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Questions tagged [games]

Use this tag for sports and games like video games, poker, chess, go, and others similar. Do not use it for puzzles or enigma questions (see puzzle tag).

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-4 votes
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Does kerbal space program 2 have devs? [closed]

Nothing tells me that ksp2 is dead but also no information about the remaining devs.
Luigi's user avatar
  • 1
2 votes
1 answer
41 views

How to evaluate whether the results of multiple games conform to the probability distribution of their respective states

There are $n$ games, and each game has a state after the start. Based on this state, the probability of the outcome of the game can be calculated. For example, there are 3 type of results, and the ...
keook monsk's user avatar
0 votes
0 answers
23 views

Poker strategy with blind betting

I came across a version of Texas hold ‘em poker where if you’re blind, your chip value is doubled at betting time (ie. to call 10, you only put in 5). You can look at your cards at any time, at which ...
olivarb's user avatar
  • 173
1 vote
1 answer
40 views

Computing heuristic from winrate and number of games

I need to sort big sets of players (of a MOBA) based on their performance represented by their - number of - games and their winrate on these games. I reduced the initial set of players based on their ...
Axel Carré's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers
23 views

How many coin flips before heads has a 10 flip lead?

Coin Flip Runs Trying to figure out an optimum gambling strategy where the win/loss outcome of every roll is 50/50. If I’m using a laddering or martingale system on losses, I need to know how many ...
Michael James's user avatar
1 vote
1 answer
17 views

Gambling in multiple rounds with a maximum permitted bankroll and favorable or unfavourable probabilities

This is based on a deleted question, with the premises clarified to my understanding. You are gambling in a casino with particular rules: Bets are paid off at even amounts, so if you win a round you ...
Henry's user avatar
  • 40.5k
5 votes
1 answer
88 views

How do bookmakers update their odds in real-time?

I wasn't satisfied with the answers on this question, so I'm asking again: how do bookmakers adjust their implied probabilities as bets arrive sequentially? Suppose there are four things to bet on, ...
Taylor's user avatar
  • 21.2k
2 votes
0 answers
49 views

How to shuffle and deal with constraints?

I'm playing a 4-player game of cards. My opponents are called A, B and C. At the beginning of the game, each player has been dealt a hand of cards out of a deck containing 4 suits of cards: Black, Red,...
FlPI3Rd8's user avatar
0 votes
0 answers
64 views

Probability of 5 card texas holdem poker royal flush

How would I calculate the probability of getting a royal flush with 2 player Texas holdem poker. A single randomly shuffled 52 card deck, 2 players (p1 & p2) are sequentially dealt 4 cards i.e. p1 ...
Jimmy3421's user avatar
3 votes
1 answer
135 views

Forecasting based on revenue and advertisement

How to forecast revenue based on previous revenue and advertisement budget? This is how the data looks like, see full data on google sheet or even better on Colab notebook. EDIT: With my limited ...
Cohensius's user avatar
  • 469
0 votes
1 answer
37 views

Is it reasonable to use Chi Square data in a bivariate analysis?

I am currently working on a report about the frequency of hand types in Texas Hold'em and whether or not the frequencies change when there are multiple players involved. For example, is there a change ...
Alexander Svendsen-Conn's user avatar
2 votes
0 answers
31 views

Probability of rolling any number 10 times at any given point in the sequence [duplicate]

Imagine a race, where each runner has a number, the race track is 100 meters, and each time you roll a fair 6-sided die, the corresponding runner moves 10 meters. I would like to calculate the ...
Bat_Dad's user avatar
  • 21
0 votes
0 answers
17 views

Getting a Many to One LSTM/MLP to overfit

I have a dataset of 20 thousand horses. For each horse, I have its 10 last historical races (finishing time, position, track name, distance etc. for 41 features) and am trying to predict its finishing ...
Harry Stuart's user avatar
0 votes
1 answer
41 views

"Last Out" Raffle Probabilities/Stats

I'm part of an online community that raffles away prizes, typically with 30 or 40 spots in a raffle. The numbered chips/balls are placed into some type of hopper, and pulled out one at a time (random/...
Matt's user avatar
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0 votes
0 answers
20 views

In games (e.g. poker) where luck/chance is a factor, should the more skilled player play more games with a lower stake?

I'm not sure if this is the right site for my question. In games (e.g. poker) where luck/chance is a factor, should the more skilled player play more games with a lower stake? Intuitively, yes, if you ...
confused's user avatar
0 votes
0 answers
27 views

Significance test for trend in time series with multiple sets of observations

Tomorrow there will be a race in which six runners participate in the 100 m dash. I will be able to capture the speed of each runner at each meter, so for each runner there will be a time series with ...
amd1972's user avatar
0 votes
1 answer
40 views

Significance of outliers with multiple weighted coins

tl;dr: I have N weighted coins, each of which has been flipped some number of times (n_i), and for which I've measured the ...
terracubist's user avatar
0 votes
0 answers
56 views

Bayesian estimation for a ranking outcome variable

I'm interested in modeling how a ranking depends on a continuous feature. I have many related groups of these rankings, so I want to use partial pooling with the usual Bayesian machinery, but I'm ...
qsfzy's user avatar
  • 101
2 votes
1 answer
180 views

Fundamental theorem of card counting: exchangeability and conditional distributions

I have some elementary queries about the relationship between exchangeability and conditional distributions. For theorem 11.6.4 in the Doctrine of Chances, Ethier S. (2010) it is proved that $\{Z_n\}_{...
microhaus's user avatar
  • 2,550
6 votes
3 answers
233 views

Players take turns to draw cards until the winner gets the first King, does it help to go first?

This question arose in a true Argentine card game called truco. Sometimes we need to choose who will play because we are too much people, so we deal cards and the first to get the king, out of 4 ...
Limbo's user avatar
  • 163
1 vote
0 answers
22 views

Who first described a statistical estimate as an approximation of a population parameter?

At some point in the history of statistics, there surely was a transition from thinking of statistical measures strictly as imperfect approximations of real quantities, to thinking of them as ...
virtuolie's user avatar
  • 642
2 votes
2 answers
116 views

Comparing the means of two groups with different sizes

I am doing an statistical study over ultra-marathon runners (100 km distance) where I have a large number of data points (race records) corresponding to the average race speed of different runners ...
David's user avatar
  • 21
0 votes
0 answers
128 views

A multidimensional ELO rating with rock paper scissors playing styles: how to estimate

Consider the following latent variable model for a potential Elo rating with additional player type. Each player has a performance level $r$ and a playing type $\theta$. Assume that a game between two ...
Sextus Empiricus's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers
28 views

Given a set of random variables, how can I find a linear combination of these variables satisfying a constraint on the sum of their permuations?

Say I have n random variables, {X0...Xn}, n>9. I also have another set of random variables constructed from the first set, where each of these are the sum of 9 ...
Eli Katz's user avatar
2 votes
1 answer
724 views

Red and Green Ball Games

Suppose we have a bag which has 1 red ball and N green balls. We randomly draw a ball from the bag: if this is red, we do not put it back and take one green ball from the bag and discard it too; if ...
DA_PA's user avatar
  • 407
1 vote
1 answer
23 views

Can I use polling techniques in card games?

In a 50 card deck where 4 copies of a card are allowed at maximum,there are around 2 million possible starting hands. My question is: If I take a random sample of the 300-350 and analyze it. Can I ...
Alyosha OL's user avatar
0 votes
0 answers
42 views

Min number of players in multiplayer game

Suppose in a multiplayer game, we have a match being played for which we need X players, when the number of players is less than ...
Tomasz Kowalczyk's user avatar
3 votes
2 answers
98 views

How many rounds to visit every place on a Monopoly style game board

I see some kids playing on a circular gameboard trying to visit every field and I wonder how long it will take before they finish. I can simulate it like below, but is there possibly an elegant ...
Sextus Empiricus's user avatar
-4 votes
1 answer
808 views

Alternatives to percentage change?

You can have the same mean but different standard deviation. Or the same standard deviation but a different coefficient of variation or 1 over signal-to-noise ratio or whatever. (I think that's the ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,444
1 vote
0 answers
34 views

Novice question about Averages - Sports Analytics

I came across a post by the SEC showcasing teams’ home record during the past 5 seasons. Although Alabama ranks first for having the most won games at home, I questioned the fairness of the average ...
theDarkKnight444's user avatar
1 vote
2 answers
301 views

Positive expected value for lottery

As far as I know, to decide either you should enter a bet or not, you should get the expected value of that bet I was wondering if the lottery has a very high expected value, is it wise to join? There ...
user avatar
0 votes
0 answers
26 views

Probability of future independent events given past and expected distribution with board games

This question is specifically in reference to how statistics apply to Catan. For background, two fair dice are rolled and rolling a 7 is a bad event. Given that the average number of turns for a game ...
wya's user avatar
  • 1
0 votes
2 answers
434 views

Assess team win rate by combining individual win rates?

Suppose I have 5 players on each team in a game where each player selects a character (League of legends, Valorant, etc.). I am considering the overall win rates of the characters, and the unique win ...
Jetset's user avatar
  • 1
0 votes
1 answer
105 views

Does adding Jokers into a normal 52 deck only add to the total # of possible hands, or does it also impact the existing hands' binomial coefficients?

The Jokers added to the deck in this case would be useless/junk cards, not wilds¹. My intuition is that there would be no impact to how we'd normally calculate the possible combinations/frequency for ...
Lilium's user avatar
  • 3
3 votes
1 answer
80 views

Testing how well a sequence of observed word game solutions corresponds to expected word frequencies

Say we have a word game where each round involves finding a unique 5-letter word solution. (Wordle would be an example, for those familiar). For example, we may have a round where the word "magic&...
u-phoria's user avatar
2 votes
0 answers
65 views

What are the statistical fallacies of illusion of control?

Illusion of control* appears in gambling and events involving randomness. For example, choosing a lottery ticket which has an additional information that participant has a control of choosing, such as ...
patagonicus's user avatar
  • 2,550
1 vote
1 answer
365 views

Can you do hypothesis testing when instead of a 'sample' size you have 'actual' size? Alternatively, how would you use statistics to compare means?

From chess se: What is white's increased advantage in chess90 as compared to chess870? (Chess960 can be split into 2 subsets, chess90 and chess870) Intro: It is known in standard chess that white has ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,444
2 votes
2 answers
434 views

Why are rating distributions 'smoother' when there are more players?

Consider the following rating distributions by variant/time control on lichess. The bullet, blitz and rapid rating distributions look very, well, 'smooth' (or holomorphic/analytic or harmonic or ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,444
1 vote
0 answers
40 views

How to model risk with Neural Networks (is there a better approach)?

What should be our target if we have our features and our return is variable. Suppose we have: ...
avloss's user avatar
  • 141
0 votes
1 answer
63 views

Confused about geometric distribution [duplicate]

So I have a game that follows a geometric distribution. There is a probability, $p$, of winning a round. If the player wins, he earns \$1,000. As soon as there is a win, the game ends. If the player ...
GIS_newb's user avatar
0 votes
1 answer
483 views

Three Envelopes Problem

In a game we have 3 envelopes, A, B, C, with a random number (from 1 to 100) sealed inside each. Nobody knows what number is inside. We win the game if we find the highest number, using only one of 2 ...
Lorenzo Negri's user avatar
4 votes
1 answer
94 views

D&D - Confidence Interval for enemy armor class

In dungeons and dragons, characters and monsters have two properties called Attack Bonus($AB \, \in \, \mathbb{Z}$) and Armor Class($AC \, \in \, \mathbb{N}$). Let $AB_c$ be the character attack bonus ...
Lucas Prates's user avatar
  • 1,223
25 votes
3 answers
2k views

Probability of defeating a dragon in one turn rolling a 20 sided die

In math class we were asked an optional problem I can't solve on my own: You are fighting a dragon with 250 hit points and are rolling a 20 sided die to deal damage. The dragon takes damage equal to ...
Chris's user avatar
  • 253
0 votes
0 answers
37 views

What subjects in statistics should I focus on to determine the optimal time to to quit a game of chance while I'm ahead?

I am trying to answer the question: Given a game of chance with a "house edge" E (defined below), what is the maximum "amount ahead" ...
JoelFan's user avatar
  • 109
0 votes
0 answers
24 views

Probablity of winning a Jumping game

I am playing a game at the moment. I won't mention it but the aim is to make around 150 perfect jumps in a row to get through a level. You can "practice" It lets you play through the level ...
Chris113's user avatar
2 votes
0 answers
79 views

Predicting outcomes of chess games based on engine evaluation of current position

I wish to train a classifier for chess games. For any given chess position, you can use one or more chess engines to give the position a numeric score (evaluation). A score less than 0 indicates that ...
kpjoshi's user avatar
  • 41
32 votes
3 answers
3k views

How can a statistician who has the data for a non-normal distribution guess better than one who only has the mean?

Let's say we have a game with two players. Both of them know that five samples are drawn from some distribution (not normal). None of them know the parameters of the distribution used to generate the ...
ryu576's user avatar
  • 2,600
0 votes
0 answers
202 views

Expected Value of a Fundraiser Raffle Ticket with Three Prizes

The raffle ticket above represents a local fundraiser. The first prize is a smart TV valued at 1200 dollars, the second prize is a cooler valued at 200 dollars, and the third prize is a 100 dollar ...
Olivier's user avatar
5 votes
1 answer
241 views

Does Sampling with or without Replacement Have the Advantage?

You're playing a game where one person chooses coins and the other chooses cards. One flips a coin at the same time the other draws a card. The game stops once either the coins-player has got 4 in a ...
Card Game's user avatar
5 votes
1 answer
267 views

Probability of winning a game for toddlers

Recently, my son got a game called Little Cooperation. The rules (see here) are very simple: We have 4 animals that need to travel from an ice flow to a safe igloo. Between a flow and an igloo there ...
Łukasz Deryło's user avatar

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