# Questions tagged [discrete-time]

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### What is the distribution of completed parts by a given machine after t minutes in SimPy's Machine Shop example?

Question You can read the Machine Shop example in the SimPy documentation, however I have tried to put it into its mathematical description below so that reading Python is not necessary. Suppose a ...
28 views

### Combination of a discrete and a continuous Markov Chain in a MCMC

Recently, I've been questioning myself on the possibility of combining a discrete update and a continuous update on a single MCMC. Stephens (2000) in Algorithm 3.2 runs the process for a fixed amount ...
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### Discrete-time survival model output doesn't match Cox proportional-hazards model - problem with input of data?

I'm trying to construct a discrete-time survival model to analyse some mating data. I've used a Cox proportional hazards model previously but got some input that the discrete-time survival model would ...
1 vote
68 views

### Average time in which a product random variable becomes zero

Im looking for the optimal time in which a process should be cancelled before it results on financial losses. Say M_n=X_n*Y_n-c(n) for for n =1 to 12 which is the number of hours the process gets ...
1 vote
245 views

### Discrete time survival analysis or Cox regression?

In an RCT, I want to find out whether the treatment (treatment vs control) has an effect on the uptake of aftercare (yes/no + time). I have five measurement points, which are not equidistant (i.e., ...
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### What is the probability that price reaches expected target within a time interval?

The Forecasting Model I have developed a proprietary forecasting model (call it AMA) that forecasts an expected range in price movement of a particular security. An example of the way it works is by ... 59 views

### Basic Kaplan-Meier survival analysis input data interpretation with discrete time periods

I am trying to apply Kaplan-Meier survival analysis from the Reliability package in Python to a problem with discrete time periods, and I'm having some trouble understanding which periods to list ...
465 views

### Survival analysis: difference between GLM clog-log family binomial vs GLM clog-log family Poisson

I'm trying to find ways to do survival analysis on data with asynchronous interval-censored outcomes and time-varying covariates. I know that GLM binomial with a complementary log-log link function ...
1 vote
127 views

### Training discrete time hazard model with xgboost on right censored loan data

I am currently developing a loan default risk model using a discrete time hazard approach with xgboost. The goal is to generate a series of predicted monthly default probabilities using a new ...
170 views

### Censoring in a discrete-time hazard model of time-to-drop-out of a clinical trial

I am conducting a discrete-time hazard model where the outcome being analysed is time to drop out of treatment during a 12-week clinical trial examining the effect of an agonist drug on days of ...
861 views

### Is is acceptable to use cox proportional hazard regression when time-to-event is a discrete, numeric variable?

I recently submitted a paper where I performed a cox proportional hazards regression model modelling the effect of group allocation in a randomised controlled trial on treatment retention. The event ...
1 vote
54 views

### When are continuous-time models important?

In Econometrics, majority of the models are in discrete-time setting, whereas when you move on to quantitative finance, continuous-time models are most prevalent. I get the theory and idea behind ...
1 vote
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### Determine order of events happening in discrete timespace

At $t=0$ I have a certain (active) population, lets say 1,000 customers. In each time step I expect a certain amount I have a probability of death of 1% and a prepayment rate of 5%. At the end of each ...
22 views

### Probability $X_n=k$ for a Markov Chain over the integers

Let $\{X_n\}$ be a Markov chain with state space $\mathcal{S}=\mathbb{Z}$, and $X_0=0,$ and $p_{0,1}=p_{0,-1}=1/2,$ and $p_{i,i+1}=1$ for all $i \ge 1,$ and $p_{i,i-1}=1$ for all $i\le -1.$ The ...
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### Variable data measured discretely with poor resolution

Is there an appropriate method for estimating variation when variable data is measured discretely where the resolution is poor. Here's an example: You are looking at how long it takes for a solid to ...
154 views

### Negative Binomial vs. Discrete Survival

I am trying to model a discrete duration variable (number of weeks) and I am not sure which model to use. Many would argue that durations are modeled using survival models. However, in J. Hilbes ...
38 views

### Any methods for clustering short time series data

I have around 200 different sets of time series data with a semi-annual periodicity. The length of each series varies from 1 to 6 years. I essentially want to build unsupervised clusters by grouping ...
325 views

### Proving/showing that the Markov property holds in discrete time Markov chain example

I am currently studying the textbook Introduction to Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Systems, Second Edition, by V. G. Kulkarni. In a section on discrete-time Markov chains, the author presents ...
1 vote
2k views

### Rows and columns of the one-step transition probability matrix

I am currently studying the textbook Introduction to Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Systems, Second Edition, by V. G. Kulkarni. In a section on discrete-time Markov chains, the author introduces ...
1 vote
2k views

### Regression analysis with small data set

We've performed a regression analysis with 14 data points (Y's) that originate from 9 X's (plant batches were split up). I'm well aware that this is a small data set and there are caveats. However, ...
90 views

### Statistical modeling multidimensional discrete system

I have a system which its state is described by a vector $v=(a, b, c)$, where $a$, $b$ and $c$ can take any value between $0$ and $100$ and where $a+b+c <= 100$. I have observations of the state ...
59 views

### Detecting Significant Changes in Time Series

I’m hoping someone might be able to point me in the right direction for this problem. I’ve anonymised the problem by describing it in terms of supermarket purchase data rather than the real context so ...
1 vote
330 views

### Posterior distribution from piecewise likelihood

Consider a hierarchical Bayesian model for analysing data from an inhomogeneous Poisson process that we observe in discrete time. Let $Y_i, i = 1,...,n$, be the number of events occurring in the time ...
1 vote
83 views

### Modeling Time in the Discrete Time Analysis using Left-truncated Data

I am doing multiple-spell, discrete-time analysis to examine factors shaping time to exiting a renter spell, with time-varying covariates at monthly interval. My data has left-truncated spells, ...
689 views

### INAR(1) simulation in R [closed]

How do we simulate values of $Y_t$ for a maximum value of $t=60$ when we have an INAR(1) process as follows: $Y_t=ρ^*Y_{(t-1)}+R_t$ where $t$ takes values from 1 to 60, $ρ=0.3,0.8$, $ρ^*$ is ...
379 views

### Simulating a (discretized) Cox process via binomial sampling

Let X be a Cox process (doubly-stochastic Poisson process) driven by a Poisson process with fixed intensity(rate) $\lambda=50$ , and choose some small time interval $dt=0.01$ . Is the proper way to ...
159 views

### How to recognize an ARMA process?

By looking at the autocovariance, how could you recognise what discrete model (MA(q), AR(p), or ARMA(p,q)) is more appropriate to describe your data?
595 views

### Simulation -Discrete Time Hazard model

How we can simulate the survival times for fitting discrete time hazard model?
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### How to forecast integer time series in R?

For a while now I used to forecast integer/count time series as I would do for any other continuous time series, meaning : I use models like ARIMA, ETS, THETA, TBATS ... And then I simply round the ...
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### best statistical approach to study the time evolution of clustering in a data set

I am using a stochastic method for the clustering of a data set. The number of clusters that this approach returns, can differ in each iteration. On the other hand, I would like to study the evolution ...
121 views

### Is average stopping time a continuous function of Bernoulli parameter?

Consider an infinite sequence $X = (X_i)_{i \in \mathbb N}$ of i.i.d Bernoulli random variables with (unknown) parameter $p \in (0,1)$, and let $N$ be a stopping time on $X$. Is it always the case ...
30 views

### Gaussian random variable over multiple periods

Let's assume that : $$X_0=X_0$$ $$X_1=(1+R_1)*X_0$$ $$...$$ $$X_N=(1+R_N)*X_{N-1}$$ where $R_i \sim \mathcal{N}(0,u^2)$. I am trying to compute the probability $P(X_N < a)$. How accurate is it to ...
2k views

### Linear mixed model: Time as continuous or discrete variable?

I am analysing a dataset from a randomised controlled trial (2 treatment groups) with measurements at 3 time points (weeks 0, 1 and 8). I am struggling with whether to analyse this with the three time ...
185 views

### Probability distribution for day of the year [closed]

"Day of the year" is an integer from 1 to 365, indicating the day within the year. I'd like to model the day of the year that a particular event occurs. The event must occur between day 100 and day ...
3k views

### discrete time survival analysis

I would greatly appreciate if you could let me know how to do discrete time survival analysis with time varying covariates. Some part of my data set is as follows: ...
1 vote
1k views

### parametric survival regression and discrete time survival regression

I would greatly appreciate if you could let me know how to choose among different parametric distributions including gama, Weibull, lognormal, loglogistic and etc for panel (time series cross ...
30 views

### Looking for suitable method to update predictions

consider an e-commerce website which daily updates their transaction data. I take interest in predicting the revenue an account generates over a certain time range, say until the fifth year after the ...
185 views

### Difference between count time and discrete time survival analysis

Is there a practical or theoretical difference between count time survival analysis (e.g. ctset/cttost in Stata), where counts ...
502 views

### Interpreting a (integer valued) discrete predictor as a continuous variable?

I am currently working on a multiple linear regression in order to evaluate the impact of some variables on a contract's length, which can only take integer values (years). As I am only interested in ...
421 views

### Describe AR process with additive white noise using ARMA process

Disclaimer: This is a homework problem This is a problem from "Adaptive Filter Theory" by Haykin. Problem 2.10 (2nd edition). Problem A discrete-time stochastic process $\{x(n)\}$ that is real-...
1 vote