Questions tagged [disease]

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Probability that seems to exceed 1

Suppose we have the following information based on independent events: The probability of contracting Alpha variant is .4 The Delta variant is 50% more contagious than Alpha The Omicron BA1 variant ...
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0 answers
13 views

Best way to examine slopes of a patient group with varying timelines?

I'd like some advice on how to best to study a disease cohort using slope data. I am running regression analyses using slope data (on enzyme activity over time) vs genotypes. The issue is that ...
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0 votes
1 answer
54 views

What is the appropriate distribution of Ordinal Data?

I have an ordinal random variable {0,1,2,3}. The variable should describe disease severity. What kind of probability distribution is the best fit to model this variable? The categorical distribution ...
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0 votes
1 answer
40 views

Bayes theorem for a rare disease [duplicate]

I learned about Bayes' theorem recently and hoped to apply it to the following problem: 1% of a country's population has a rare disease. A resident takes a disease test with a true positive rate of ...
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0 answers
5 views

How to use RSS for an infectious disease model?

I am trying to calibrate the values of beta (transmission rate) and gamma (per-capita rate of cure) to get prevalence (230 per 100,000) and annual incidence (190 per 100,000) for a transmission ...
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1 vote
0 answers
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Estimating future graph size given partial graph size

(This question compares a branching-fiction novel to a disease, bear with me.) This is for fun, my friends and I are writing a branching-fiction novel: A black node is a concluding chapter ("The ...
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1 vote
1 answer
72 views

How to estimate the change of rate of COVID-19 infections when accounting for vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility of mutated strains?

The world has reasonably accurate numbers of the transmissibility of the strains of COVID-19 that have ravaged humankind. Now, two changes are afoot: Some wealthy regions have access to limited ...
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2 votes
0 answers
54 views

Estimating True COVID-19 infection rate from Positivity Rate?

Like many, I've been watching and tinkering with COVID-19 statistics for the past 8+ months. One thought I keep coming back to is that there must be some smart Bayesian approach to blending (a) known ...
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3 votes
0 answers
22 views

Expected number of infections given one root infection

So I'm trying to find a way to calculate expected social cost (from COVID-19 deaths) if I take a trip. (I've made a much more detailed post here.) I've gotten parts of a calculation that seem ...
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3 votes
0 answers
50 views

Appropriate approach for identifying outliers in health board performances with COVID-19 mortality rates

I am relatively new to statistics but am very keen to learn the best approaches with working examples as I prefer to learn this way. We are clearly living in an unprecedented time with COVID-19 and I ...
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  • 81
3 votes
1 answer
344 views

Understanding beta/tau in the SIR model of Infectious disease for COVID modeling

Inspired by the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen and COVID-19, I am writing an agent-based simulation to allow the modeling of heterogeneous populations (e.g., some folks abide by quarantine, some resist, or some ...
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7 votes
2 answers
329 views

How could one (tentatively) estimate the actual number of COVID-19 infections in an area, using hard data like age-adjusted death rate?

A big problem with the current COVID-19 epidemic is the difficulty of getting tested (due to mild symptoms and lack of testing kits). This makes it impossible for patients with little or no symptoms ...
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1 vote
1 answer
36 views

Stochastic epidemic models with branching process

I am looking for an academic survey article that uses branching process in stochastic epidemic models. There are journal articles in epidemic and bio statistics that deal with specific transmittable ...
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2 votes
1 answer
73 views

Analyzing diseased-based data "backwards"?

In my line of work, we have clinical samples from various stages of a pathology. We might measure levels of proteins, RNAs, etc.--we'll call them all "markers". Invariably, the presumption ...
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1 vote
0 answers
41 views

Taylor Series Power Function in R

I'm trying to recreate a compartmental model from Yu et al (2017). In this model there is a expanded taylor series power function that is used that I am not understanding how to code. where W(t) = 0, ...
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  • 111
1 vote
0 answers
22 views

Sensitivity and specificity on cases rather than individual days

I have data collected from sensors to detect disease in several individuals. Each individual has a known disease status (labelled Actual in the table below) for ...
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3 votes
2 answers
43 views

How to tell a method is improving the detection of a disease?

We have two methods, A and B, for detecting a disease. Out of a 1000 samples with unknown prevalence, A detects 100 samples (10%). On the remaining 900 negatives, we apply the additional method B, and ...
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1 vote
1 answer
45 views

Bayesian formulation of disease test: What likelihood function to use? [closed]

Disease Test: In this classic example of Bayes' theorem for discrete events, one would like to determine the posterior probability of the patient having the disease, given that they test positive, ...
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  • 125
3 votes
2 answers
92 views

Using patient characteristics to predict disease and confront with per hospital real cases

We have a large, nationwide prevalence study about the prevalence of healthcare-associated infections (HAI). We need to see if hospitals have more or less HAI than expected by their patients' ...
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  • 2,313
1 vote
2 answers
115 views

Is it reasonable to use simultaneously the disease risk score and the propensity score?

I wonder whether the disease risk score and the propensity score can be simultaneously used and whether they have been ever been used together in the past.
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0 votes
1 answer
117 views

predictive model that includes previous predictions and models time dependence

I'm trying to predict counts of dengue fever from climate and environmental data. I'm predicting total weekly counts of dengue and the data is time-series in one week intervals over the past 20 years. ...
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2 votes
0 answers
616 views

Regression analysis including variables changing over time

In glaucoma management, we study the trend of a global index variable representing the entire visual field of a glaucoma patient. This concern the Mean Defect of visual sentitivity (=MD), expressed in ...
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1 vote
0 answers
25 views

Study the effect of 2 drugs on a symptom caused by 2 diseases

A symptom (for e.g. Headache) can be caused by 2 different diseases (X and Y). Drug “A” acts on both diseases (X and Y). Drug B acts on only second (Y) disease. Disease “X” patients will be treated ...
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2 votes
0 answers
237 views

PCA (with phi/tetrachoric correlation matrix) or LTM to study the correlation of (true) dichotomous variables?

I am doing a study were I have to initially do an exploratory analysis by grouping diseases that coexist in my study population. For that I have x diseases/variables that are (true) dichotomous (...
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0 votes
1 answer
52 views

Compare disease code between two years

Data: ...
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0 votes
0 answers
73 views

Determining Sample Size to Show Increase in Disease Prevalence

A prof and I are trying to figure out how many samples a study would need to show a certain % increase in disease prevalence, but I'm not sure I'm doing this correctly. Basically we want to know how ...
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0 votes
1 answer
106 views

Power calculation for disease modeling in iPS cells

I apologize in advance if the question is rather simple, but I have been having a difficult time figuring it out. I am an experimental scientist interested in modeling human disease with induced ...
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2 votes
0 answers
123 views

Confusion related to Kulldorff's scan statistics

I was reading this paper related to Bayesian spatial scan statistics where I came across the Kulldorff's scan statistics. I have attached the screenshot of the paper. My objective is to find a ...
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  • 6,129
7 votes
1 answer
743 views

Disease forecasting - counts or rates?

I'm developing a forecasting model for an infectious disease for a hospital and wanting to understand if I should use disease counts or rates (based on population or total clinic visits). What are the ...
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  • 71
7 votes
2 answers
229 views

Associating a probability to disease propagation in regions of a map

I am trying to model disease propagation. I am considering a map separated into regions. One region is infected. There is data over time, with the number of people travelling into and out of the ...
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  • 1,455
5 votes
3 answers
2k views

How do I calculate and compare incidence of infection between age-groups

We work on cervical cancer detection and we started accumulating data in 2006 by performing HPV testing on all our samples. We have accumulated a data set with almost 400,000 women. Data enters the ...
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5 votes
1 answer
153 views

What approach could be used for modelling virus infections?

I'm a physics graduate who ended up doing infosec so most of the statistics I ever learned is useful for thermodynamics. I'm currently trying to think of a model for working out how many of a ...
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