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Questions tagged [elicitation]

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2 votes
0 answers
48 views

How to elicit prediction intervals from clients?

When I prepare probabilistic forecasts I am often left with a choice of what percentage highest-density region to choose for prediction intervals for clients. This matters for reporting uncertainty to ...
Galen's user avatar
  • 9,381
0 votes
0 answers
31 views

Example studies that use inferences from cross-validation of the entire dataset

I am performing a study where I perform inferences based on cross-validation metrics that use the entire dataset. My reasoning behind this is (a) my dataset is small and imbalanced and (b) this is ...
Adam_G's user avatar
  • 371
2 votes
1 answer
28 views

Drawing inferences from multiple modal estimates of a random variable

I'm working to elicit a probability distribution from the Survey of Private Dealers, a ~monthly survey concerning the future direction of certain financial random variables. Latest example here. There ...
MikeRand's user avatar
  • 442
2 votes
1 answer
894 views

Combining triangular distributions

Vose (in Risk analysis a quantitative guide, 2008) argues that it is preferable to use non-parametric distributions when eliciting knowledge about an unknown distribution from experts. The argument is ...
Daniel C's user avatar
3 votes
1 answer
1k views

Prior elicitation with Inverse Gamma and parametrization issue

This is a homework problem. I am very new to Bayesian conjugate analysis, so hang on with me. I have a sample $(x_1...x_n)$ of $n=20$ observations from an experiment. These observations are breakdown ...
Easymode44's user avatar
10 votes
1 answer
364 views

How does one formalize a prior probability distribution? Are there rules of thumb or tips one should use?

While I like to think I have good grasp of the concept of prior information in Bayesian statistical analysis and decision making, I often have trouble wrapping my head around its application. I have ...
Phil's user avatar
  • 405
1 vote
1 answer
1k views

How to elicit prior distribution parameters?

A random sample of 300 women aged 60–69 years whose immediate families have had histories of cancer are to be screened for breast cancer. Let $y_i$ be 1 if woman i has a positive test, and 0 if not, ...
Günal's user avatar
  • 951
8 votes
2 answers
170 views

Could prior elicitation by actually drawing the density of the prior be sensible? Has it been done/discussed?

Somebody mentioned, I don't remember who, that "there are many ways to specify the prior, you could even draw it!". It is clear to me that it is possible to actually draw the density of the prior ...
Rasmus Bååth's user avatar
5 votes
0 answers
275 views

Prior elicitation with Normal-Gamma or Normal-Inverse-Gamma

I am looking for a way to have experts elicit a prior for a Normal-Inverse-Gamma Bayesian linear regression model. Is there any material suggesting intuitive ways to go about this?
em70's user avatar
  • 521
4 votes
1 answer
153 views

estimating beta parameter

I have data on 500 examinees with responses to 20 questions. Because the response is dichotomous, I use Beta(1,1) as the conjugate prior. Now I’m interested in using Beta(alpha, alpha) as the prior. ...
Stephen Jung's user avatar
10 votes
3 answers
884 views

What distribution can be closely (or precisely) fit to the "5 number summary" statistics?

I'm programming a web tool (="I'm a stats ignoramous who drifted here from stackoverflow.com") that allows scientists to enter predictions about the 5-number-summary stats for a variable. Entry is ...
Seth's user avatar
  • 223
9 votes
2 answers
1k views

Reliability in Elicitation Exercise

I am trying to calculate the reliability in an elicitation exercise by analysing some test-retest questions given to the experts. The experts elicited a series of probability distributions which were ...
Amanda's user avatar
  • 575
55 votes
6 answers
6k views

Eliciting priors from experts

How should I elicit prior distributions from experts when fitting a Bayesian model?
csgillespie's user avatar
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