Questions tagged [elections]

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Can this be clue of South Korea's rigged Election? [duplicate]

I don't know statistics. But Korea's rigged election theory occurs. I want to know possibility of this situation. This situation happened by pre-voting. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/...
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41 views

Probability of decisive vote in USA presidential election

I would like to calculate the probability of a decisive vote in USA presidential election. This is a follow up question to this one. Is it ok to assume that in USA, there are two conditions of ...
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7answers
9k views

Do not vote, one vote will not reverse election results. What is wrong with this reasoning?

Do not vote, one vote will not reverse the election result. What's more, the probability of injury in a traffic collision on the way to the ballot box is much higher than your vote reversing the ...
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4answers
148 views

Simpson Paradox Question

I am trying to understand if the following statement is an example for Simpson paradox: "In the US elections a certain candidate got more votes than the other, but the other one was elected". I ...
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96 views

Can a k-means cluster use different measures for homogeneity and heterogeneity?

TL;DR: Is there an existing k-means clustering algorithm that can have different weights for the (minimized) in-group distance measure and the (maximized) between-group measure? Or, better yet, can ...
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How do I apply the difference between two simplexes to a third simplex and have the result still sum to 1?

My question concerns simplexes, but I'll give an applied example instead. Imagine we are polling a national election. Three political parties compete. At the last election, the overall result was as ...
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2answers
54 views

Calculating probability of a female US president [closed]

What solid evidence could we use to assess the chances of a woman being elected in the next US presidential election 2020? The last 45 US presidents were male. That's a hit rate of 100%. Intuitively ...
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0answers
76 views

How likely is strong consistence among opinion polls?

With the upcoming French presidential election (first round on 23th of April 2017) many opinion polls are ordered and presented in the news. There are several initiatives to track the results of these ...
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0answers
28 views

Win-Lose Model appropriate if primarily only one outcome

Question: Is it appropriate to use a multinomial logit if there is only a single outcome for all but one of the three possible outcomes? How could I reframe to incorporate the possible outcomes. ...
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461 views

Election fraud detection: the statistics of Quick Count

I’m reading the book Quick Count and Election Observation (chapter 5). I’m interested in understanding the statistics used in Quick Counts. Quick Counts is a methodology for verifying official ...
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1answer
565 views

Predict results of Elections

I have information on the votes in my town and in the country. I want to predict the results in the country's elections knowing the results in my town. What methods I can use? I have thought of ...
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1answer
116 views

What is the ideal distribution for a GLM for comparing survey data with election results?

I'm relatively new to statistical methods. I'm hoping to learn what kind of distribution I should use for some data I have. My dependent variable is the results a candidate received by county. My ...
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1answer
778 views

How many ways there are to add up 7 numbers to sum of 180?

Farmer has 7 pigs and 180 potatoes. How many combinations of distributing those 180 potatoes there are? Order does not matter. Each pig can get from zero to 180 potatoes, but all 7 pigs must get ...
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2answers
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Strange election results and probability of election fraud

Suppose an election is held for the leadership position in a major political party. Four candidates are running. After the election, the following results are announced: ...
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46 views

Modeling of elections: ordinal response regression?

I am trying to model a series of $N$ elections, where I observe only wins and losses, and where there are no ties. To be clear, my problem is defined as follows: the $i$th election has $n_i$ ...
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1answer
39 views

How do you develop Confidence Intervals based on non average data

I am collecting votes from an election poll. The rules for voting allows the voter to select ten out of 36 candidates for election. Any candidate whom receives at least 75% of the vote or more wins ...
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1answer
254 views

How to do pre-election polling with statistics? (discrete results)

In statistics, it is taught about samples that can have some range of numbers as their values. However, in election like presidential election, there are only several candidates to choose. In that ...
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Comparing ballot data from two consecutive elections

I have two datasets of general elections (in a multi-party single-vote system) which I'm trying to analyze. Each has about 10,000 data points (ballots) with some 30+ features - the main features are ...
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2answers
425 views

In an election, how can we tell the certainty that a candidate will be the winner?

There was a general election where I live yesterday and the television network started calling out winners long before all ballots were opened. They turned out right on all accounts, and I'm not ...
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2answers
428 views

How is election fraud by ballot stuffing possible?

An NPR story on the upcoming Russian presidential election mentioned that 5% of polling sites would be equipped with new electronic ballot boxes that would reject attempts to submit multiple ballots. ...
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1answer
204 views

Where to find “Incumbent party margin of victory data”?

In Which Economic Indicators Best Predict Presidential Elections?, Nate Silver references a variable called "Incumbent Party Margin of Victory" for US presidential elections. I was wondering, is ...