# Questions tagged [elections]

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### The probability of a vote ending in a tie [duplicate]

I would like to calculate the probability that a yes/no vote among 3000 voters ends up in a tie - assuming voters cast their vote randomly. Applying the principle of ...
• 101
1 vote
52 views

### What can statistics tell us about instant runoff or ranked choice voting?

I think my most incisive retort thus far as to how Ranked Choice Voting is a bad idea, is: Why is the second vote of the loser so much more important than that of the winners’? If I hypothetically win ...
17 views

### What are approaches to model state-level estimates from a national estimate and state level correlates?

I want to model current levels of Presidential approval at the state level, based on (a) national poll (averages) of Presidential approval and (b) state level variables, particularly the percent votes ...
• 107
33 views

### How do elections prediction works [duplicate]

Here in my country it's time to choose a president. So some institutions make surveys about how many votes (in %) the candidates are gone get in the poll day. The population is about 200 million ...
• 111
75 views

### No Variance in Monte Carlo Simulation

I wanted to do a Monte Carlo simulation for some of the electoral districts in my state in the upcoming US midterms. My methodology essentially was as follows: I have a list of populations and vote ...
• 123
44 views

### Statistical method to detect possible electoral frauds

In Colombia there are 12.000 voting centers that consist of one or more electoral tables (the number of electoral tables depends on the number of registered voters in the voting center, and voting ...
• 223
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### Can using 4/5 years averages as regressors cause endogeneity?

I have a panel related to political election. Id is country and time is NOT the year but the election event sequentially ordered (first election in the country, second...and so on), so that you have, ...
• 27
1 vote
300 views

### Can a confidence interval have boundaries that are different in size in relation to the mean?

I saw a poll for local elections where 9.3% of the respondents said that they would vote for John Doe. The poll put the lower bound at 8.3% and the upper bound at 11.3%. From, what I have learned from ...
82 views

### Probability of decisive vote in USA presidential election

I would like to calculate the probability of a decisive vote in USA presidential election. This is a follow up question to this one. Is it ok to assume that in USA, there are two conditions of ...
• 1,188
10k views

### Do not vote, one vote will not reverse election results. What is wrong with this reasoning?

Do not vote, one vote will not reverse the election result. What's more, the probability of injury in a traffic collision on the way to the ballot box is much higher than your vote reversing the ...
• 1,188
468 views

I am trying to understand if the following statement is an example for Simpson paradox: "In the US elections a certain candidate got more votes than the other, but the other one was elected". I ...
370 views

### Can a k-means cluster use different measures for homogeneity and heterogeneity?

TL;DR: Is there an existing k-means clustering algorithm that can have different weights for the (minimized) in-group distance measure and the (maximized) between-group measure? Or, better yet, can ...
• 409
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### Calculating probability of a female US president [closed]

What solid evidence could we use to assess the chances of a woman being elected in the next US presidential election 2020? The last 45 US presidents were male. That's a hit rate of 100%. Intuitively ...
• 101
82 views

### How likely is strong consistence among opinion polls?

With the upcoming French presidential election (first round on 23th of April 2017) many opinion polls are ordered and presented in the news. There are several initiatives to track the results of these ...
1 vote
41 views

### Win-Lose Model appropriate if primarily only one outcome

Question: Is it appropriate to use a multinomial logit if there is only a single outcome for all but one of the three possible outcomes? How could I reframe to incorporate the possible outcomes. ...
• 121
1 vote
53 views

### When to consider controlling for confounding variables and how to go about it

David Greenwald, writer, photographer and cat owner from Portland, Oregon, tweeted on Nov. 11 that there could have been some discrepancies in swing states between counties using electronic and paper ...
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495 views

### Election fraud detection: the statistics of Quick Count

I’m reading the book Quick Count and Election Observation (chapter 5). I’m interested in understanding the statistics used in Quick Counts. Quick Counts is a methodology for verifying official ...
• 1,533
584 views

### Predict results of Elections

I have information on the votes in my town and in the country. I want to predict the results in the country's elections knowing the results in my town. What methods I can use? I have thought of ...
1 vote
204 views

### What is the ideal distribution for a GLM for comparing survey data with election results?

I'm relatively new to statistical methods. I'm hoping to learn what kind of distribution I should use for some data I have. My dependent variable is the results a candidate received by county. My ...
944 views

### How many ways there are to add up 7 numbers to sum of 180?

Farmer has 7 pigs and 180 potatoes. How many combinations of distributing those 180 potatoes there are? Order does not matter. Each pig can get from zero to 180 potatoes, but all 7 pigs must get ...
• 1,188
417 views

### Strange election results and probability of election fraud

Suppose an election is held for the leadership position in a major political party. Four candidates are running. After the election, the following results are announced: ...
• 419
54 views

### Modeling of elections: ordinal response regression?

I am trying to model a series of $N$ elections, where I observe only wins and losses, and where there are no ties. To be clear, my problem is defined as follows: the $i$th election has $n_i$ ...
• 14.6k
44 views

### How do you develop Confidence Intervals based on non average data

I am collecting votes from an election poll. The rules for voting allows the voter to select ten out of 36 candidates for election. Any candidate whom receives at least 75% of the vote or more wins ...
1 vote
280 views

### How to do pre-election polling with statistics? (discrete results)

In statistics, it is taught about samples that can have some range of numbers as their values. However, in election like presidential election, there are only several candidates to choose. In that ...
• 11
1 vote
91 views

### Comparing ballot data from two consecutive elections

I have two datasets of general elections (in a multi-party single-vote system) which I'm trying to analyze. Each has about 10,000 data points (ballots) with some 30+ features - the main features are ...
• 111
450 views

### In an election, how can we tell the certainty that a candidate will be the winner?

There was a general election where I live yesterday and the television network started calling out winners long before all ballots were opened. They turned out right on all accounts, and I'm not ...
• 263
533 views

### How is election fraud by ballot stuffing possible?

An NPR story on the upcoming Russian presidential election mentioned that 5% of polling sites would be equipped with new electronic ballot boxes that would reject attempts to submit multiple ballots. ...
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