Skip to main content

Questions tagged [elections]

The tag has no usage guidance.

Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
0 votes
0 answers
15 views

Modeling demographic patterns in voting using Bayes's rule

If a town is 60% orange and 40% not orange and just voted 50% for Party A and 50% for Party B, and we have a prior $\theta$ (maybe from a recent regional election) that gives us $P(A|O,\theta)$ , $P(A|...
Will's user avatar
  • 1
0 votes
0 answers
27 views

The probability of a vote ending in a tie [duplicate]

I would like to calculate the probability that a yes/no vote among 3000 voters ends up in a tie - assuming voters cast their vote randomly. Applying the principle of ...
nest's user avatar
  • 101
1 vote
0 answers
52 views

What can statistics tell us about instant runoff or ranked choice voting?

I think my most incisive retort thus far as to how Ranked Choice Voting is a bad idea, is: Why is the second vote of the loser so much more important than that of the winners’? If I hypothetically win ...
Nick Carducci for Carface Bank's user avatar
2 votes
0 answers
17 views

What are approaches to model state-level estimates from a national estimate and state level correlates?

I want to model current levels of Presidential approval at the state level, based on (a) national poll (averages) of Presidential approval and (b) state level variables, particularly the percent votes ...
stat_is_quo's user avatar
0 votes
1 answer
42 views

How do elections prediction works [duplicate]

Here in my country it's time to choose a president. So some institutions make surveys about how many votes (in %) the candidates are gone get in the poll day. The population is about 200 million ...
Pinteco's user avatar
  • 111
2 votes
1 answer
89 views

No Variance in Monte Carlo Simulation

I wanted to do a Monte Carlo simulation for some of the electoral districts in my state in the upcoming US midterms. My methodology essentially was as follows: I have a list of populations and vote ...
evamvid's user avatar
  • 123
2 votes
1 answer
44 views

Statistical method to detect possible electoral frauds

In Colombia there are 12.000 voting centers that consist of one or more electoral tables (the number of electoral tables depends on the number of registered voters in the voting center, and voting ...
user2246905's user avatar
0 votes
1 answer
22 views

Can using 4/5 years averages as regressors cause endogeneity?

I have a panel related to political election. Id is country and time is NOT the year but the election event sequentially ordered (first election in the country, second...and so on), so that you have, ...
Macrina 's user avatar
1 vote
1 answer
462 views

Can a confidence interval have boundaries that are different in size in relation to the mean?

I saw a poll for local elections where 9.3% of the respondents said that they would vote for John Doe. The poll put the lower bound at 8.3% and the upper bound at 11.3%. From, what I have learned from ...
Kerem Tuncer's user avatar
0 votes
0 answers
83 views

Probability of decisive vote in USA presidential election

I would like to calculate the probability of a decisive vote in USA presidential election. This is a follow up question to this one. Is it ok to assume that in USA, there are two conditions of ...
Przemyslaw Remin's user avatar
80 votes
7 answers
10k views

Do not vote, one vote will not reverse election results. What is wrong with this reasoning?

Do not vote, one vote will not reverse the election result. What's more, the probability of injury in a traffic collision on the way to the ballot box is much higher than your vote reversing the ...
Przemyslaw Remin's user avatar
4 votes
4 answers
499 views

Simpson Paradox Question

I am trying to understand if the following statement is an example for Simpson paradox: "In the US elections a certain candidate got more votes than the other, but the other one was elected". I ...
Josh Maxim's user avatar
0 votes
0 answers
373 views

Can a k-means cluster use different measures for homogeneity and heterogeneity?

TL;DR: Is there an existing k-means clustering algorithm that can have different weights for the (minimized) in-group distance measure and the (maximized) between-group measure? Or, better yet, can ...
Chris Wilson's user avatar
0 votes
2 answers
90 views

Calculating probability of a female US president [closed]

What solid evidence could we use to assess the chances of a woman being elected in the next US presidential election 2020? The last 45 US presidents were male. That's a hit rate of 100%. Intuitively ...
Pierre B's user avatar
  • 101
4 votes
0 answers
83 views

How likely is strong consistence among opinion polls?

With the upcoming French presidential election (first round on 23th of April 2017) many opinion polls are ordered and presented in the news. There are several initiatives to track the results of these ...
Michaël Le Barbier's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers
41 views

Win-Lose Model appropriate if primarily only one outcome

Question: Is it appropriate to use a multinomial logit if there is only a single outcome for all but one of the three possible outcomes? How could I reframe to incorporate the possible outcomes. ...
bwp8nt's user avatar
  • 121
1 vote
0 answers
53 views

When to consider controlling for confounding variables and how to go about it

David Greenwald, writer, photographer and cat owner from Portland, Oregon, tweeted on Nov. 11 that there could have been some discrepancies in swing states between counties using electronic and paper ...
Antoni Parellada's user avatar
4 votes
0 answers
497 views

Election fraud detection: the statistics of Quick Count

I’m reading the book Quick Count and Election Observation (chapter 5). I’m interested in understanding the statistics used in Quick Counts. Quick Counts is a methodology for verifying official ...
PolBM's user avatar
  • 1,583
0 votes
1 answer
585 views

Predict results of Elections

I have information on the votes in my town and in the country. I want to predict the results in the country's elections knowing the results in my town. What methods I can use? I have thought of ...
user4563174's user avatar
1 vote
1 answer
205 views

What is the ideal distribution for a GLM for comparing survey data with election results?

I'm relatively new to statistical methods. I'm hoping to learn what kind of distribution I should use for some data I have. My dependent variable is the results a candidate received by county. My ...
Estimate the estimators's user avatar
5 votes
1 answer
951 views

How many ways there are to add up 7 numbers to sum of 180?

Farmer has 7 pigs and 180 potatoes. How many combinations of distributing those 180 potatoes there are? Order does not matter. Each pig can get from zero to 180 potatoes, but all 7 pigs must get ...
Przemyslaw Remin's user avatar
3 votes
2 answers
422 views

Strange election results and probability of election fraud

Suppose an election is held for the leadership position in a major political party. Four candidates are running. After the election, the following results are announced: ...
nikosd's user avatar
  • 419
2 votes
0 answers
55 views

Modeling of elections: ordinal response regression?

I am trying to model a series of $N$ elections, where I observe only wins and losses, and where there are no ties. To be clear, my problem is defined as follows: the $i$th election has $n_i$ ...
shabbychef's user avatar
  • 14.9k
0 votes
1 answer
44 views

How do you develop Confidence Intervals based on non average data

I am collecting votes from an election poll. The rules for voting allows the voter to select ten out of 36 candidates for election. Any candidate whom receives at least 75% of the vote or more wins ...
Javier Anderson's user avatar
1 vote
1 answer
281 views

How to do pre-election polling with statistics? (discrete results)

In statistics, it is taught about samples that can have some range of numbers as their values. However, in election like presidential election, there are only several candidates to choose. In that ...
Election's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers
92 views

Comparing ballot data from two consecutive elections

I have two datasets of general elections (in a multi-party single-vote system) which I'm trying to analyze. Each has about 10,000 data points (ballots) with some 30+ features - the main features are ...
Harel's user avatar
  • 111
16 votes
2 answers
453 views

In an election, how can we tell the certainty that a candidate will be the winner?

There was a general election where I live yesterday and the television network started calling out winners long before all ballots were opened. They turned out right on all accounts, and I'm not ...
zneak's user avatar
  • 263
10 votes
2 answers
574 views

How is election fraud by ballot stuffing possible?

An NPR story on the upcoming Russian presidential election mentioned that 5% of polling sites would be equipped with new electronic ballot boxes that would reject attempts to submit multiple ballots. ...
Ben Jackson's user avatar
2 votes
1 answer
213 views

Where to find "Incumbent party margin of victory data"?

In Which Economic Indicators Best Predict Presidential Elections?, Nate Silver references a variable called "Incumbent Party Margin of Victory" for US presidential elections. I was wondering, is ...
Zach's user avatar
  • 24.1k