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Questions tagged [dynamic-regression]

Dynamic regression is a type of regression, where one of the independent variables is a lagged dependent variable.

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Dynamic Pooled OLS: does it make sense?

I have data on 25 countries for about 35 years. I want to estimate a POLS as I am not looking for a causal interpretation but just sttistical correlation between two phenomena. That's why I will not ...
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42 views

Time series model for demand forecasting?

I have a time series $Y_t$ (example:university applications received in a certain month) which I want to forecast. I have another time series $X_t$ and I know that $Y_t$ is related to past lags of $...
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44 views

Short Run vs Long Run Effect in Dynamic Panel Regressions

This video differentiates between short run and long run effects of an independent variable in dynamic panel regression (from 19:25 to 20:50). Firstly, I would like to know when and why do we ...
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Why is the assumption that the disturbances of a dynamic linear regression model are serially uncorrelated important and how could it be tested?

I'm a little bit confused about this assumption here. If we considered it is a dynamic linear regression model, then disturbance correlation is part of the probability. So this assumption is ...
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How to interpret Nickell or dynamic panel bias?

In a panel data setting: I am running a Fixed effects dynamic panel regression. It is well known that the coefficients associated with the dynamic variable(gamma) is biased. This is also referred to ...
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Introducing multiple lags of DV as IV in regression

Background - I have to estimate the impact of different promotional channels on the sales of a product. We don't have sales so technically it is order data at a zip level. Also, the product is highly ...
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2answers
85 views

auto.arima forecasting same value continuously for future part in r

I have a daily time series data of inbound call centre of last 10 months and i need to forecast for next two months. My all future forecasts are repeating after a week i.e. values of 2nd,3rd and 4th ...
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37 views

Lagged Dependent variable in OLS

I have a question about one of my models. I am sorry if I am using Terms wrongly, as I am part of the management research field and this quite often leads to different terminologies. I try to model ...
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34 views

How is `Arima` from `forecast`/`stats` package with external regressors (dynamic regression) evaluated?

I use the Arima function from the forecast package in R. I also took a look at this short introduction to the topic (author of ...
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28 views

Cross-correlation, cointegration, autoregressive distributed lag model or…what?

I have done my best to understand how to do it in a proper way but I have still a lot of doubts. I have two time series of counts. My a priori hypothesis is that the second time series depends on the ...
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76 views

How to run a time series regression in R? [closed]

How to use tslm function in r ti run a time series regression? Do we want to use stationary time series when using tslm function? If I tell in detail, I have y variable and another 16 explanatory ...
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1answer
64 views

Handling daily time series data for better accuracy

I have a daily observation of call volumes data starting from 28-01-2017 to 31-08-2018 a little over one and half year.On sundays calls volume are less and monday the highest showing weekly pattern. ...
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Directly estimate the cumulative multipliers from distributed lag model

Working with a distributed lag model, say with two lags, I seem to remember that it is possible to make a simple direct estimation of the cumulative effect of the lagged values of the external ...
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21 views

Short and Long term Effects in Arellano Bond

I am estimating and Arellano Bond regression on a panel dataset where t=46 and n=302 using Stata. My model is xtabond2 logdep l(1/2).logdep loglab L.loglab logfert L.logfert logtract L.logtract ...
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83 views

Using a single principle component (PC) space to describe how a dataset changes across conditions

Given a design matrix that consists of N (>100) variables and J (>100) observations (the data, itself, is actual time-series): ...
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120 views

When and why should we use Tobit Regression model?

I am trying to find out determinants of corporate cash holdings for a panel dataset of 1696 firms over a period of 21 years. The dependent variable is the ratio of 'Cash and Cash Equivalents' to '...
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21 views

Difference of Forecast ,predictors and regression residuals in auto.arima

I am forecasting daily electricity demand using daily temperature as a predictor variable in r using auto.arima and got (2,1,2)(2,0,0)7 errors. The link https://otexts.org/fpp2/dynamic.html suggest ...
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1answer
425 views

What's the definition of “Dynamic Regression Models”?

I am trying to learn about Dynamic Regression models. However, the sources on the topic is (relatively) few compared to other TS topics, and so I cannot really get a grasp of where to start. I really ...
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20 views

Model for lagged differences in dynamic panel data

I am interested in the coefficients when regressing a difference in levels of a variable on lagged differences in a panel data context. I want to know if the Nickell bias is present, and if not, what ...
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39 views

Proliferation of Instruments in DPD GMM, with large T and small N

I want to estimate a dynamic panel data model, by using the GMM. To best of my knowledge there are two main estimators, the difference GMM and the system GMM. I am working with a long panel, my T is ...
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1answer
150 views

Seasonal Arima with binary exogenous variables

I have a time series, which I would want to model using Sarima + regression. However, I have a binary variable which clearly controls the level of the time series (for the dates when it is set to 1, ...
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46 views

Does a lag dependent variable resolve nonstationarity concerns?

I'm working with a panel dataset and unit root tests suggest that my dependent variable in nonstationary. I know that I can take first differences to try to deal this issue. When I do, my results are ...
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36 views

Which test is the most convincing?

Brief background: I’m examining mediation rates in China. I have a panel dataset with N=24 provinces and T=30 years (1985-2014). For each province-year, I observe mediation rates and host of economic/...
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79 views

Dynamic treatment in difference in differences

I have quarterly data for 5 years for 50 countries. 25 of them were treated. There's missing data for some quarters/countries. However treatment was dynamic: it happened in quarter 3, then was eased ...
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12 views

How to incorporate anticipation effect in dynamic panel data model?

Suppose I would like to estimate the following dynamic panel data model: $$ Y_{st}=\beta_{0}+\theta Y_{st-1}+\delta \tau_{st}+X_{st}^{T}\beta+\lambda_{t}+\alpha_{s}+\epsilon_{st}+\gamma \epsilon_{st-1}...
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1answer
154 views

How to repoduce the fitted values from a forecast::Arima in R by hand?

We have fit an ARIMA (1,0,0) with exogenous reggressors using the forecast package in R and would like to write about this model. However when we write out the ...
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118 views

Bias in panel fixed effects model with lagged binary dependent variable?

I am working with a fixed effects logit model using a binary outcome from a panel data set where there is state dependence (so, t-1 correlated with t). I am aware of the bias introduced when lagging ...
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52 views

How to consider discontinuous external variables in dynamic regression for time-series forecasting?

I have a time series with sales data for a store. The data is for some 21 months. The store runs month-long promotions in some of the months ( say 8 out of 21). I have to find the optimum amount to be ...
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85 views

Contribution of regressors in regression with ARMA error

I am trying to forecast 'Patients' by fitting linear regression with ARMA error (auto.arima, Xreg) with 5 regressors. 'patients' and all 5 regressors have seasonality. 1) Is there any way to quantify ...
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45 views

Forecasting many stores sales with optimal reconciliation and regression

I am forecasting many stores sales via the optimal reconciliation approach. The problem is that forecasts are not as accurate as I would like. Edit: Part of the problem is that a small subset of ...
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1answer
434 views

If I add a lagged dependent variable, do I need to add the lagged independent variables too?

If I have a normal regression model y_t = βx_t + ε_t and want to add a y_(t-1), would this be proper? ...
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76 views

Do dynlm and dlm have same mathematical expressions?

I am currently using dynamic linear regression (dynlm) for my analysis. However, I do also find another model called dynamic linear model (dlm). I find that dlm has an official mathematical ...
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1answer
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Calculating, and plotting, long run effects of dynamic panel models

I am estimating an error correction model of the following form, using panel data where $i$ are countries and $t$ are years: $\Delta y_{it} = \alpha + \phi_1 y_{it-1} + \phi_2 y_{it-2} + \gamma x_{it-...
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101 views

How to deal with timeseries regressors of different lengths in Dynamic Regression Model

I plan to build a dynamic regression model with weekly sales data over a three year period (Jan 2014-Dec 2016). The three series are sales, price and advertising spend. I have complete data for all ...
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1answer
163 views

Logistic Regression with Lags

I am interested in fitting a dynamic panel model in the form of a random effects logistic regression logit P(s(t,i) = 1) for time t and subject i. The regression equation for this logistic equation ...
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1answer
68 views

Dynamic panel with X times dummy and X times (1-dummy) variables

I have a dynamic panel model that goes as follows: D is a dummy variable that takes the value of 1 if a condition is met in the previous period and zero otherwise. Is this model correct? can I put ...
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54 views

Interaction of Time Fixed Effect with one Past Outcome

I am trying to understand the identification of the following model: $y_{it} = \gamma_i + \eta_t+\epsilon_{it}$ $\forall t\leq \bar{t}$ $y_{it} = \gamma_i + \eta_t\times y_{i\bar{t}}+\epsilon_{it}$ $...
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1answer
669 views

[R]: DOLS - number of leads and lags

I have a model model_1=dynlm(y_log~x1_log+x2) where y_log, x1_log are I(1) and x2 is something between I(0) and I(1) (I rejected unit root with ADF test but KPSS ...
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2k views

What does small N or small T really mean in panel data sets?

A common notion in literature on the comparison of various estimation techniques for dynamic panel models is that it's always stressed that each of these different estimation techniques perform best ...
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1answer
468 views

Stationary of exogenous variables in Dynamic Regression with SARIMA errors

I want to create a dynamic regression model with ARIMA-errors. What I am trying to figure out is if the exogenous variable, x_t and the variable I want to predict, y_t need to have the exact same ...
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413 views

auto.arima model with many regressors

I am trying to forecast a seasonal series with 30 regressors using auto.arima. I have several questions regarding the correct methodology that I need to pursue. 1) Should I fit auto.arima with all ...
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141 views

Need help with a DOLS model

I am attempting to build a multivariate DOLS model. More specifically, it is model that is already being used where I work, but I am trying to replicate the model in R. Currently, the model is used ...
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1answer
335 views

dynamic time warping (DTW): unexpected results

on the wave of the suggestions given to me on this topic I started (time series similarities: which techniques for each transformation?) I decided to give another try at Dynamic Time Warping but I ...
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1answer
868 views

kalman filter multiple observations per time step

I'm trying to use a Kalman Filter to estimate an online dynamic regression coefficient between two variables (e.g. http://www.thealgoengineer.com/2014/online_linear_regression_kalman_filter/) In the ...
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1answer
874 views

Test for the significance of the effect of an intervention in a time series

I am looking for the best approach to test for the significance of the effect of an intervention that occurred at a known time on a time series data. Using a toy dataset as an example, I have come up ...
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2answers
3k views

What is the difference between VAR, Dynamic Regressive, and ARMAX models?

All of these models seem to be used in predicting an endogenous time series variable, using several lagged exogenous time series variables. If it is so, how do we decide when to use which?
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180 views

Prewhitening Regressors in Lagged Time Series Regression

I'm trying to identify significant lags in a time series regression such that $Y = \beta_0X_t + \beta_1X_{t-1} + ... + \beta_iX_{t-i} + \alpha_0Z_t + \alpha_1Z_{t-1} + ... + \alpha_jZ_{t-j}$ I ...
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721 views

Dynamic regression linear models in R

I have a question regarding Dynamic regression linear models. I wonder if it is possible to implement a MLR model (in R) using 'lm' and creating lagged values of predictors and dependent variables. ...
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1answer
1k views

Difference between SUTSE (Seemingly Unrelated Time Series Equations) and SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regressions)

I am studying time-series econometrics and in particular Dynamic Linear Models for multivariate time-series. Someone can help me in understanding which is the difference between SUTSE (Seemingly ...
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2answers
198 views

What is the impact of management on tree mortality caused by insect pest?

I am monitoring tree death caused by insects and potential impact of human treatment on yearly amount of tree mortality in areas with and without human intervention. My data are recorded by remote ...