Questions tagged [elo]

"The Elo rating system is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in competitor-versus-competitor games such as chess" (Wikipedia)

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13 views

Elo, but with vector rankings

Elo gives us scalar rankings: A has 1500 points, B has 1200 points, and as such A will beat B in ~75% of games. In some sports, performance is closer to a vector, where some players are better at ...
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34 views

Winning probability in multiplayer game with variable number of players

In a multiplayer game up to 10 players can play against each other and only 1 player can win. There can be no collaboration between players. Let's assume that the 10 players are called: A, B, C, D, E,...
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12 views

Intuition for Glicko rating periods

From the Glicko specification: The Glicko system works best when the number of games in a rating period is moderate, say an average of 5-10 games per player in a rating period What's the ...
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27 views

Does the Elo K-factor affect winning probabilities?

Per the Wikipedia article on Elo ratings: The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each ...
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14 views

ELO Ratings possible between groups and then individuals?

I'm putting together a little RPG that, like many, begins with character selection. One thing that frustrates me about many games if you have to make immutable decisions before you know what's useful. ...
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54 views

What are the Elo formulas when assuming performance to be logistically distributed?

I'm struggling to find a definite source on the Elo rating system but from what I understand: it originally assumes players performance to be normally distributed with $\sigma = 1$ the expected ...
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3answers
77 views

Is the difference between two MSEs significant?

I developed several Elo rankings and used MSEs to compare them on their predictive capacity of the 2018 World Cup. I've been asked to use a statistical test to find if the difference between two of my ...
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54 views

Autocorrelation in Elo ratings

FiveThirtyEight uses the following formula for their NFL Elo ratings: $$ R_i^{k+1} = R_i^k + K \cdot M(z) \cdot A(x) \cdot (S_{ij} - \sigma(x)) $$ where $z$ is the game's margin of victory, $x=R_i^k - ...
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1answer
70 views

Using a generalised linear model for tennis winning probability

I have a dataset of historical tennis matches, one row per match. Each row has the ELO points of each player, and a calculated ELO difference. And of course a column to indicate if Player 1 won as a 1 ...
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50 views

In sports modelling, are hot simulations better or cold simulations?

I'm thinking here largely of the context in which someone has an Elo rating model for a particular sport. To calculate things such as how often the team makes the Finals series, or wins the ...
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90 views

How to regress ELO scores back to the mean in R? [closed]

I am using the elo package in R to calculate college football scores over the course of several decades. But I am having trouble understanding the regression function in the package: This is the ...
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88 views

Skill-based ranking system with individual performance

I am attempting to rank players in an online game and have successfully used TrueSkill to create a good ranking system however I would like to take it a step further and let individual performance ...
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75 views

Elo-type ranking system that incorporates game score

The Elo rating system is used to calculate relative skill levels between individuals or teams. It can be applied to many types of games and sports, but when applied, it only considers wins and losses. ...
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26 views

Estimating hidden rating in games

There are a number of online games (e.g. Overwatch, League of Legends) that use a hidden rating system thats designed to be an estimate of your "true" skill level, and is used to match you with/...
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228 views

Does Elo rating system address isolated groups of players?

I am looking to apply a flavor of the Elo Rating System to a game that is played all over the world (not chess) and am toying with the idea of adding what I might consider an "enhancement" to it. So ...
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99 views

Elo Ranking Expected Scores

I am implementing an Elo ranking system for fun and came across an example on Wikipedia that I can't follow: Suppose Player A has a rating of 1613, and plays in a five-round tournament. He or she ...
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1answer
36 views

How to compute global elo ratings when teams mostly play in their own regions?

I'm trying to compute a global elo rating for a popular eSports title, but the problem is that the teams mostly compete in their own regions. Specifically, there are five major regions, and teams ...
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1answer
192 views

Elo ranking for attack and defence seperately

I want to create a simple statistical model for the bowler versus batsman contest in a game of cricket (it's similar to pitcher versus batter in baseball). Let's say the simple the model is this: One ...
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2k views

Determining proper K value for Elo rating

For the question I previously posted here with a general question about elo ranking applied to a a bit weird sport. From the ranking POV it's a bit like marathon - you can have up to n players but - ...
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1answer
182 views

How can I make Elo ranking system more diversified?

As far as I know, Elo ranking system generates points between 100-2800 generally. However lets say we have 1,000,000 players. Now this range of points is too small. Many players would get the same ...
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1answer
352 views

ELO rating for non-pairing sport + serious math

I was considering sport disciplines for which there are multiple players at the event but rather than playing against each other, they do stuff, are assigned points and their final position is based ...
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1answer
121 views

How can I calculate expected finishing order in a board game?

I'm tracking stats for my board game group. I'm using a modified ELO system where I consider each game of multiple players be a group of 1v1 matches between all pairs of players as seen here: http://...
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107 views

Distribution for Paired Elo Matches Drawn from Normal Distribution

Is there a nice way (closed form) to represent the distribution of $Z$ that results from taking two independent normal draws $X_1, X_2 \sim N(0,1)$ and determining the outcome using $Y \sim U(0,1)$ ...
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5k views

Do alternatives to Elo exist for non-team/individual events?

Are there any well-known rating or ranking systems, similar to Elo, for multi-participant events? For example, a system that can rate various forms of racing (auto, downhill, horse etc.) or other ...
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1k views

Accounting for “autocorrelation” in margin-based Elo ratings

I'm trying to incorporate margin-weighting into a simple Elo rating system for a sports league. Classic Elo only encompasses Win/Draw/Loss data but I want to further reward teams for winning by a ...
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130 views

Comparing two values in a normal distribution after cutting off the tail of the distribution

I'm doing a sports-related analysis about comparing regular-season performance versus playoff performance, in particular which teams tend to do better during the playoffs. Thus, I'm making a "regular ...
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62 views

ELO Rating for players that do not learn

Lately there are some AI competitions online, where the bot has no capability to "learn/adapt" (ironically) over games. Thus, each uploaded version of a bot by a player is static. On the website, ...
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5k views

How to get started with rating and ranking based on pairwise competition data?

I'm interesting in learning about how to rate and rank individuals in a group who only interact/compete in a pairwise fashion (i.e., systems like the ELO rating system for chess). Are there are any ...