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Questions tagged [customer-lifetime-value]

Customer Lifetime Value (LTV) is the projected, discounted revenue that a customer will generate during their lifetime. LTV is a key business metric for many types of businesses.

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How much data is considered “sparse” for fitting a mixed (Beta Geometric) distribution with 4 shape parameters?

I'm using CamDavidsonPhillips Customer Lifetime Value library to calculate CLV, and it uses a distribution based on Peter Fader's work on the subject that fits a Gamma distribution to model customer ...
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Pareto/NBD and New/Existing Customers

I am looking at implementing a Pareto/NBD model to forecast customer lifetime value in a non-contractual business setting. One thing I haven't got my head around yet is whether such a model is equally ...
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Calculate LTV values between various groups

I have just picked up some basics when it comes to this. I'm currently trying to figure out how to calculate LTV (life time values) for my E-COM customers over time to see confidence level to see if A ...
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Is there a reference for models used to solve specific business needs?

I've gone through the math and algorithms of various learning techniques such as regression, random forests, svm, etc. The next step is to learn models specific to industries, such as modeling churn ...
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Buy till you die (BTYD) modeling with negative “sales”

Trying to figure out if it possible to predict customer value over X months using Buy till you die modeling, or any other approach, where sales can be negative? Only example I could think of where ...
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Estimating variance of MLE estimate of Beta-Geometric/NBD without MCMC

I'm using Fader's BG/NBD model for customer LTV calculations. The log likelihood is the following: $$ \sum_{i=1}^{N} \ln L(r, \alpha, a, b|X_i=x_i, t_{x_i}, T_i) = \frac{B(a, b + x)}{B(a, b)}\frac{\...
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How to fit newer cohorts using Pareto/NBD or Beta/Geo for CLTV

I am trying to fit the popular Pareto/NBD or Beta/Geometric models for non-contractual, continuous customer data. On top of that I then fit the Gamma/Gamma model for monetary value (using the very ...