# Questions tagged [elicitation]

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### How to elicit prediction intervals from clients?

When I prepare probabilistic forecasts I am often left with a choice of what percentage highest-density region to choose for prediction intervals for clients. This matters for reporting uncertainty to ...
• 9,381
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### Example studies that use inferences from cross-validation of the entire dataset

I am performing a study where I perform inferences based on cross-validation metrics that use the entire dataset. My reasoning behind this is (a) my dataset is small and imbalanced and (b) this is ...
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### Drawing inferences from multiple modal estimates of a random variable

I'm working to elicit a probability distribution from the Survey of Private Dealers, a ~monthly survey concerning the future direction of certain financial random variables. Latest example here. There ...
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### Combining triangular distributions

Vose (in Risk analysis a quantitative guide, 2008) argues that it is preferable to use non-parametric distributions when eliciting knowledge about an unknown distribution from experts. The argument is ...
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### Prior elicitation with Inverse Gamma and parametrization issue

This is a homework problem. I am very new to Bayesian conjugate analysis, so hang on with me. I have a sample $(x_1...x_n)$ of $n=20$ observations from an experiment. These observations are breakdown ...
• 704
364 views

### How does one formalize a prior probability distribution? Are there rules of thumb or tips one should use?

While I like to think I have good grasp of the concept of prior information in Bayesian statistical analysis and decision making, I often have trouble wrapping my head around its application. I have ...
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1 vote
1k views

### How to elicit prior distribution parameters?

A random sample of 300 women aged 60–69 years whose immediate families have had histories of cancer are to be screened for breast cancer. Let $y_i$ be 1 if woman i has a positive test, and 0 if not, ...
• 951
170 views

### Could prior elicitation by actually drawing the density of the prior be sensible? Has it been done/discussed?

Somebody mentioned, I don't remember who, that "there are many ways to specify the prior, you could even draw it!". It is clear to me that it is possible to actually draw the density of the prior ...
• 6,840
275 views

### Prior elicitation with Normal-Gamma or Normal-Inverse-Gamma

I am looking for a way to have experts elicit a prior for a Normal-Inverse-Gamma Bayesian linear regression model. Is there any material suggesting intuitive ways to go about this?
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### estimating beta parameter

I have data on 500 examinees with responses to 20 questions. Because the response is dichotomous, I use Beta(1,1) as the conjugate prior. Now I’m interested in using Beta(alpha, alpha) as the prior. ...
884 views

### What distribution can be closely (or precisely) fit to the "5 number summary" statistics?

I'm programming a web tool (="I'm a stats ignoramous who drifted here from stackoverflow.com") that allows scientists to enter predictions about the 5-number-summary stats for a variable. Entry is ...
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### Reliability in Elicitation Exercise

I am trying to calculate the reliability in an elicitation exercise by analysing some test-retest questions given to the experts. The experts elicited a series of probability distributions which were ...
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### Eliciting priors from experts

How should I elicit prior distributions from experts when fitting a Bayesian model?
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