Questions tagged [disease]

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SIR Estimation Finding Cause of Error While Estimating Parameters With Python

Hello I had a question on stackoverflow and one user redirected me to here as this question is more related with statistics. I'm trying to fit SIR Epidemics Spread Model to the current new case data ...
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How to know the total number of infected from the time-series of infected people?

From a SIR model, I have the time-series that provides the people infected at each instant t, where $t∈[0,T]$. How can I find out the total number of people who have been infected during the entire ...
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Expected number of infections given one root infection

So I'm trying to find a way to calculate expected social cost (from COVID-19 deaths) if I take a trip. (I've made a much more detailed post here.) I've gotten parts of a calculation that seem ...
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Appropriate approach for identifying outliers in health board performances with COVID-19 mortality rates

I am relatively new to statistics but am very keen to learn the best approaches with working examples as I prefer to learn this way. We are clearly living in an unprecedented time with COVID-19 and I ...
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Understanding beta/tau in the SIR model of Infectious disease for COVID modeling

Inspired by the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen and COVID-19, I am writing an agent-based simulation to allow the modeling of heterogeneous populations (e.g., some folks abide by quarantine, some resist, or some ...
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Onset, detection, mortality and recovery: how to detect a mismatch

Question: Given the count (not rate) of confirmed (not total) infection, mortality, and recovered, as a function of wall-clock time, can we estimate start time for infection in the closed community? ...
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272 views

How could one (tentatively) estimate the actual number of COVID-19 infections in an area, using hard data like age-adjusted death rate?

A big problem with the current COVID-19 epidemic is the difficulty of getting tested (due to mild symptoms and lack of testing kits). This makes it impossible for patients with little or no symptoms ...
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19 views

Stochastic epidemic models with branching process

I am looking for an academic survey article that uses branching process in stochastic epidemic models. There are journal articles in epidemic and bio statistics that deal with specific transmittable ...
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Analyzing diseased-based data “backwards”?

In my line of work, we have clinical samples from various stages of a pathology. We might measure levels of proteins, RNAs, etc.--we'll call them all "markers". Invariably, the presumption is that I ...
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28 views

Taylor Series Power Function in R

I'm trying to recreate a compartmental model from Yu et al (2017). In this model there is a expanded taylor series power function that is used that I am not understanding how to code. where W(t) = 0, ...
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18 views

Sensitivity and specificity on cases rather than individual days

I have data collected from sensors to detect disease in several individuals. Each individual has a known disease status (labelled Actual in the table below) for ...
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How to tell a method is improving the detection of a disease?

We have two methods, A and B, for detecting a disease. Out of a 1000 samples with unknown prevalence, A detects 100 samples (10%). On the remaining 900 negatives, we apply the additional method B, and ...
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38 views

Bayesian formulation of disease test: What likelihood function to use? [closed]

Disease Test: In this classic example of Bayes' theorem for discrete events, one would like to determine the posterior probability of the patient having the disease, given that they test positive, ...
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86 views

Using patient characteristics to predict disease and confront with per hospital real cases

We have a large, nationwide prevalence study about the prevalence of healthcare-associated infections (HAI). We need to see if hospitals have more or less HAI than expected by their patients' ...
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91 views

Is it reasonable to use simultaneously the disease risk score and the propensity score?

I wonder whether the disease risk score and the propensity score can be simultaneously used and whether they have been ever been used together in the past.
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105 views

predictive model that includes previous predictions and models time dependence

I'm trying to predict counts of dengue fever from climate and environmental data. I'm predicting total weekly counts of dengue and the data is time-series in one week intervals over the past 20 years. ...
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559 views

Regression analysis including variables changing over time

In glaucoma management, we study the trend of a global index variable representing the entire visual field of a glaucoma patient. This concern the Mean Defect of visual sentitivity (=MD), expressed in ...
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Study the effect of 2 drugs on a symptom caused by 2 diseases

A symptom (for e.g. Headache) can be caused by 2 different diseases (X and Y). Drug “A” acts on both diseases (X and Y). Drug B acts on only second (Y) disease. Disease “X” patients will be treated ...
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PCA (with phi/tetrachoric correlation matrix) or LTM to study the correlation of (true) dichotomous variables?

I am doing a study were I have to initially do an exploratory analysis by grouping diseases that coexist in my study population. For that I have x diseases/variables that are (true) dichotomous (...
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51 views

Compare disease code between two years

Data: ...
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73 views

Determining Sample Size to Show Increase in Disease Prevalence

A prof and I are trying to figure out how many samples a study would need to show a certain % increase in disease prevalence, but I'm not sure I'm doing this correctly. Basically we want to know how ...
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1answer
101 views

Power calculation for disease modeling in iPS cells

I apologize in advance if the question is rather simple, but I have been having a difficult time figuring it out. I am an experimental scientist interested in modeling human disease with induced ...
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101 views

Confusion related to Kulldorff's scan statistics

I was reading this paper related to Bayesian spatial scan statistics where I came across the Kulldorff's scan statistics. I have attached the screenshot of the paper. My objective is to find a ...
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622 views

Disease forecasting - counts or rates?

I'm developing a forecasting model for an infectious disease for a hospital and wanting to understand if I should use disease counts or rates (based on population or total clinic visits). What are the ...
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223 views

Associating a probability to disease propagation in regions of a map

I am trying to model disease propagation. I am considering a map separated into regions. One region is infected. There is data over time, with the number of people travelling into and out of the ...
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How do I calculate and compare incidence of infection between age-groups

We work on cervical cancer detection and we started accumulating data in 2006 by performing HPV testing on all our samples. We have accumulated a data set with almost 400,000 women. Data enters the ...
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What approach could be used for modelling virus infections?

I'm a physics graduate who ended up doing infosec so most of the statistics I ever learned is useful for thermodynamics. I'm currently trying to think of a model for working out how many of a ...