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# Questions tagged [crostons-method]

Pertaining to Croston's method for forecasting intermittent demands.

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### Croston's Method (forecast)

I ran Croston's Method on this data(Sales) with h=3 ...
81 views

### Croston forecasting initialization

I have been working with the Croston method but I have many doubts and I do not know if you can help me! The method says that if demand $x_t$ at period $t$ is $x_t= 0$ then $\hat{z}(t) = \hat{z}(t-1)$ ...
290 views

### Combining Intermittent Demand and ARIMA

I have a time series dataset, where a customer may purchase fuel one week and not purchase again for 2-3 weeks. I need to forecast when a customer is likely to purchase and how much they will spend. ...
1k views

### Forecasting Intermittent Demand with zeroes in times series

I am trying to forecast intermittent demand (slow movers and extreme slow movers). Here's the type of data I am working with weekly data so I cannot really group it has zeroes in time series not ...
1k views

### Forecasting daily time series sales revenue with many zero entries

I have been trying to forecast the sales revenue of different product groups (the displayed sales revenue is aggregated over all products for each day e.g. smartphones with different prices as one ...
336 views

### Can Croston's method handle a series that has a large number of zeros at the end?

I am trying to implement Croston's method in Python. The way I understand it, the first step is to take a series of the form: ...
75 views

### With non-contractual customers, what method should I apply to calculate their demand for a specific time period viz. month, quarter

I have customer data for 18 months in the format as follows: ...
153 views

### A forecast distribution implementation for Croston's model?

I read the paper by Shenstone and Hyndman on the distributional forecast underlying Croston's model. I looked into the forecast R package and the tsintermittent R package. Neither seem to have the ...
4k views

### Forecasting daily time series with many zeros

I need to forecast a univariate time-series of sales data with the following characterica. It is a daily time-series Around 70-80 % of the date nothing is sold ($x_t = 0$) At the 20-30 % remaining ...
2k views

### How to forecast demand with time series and/or other models?

I need to forecast data which has many periods of zero demand, also there is no seasonality or trend in the data. I tried ARIMA, but it converges to the mean. I also applied some predictors, but ...
489 views

### Croston forecasting h-step ahead forecast with last n values being zero

I found some literature that explained the Croston's method I'm trying to implement for forecasting. The source explains the method like the picture below. The way I understand this, you could see ...
122 views

### “First time bucket” meaning Croston's method initial values

I'm not sure if this belongs in the 'English' stackexchange or this one, but I thought I'd try it here. I found this about the Croston's method: The system checks the first time bucket of the ...
334 views

### How could i use r to add data to a table? [closed]

I am looking for an approach. We have a historical table with the consumption per week of a list of items (19.000 item). We want to predict the consumption for the next n weeks. We are thinking on ...
12k views

### Explain the croston method of R

I am using crost() function of R for analyzing and forecasting intermittent demand/slow moving items time series. I am having difficulty in understanding the output....
2k views

### How to compare forecasting methods?

I have several intermittent data. Based on those data, I would like to compare several forecasting methods (Exponential Smoothing, Moving Average, Croston, and Syntetos-Boylan), and decide whether ...
305 views

### Forecasting irregular pattern and volume

I have tried a number of different models to forecast the time series shown below, but so far I haven't found any models that satisfy me. I am looking for ideas for a suitable model. The objective ...
2k views

### Quicker way to optimize alpha parameter in croston model using R

I have the following R code: ...