Questions tagged [forecastability]

Forecastability refers to how well a time series can be forecasted. It is frequently expressed as a lower bound in the achievable forecast accuracy for some error measure.

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How to know that your machine learning problem is hopeless?

Imagine a standard machine-learning scenario: You are confronted with a large multivariate dataset and you have a pretty blurry understanding of it. What you need to do is to make predictions ...
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4answers
3k views

Assessing forecastability of time series

Suppose i have a little over 20.000 monthly time series spanning from Jan'05 to Dec'11. Each of these representing global sales data for a different product. What if, instead of computing forecasts ...
10
votes
2answers
2k views

How to determine Forecastability of time series?

One of the important issues being faced by forecasters is if the given series can be forecasted or not ? I stumbled on an article entitled "Entropy as an A Priori Indicator of Forecastability" by ...