Questions tagged [disease]

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14 views

Estimating future graph size given partial graph size

(This question compares a branching-fiction novel to a disease, bear with me.) This is for fun, my friends and I are writing a branching-fiction novel: A black node is a concluding chapter ("The ...
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1answer
49 views

How to estimate the change of rate of COVID-19 infections when accounting for vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility of mutated strains?

The world has reasonably accurate numbers of the transmissibility of the strains of COVID-19 that have ravaged humankind. Now, two changes are afoot: Some wealthy regions have access to limited ...
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Estimating True COVID-19 infection rate from Positivity Rate?

Like many, I've been watching and tinkering with COVID-19 statistics for the past 8+ months. One thought I keep coming back to is that there must be some smart Bayesian approach to blending (a) known ...
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23 views

SIR Estimation Finding Cause of Error While Estimating Parameters With Python

Hello I had a question on stackoverflow and one user redirected me to here as this question is more related with statistics. I'm trying to fit SIR Epidemics Spread Model to the current new case data ...
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13 views

How to know the total number of infected from the time-series of infected people?

From a SIR model, I have the time-series that provides the people infected at each instant t, where $t∈[0,T]$. How can I find out the total number of people who have been infected during the entire ...
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19 views

Expected number of infections given one root infection

So I'm trying to find a way to calculate expected social cost (from COVID-19 deaths) if I take a trip. (I've made a much more detailed post here.) I've gotten parts of a calculation that seem ...
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47 views

Appropriate approach for identifying outliers in health board performances with COVID-19 mortality rates

I am relatively new to statistics but am very keen to learn the best approaches with working examples as I prefer to learn this way. We are clearly living in an unprecedented time with COVID-19 and I ...
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1answer
242 views

Understanding beta/tau in the SIR model of Infectious disease for COVID modeling

Inspired by the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen and COVID-19, I am writing an agent-based simulation to allow the modeling of heterogeneous populations (e.g., some folks abide by quarantine, some resist, or some ...
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2answers
307 views

How could one (tentatively) estimate the actual number of COVID-19 infections in an area, using hard data like age-adjusted death rate?

A big problem with the current COVID-19 epidemic is the difficulty of getting tested (due to mild symptoms and lack of testing kits). This makes it impossible for patients with little or no symptoms ...
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1answer
26 views

Stochastic epidemic models with branching process

I am looking for an academic survey article that uses branching process in stochastic epidemic models. There are journal articles in epidemic and bio statistics that deal with specific transmittable ...
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1answer
71 views

Analyzing diseased-based data “backwards”?

In my line of work, we have clinical samples from various stages of a pathology. We might measure levels of proteins, RNAs, etc.--we'll call them all "markers". Invariably, the presumption ...
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32 views

Taylor Series Power Function in R

I'm trying to recreate a compartmental model from Yu et al (2017). In this model there is a expanded taylor series power function that is used that I am not understanding how to code. where W(t) = 0, ...
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21 views

Sensitivity and specificity on cases rather than individual days

I have data collected from sensors to detect disease in several individuals. Each individual has a known disease status (labelled Actual in the table below) for ...
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2answers
41 views

How to tell a method is improving the detection of a disease?

We have two methods, A and B, for detecting a disease. Out of a 1000 samples with unknown prevalence, A detects 100 samples (10%). On the remaining 900 negatives, we apply the additional method B, and ...
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1answer
41 views

Bayesian formulation of disease test: What likelihood function to use? [closed]

Disease Test: In this classic example of Bayes' theorem for discrete events, one would like to determine the posterior probability of the patient having the disease, given that they test positive, ...
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2answers
87 views

Using patient characteristics to predict disease and confront with per hospital real cases

We have a large, nationwide prevalence study about the prevalence of healthcare-associated infections (HAI). We need to see if hospitals have more or less HAI than expected by their patients' ...
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2answers
102 views

Is it reasonable to use simultaneously the disease risk score and the propensity score?

I wonder whether the disease risk score and the propensity score can be simultaneously used and whether they have been ever been used together in the past.
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1answer
113 views

predictive model that includes previous predictions and models time dependence

I'm trying to predict counts of dengue fever from climate and environmental data. I'm predicting total weekly counts of dengue and the data is time-series in one week intervals over the past 20 years. ...
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0answers
583 views

Regression analysis including variables changing over time

In glaucoma management, we study the trend of a global index variable representing the entire visual field of a glaucoma patient. This concern the Mean Defect of visual sentitivity (=MD), expressed in ...
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25 views

Study the effect of 2 drugs on a symptom caused by 2 diseases

A symptom (for e.g. Headache) can be caused by 2 different diseases (X and Y). Drug “A” acts on both diseases (X and Y). Drug B acts on only second (Y) disease. Disease “X” patients will be treated ...
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213 views

PCA (with phi/tetrachoric correlation matrix) or LTM to study the correlation of (true) dichotomous variables?

I am doing a study were I have to initially do an exploratory analysis by grouping diseases that coexist in my study population. For that I have x diseases/variables that are (true) dichotomous (...
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1answer
51 views

Compare disease code between two years

Data: ...
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73 views

Determining Sample Size to Show Increase in Disease Prevalence

A prof and I are trying to figure out how many samples a study would need to show a certain % increase in disease prevalence, but I'm not sure I'm doing this correctly. Basically we want to know how ...
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1answer
104 views

Power calculation for disease modeling in iPS cells

I apologize in advance if the question is rather simple, but I have been having a difficult time figuring it out. I am an experimental scientist interested in modeling human disease with induced ...
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115 views

Confusion related to Kulldorff's scan statistics

I was reading this paper related to Bayesian spatial scan statistics where I came across the Kulldorff's scan statistics. I have attached the screenshot of the paper. My objective is to find a ...
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1answer
654 views

Disease forecasting - counts or rates?

I'm developing a forecasting model for an infectious disease for a hospital and wanting to understand if I should use disease counts or rates (based on population or total clinic visits). What are the ...
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2answers
227 views

Associating a probability to disease propagation in regions of a map

I am trying to model disease propagation. I am considering a map separated into regions. One region is infected. There is data over time, with the number of people travelling into and out of the ...
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3answers
2k views

How do I calculate and compare incidence of infection between age-groups

We work on cervical cancer detection and we started accumulating data in 2006 by performing HPV testing on all our samples. We have accumulated a data set with almost 400,000 women. Data enters the ...
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1answer
149 views

What approach could be used for modelling virus infections?

I'm a physics graduate who ended up doing infosec so most of the statistics I ever learned is useful for thermodynamics. I'm currently trying to think of a model for working out how many of a ...