Questions tagged [fallacy]

The tag has no usage guidance.

Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
1
vote
0answers
19 views

Name for spurious linear Regression Plots

Yesterday I was at a medical conference in which a lot of plots of Point Clouds with linear fits were shown. In many cases the fit seemed (at least to me and colleagues) to be influenced mostly by ...
1
vote
0answers
32 views

OLS difference between individual level and aggregate level estimates

I am new here, so please accept my apologies if this does not belong here. My question essentially concerns what appears to me a special case of the ecological fallacy. Consider a simple model that ...
4
votes
1answer
97 views

Example of danger of ecological correlation of rates?

Lots of textbooks and websites warn about drawing conclusions from "ecological correlations" which are defined as correlations between rates or averages. All the places I've looked at have used the ...
28
votes
10answers
7k views

Regression to the mean vs gambler's fallacy

On the one hand, I have the regression to the mean and on the other hand I have the gambler´s fallacy. I have had a good performance in the last game and, according to the regression to the mean, ...
6
votes
1answer
108 views

Is there a word for believing events are independent when they are not?

This is sort of like the opposite of the gamblers fallacy, although it's not the "inverse gamblers fallacy". For instance, if I observe that in some condition, the expression of Gene A is elevated ...
15
votes
2answers
11k views

The linearity of variance

I think the following two formulas are true: $$ \mathrm{Var}(aX)=a^2 \mathrm{Var}(X) $$ while a is a constant number $$ \mathrm{Var}(X + Y)=\mathrm{Var}(X)+\mathrm{Var}(Y) $$ if $X$, $Y$ are ...
5
votes
5answers
483 views

Statistical fallacy when not controlling for variables?

When someone says "You never see a Ferrari rust like a Honda", the logical flaw is that a Honda is typically used as daily drivers thru severe winters, while a Ferrari is a 2nd or 3rd car limited to ...
23
votes
6answers
626 views

Texas sharpshooter fallacy in exploratory data analysis

I was reading this article in Nature in which some fallacies are explained in the context of data analysis. I noticed that the Texas sharpshooter fallacy was particularly difficult to avoid: A ...
4
votes
0answers
91 views

Is there a name for a fallacy, when a word is understood colloquially instead of technically?

I sometimes encounter a view that only perfect forecasting is really forecasting. For example, if I claim that I have a model which forecasts election results, people will think I'm making the ...
2
votes
1answer
2k views

(non) linear regression on graphs with multiple y per x values

I have a data set with multiple y values per x value. Using Excel the scatter plot and the regression line tools, I wish to apply regression on the data to determine if there is any connection between ...
7
votes
2answers
446 views

Why is the Likelihood function NOT a case of the inverse fallacy?

This may be a trivial question, but as a research psychologist I do not have a robust statistics background to answer it. It appears to me that the likelihood function--$L(\theta | \text{data}) = P(\...
0
votes
0answers
346 views

What are the most dangerous concepts in the practice of data analysis?

There are a few things that are heavily used in the practice of statistics, data analysis, etc. and that form the common canon of education, yet everybody knows they are not exactly true, useful, well-...
16
votes
4answers
641 views

War stories where wrong decisions were made based on statistical information?

I think it is fair to say statistics is an applied science so when averages and standard deviations are calculated it is because someone is looking to make some decisions based on those numbers. ...
228
votes
46answers
22k views

What are common statistical sins?

I'm a grad student in psychology, and as I pursue more and more independent studies in statistics, I am increasingly amazed by the inadequacy of my formal training. Both personal and second hand ...