting methods (Exponential Smoothing, Moving Average, Croston, and Syntetos-Boylan), and decide whether ...
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2answers
305 views

Forecasting irregular pattern and volume

I have tried a number of different models to forecast the time series shown below, but so far I haven't found any models that satisfy me. I am looking for ideas for a suitable model. The objective ...
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2answers
2k views

Quicker way to optimize alpha parameter in croston model using R

I have the following R code: ...
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1answer
2k views

How to detect intermittent time series?

I need to automatically identify if a time series is intermittent or not. Depending on the result I'll use one or another method for forecasting it. Is there any test to detect intermittent time ...
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7k views

Analysis of time series with many zero values

This problem is actually about fire detection, but it is strongly analogous to some radioactive decay detection problems. The phenomena being observed is both sporadic and highly variable; thus, a ...