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Questions tagged [games]

Use this tag for sports and games like video games, poker, chess, go, and others similar. Do not use it for puzzles or enigma questions (see puzzle tag).

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23 views

Computing the probability of winning the grand prize in a hypothetical game

I'm a beginner to probability so please be a bit gentle on me. I have trouble finding the correct approach / search terms to find related problems. I face the following problem. In a hypothetical ...
4
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1answer
32 views

Crew selection: ranking rowers by letting them race against each other

Seat selection is a common practice in competitive rowing and I would be curious about more solid statistical underpinnings: there are more rowers in a team than the 8 seats in the crew boat. So the ...
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0answers
22 views

Neural Network and equally good predictions

There is a two-player game (discrete, deterministic, perfect information and so on) where - in some but not all states - a few moves may be equally good; i.e. they are symmetric and expert player will ...
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0answers
19 views

Input/ouput design for deep reinforcement learning for imperfect information game

I'm working on a bot that plays an imperfect information game similar to chess, where each move you are effectively moving a piece from one location to another. I'm trying to decide what the best way ...
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0answers
26 views

Optimum betting strategy guaranteeing rate of return

A man likes to bet on football matches. He wants to systematise his betting so that he can sleep better at night. His ratio of correct bets to all bets he has made is $r$. He wants to develop a system ...
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0answers
4 views

Are there any exisitng scales (e.g. in a paper) for measuring perception of a short team task (or general tasks) in a questionnaire?

The task in concern is a one-time 10-20 second game to be played as a team. Scale can be Likert scale or metric scale (if possible). Perception is e.g. whether the game is boring/interesting, ...
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0answers
28 views

Target for a Poker game Neural Network

I've created a python simulation of a texas holdem poker game with 3 random actions, check/fold, check/call and bet. I have then looped this round several times to produce a training data set for each ...
2
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1answer
44 views

Creating a neural network that can make a decision with optional arguments

I'm a final year computer science student and for my final year project I have to design a neural network to play a little known board game called 'The Downfall of Pompeii'. I have to use ...
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0answers
17 views

What method or algorithm is used for computing Power Curve in cycling power data analysis?

Many cycling analytics apps, for example, Strava, TrainingPeaks or GoldenCheetah are offering the Power curve chart, computed from the cycling power time series data. I'm familiar with the curve ...
0
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1answer
15 views

The Scrabble Letter Odds Question [closed]

The Question I Have Involves the possible change in chance based on a changing sample size, if that sounds correct. The Example is, you have 100 tiles, with 5 players, each grabbing 8 tiles each. ...
0
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1answer
25 views

R code not working as it should? [closed]

I wanted to show computationally that if $2$ poker players are playing heads-up (1 vs. 1) and going all-in on coin flips, then a player with $X\%$ of the chips would win $X\%$ of the time. However ...
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0answers
29 views

NFL Playoff Game Probabilities

Context: My friends and I have this homebrew NFL fantasy football game we play for the playoffs once the NFL regular season is over. The contest is not head-to-head with other players like standard ...
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0answers
72 views

Pooling Horse Racing Odds with a Logit Model

I am using a logit model to pool the odds from two bookies and a betting exchange. I have thousands of data points across many races, horses and race tracks and am trying to predict the probability of ...
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4answers
67 views

In a card game, how to check if hand patterns are fair?

I'm playing contract bridge and the boards are dealt by a machine. Last time, one of the player suggested the boards are not dealt at random and I want to check that. At contract bridge, each player ...
1
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1answer
27 views

Probability distribution for draws with conditional replacement? (or how many matches does it take to beat Yugi The Destiny?)

While trying to figure out an old video game, I seem to have stumbled upon a problem that's halfway between a binomial distribution problem and a hyper-geometric distribution problem. With the hopes ...
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0answers
68 views

Carnival Ball toss game, how often will the same spot be hit

I, unfortunately, am ignorant when it comes to statistical analysis. I do enjoy exercising my math brain with interesting questions. Here is the question that popped into my head and I don't know how ...
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2answers
991 views

If I roll a die 25 times what is the probability that the mean outcome is greater than 4?

Consider a problem: You take a fair die to a party and announce that you will roll it 25 times. You will record each outcome and at the end average the 25 outcomes together to get their ...
3
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2answers
155 views

Principled understanding of why AlphaZero's algorithm works?

Roughly, AlphaGo/AlphaGo Zero 's algorithm is as follows: Using a policy network, generate a distribution of move probabilities (intuitively, capturing how good those moves are based on a first-...
2
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1answer
39 views

Bridge Hand Probabilities

Each of the 4 players in the game of bridge get dealt 13 cards. One player and his partner can see they hold 8 of the heart cards so they know that the 2 remaining hands they can't see hold the ...
2
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1answer
24 views

Calculate advantage of Serves in Table Tennis

In table tennis there's an ongoing controversy about "illegal" serves. Often the question arises how strong the influence of serves on winning probability is. I stumbled upon a recent paper, but I ...
1
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1answer
49 views

working on a derivation of 7 card poker where I allow 7 and 6 card hands

I'm doing the probability calculations having some trouble. Example 7 card flush 4*(C(13,7)-217) 6 card flush 4*(C(13,6)-71)*39 I am pretty sure these are correct I am having trouble with the 7 ...
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0answers
48 views

Incomplete Plinko board, What is it the correct probability?

Suppose I have an Plinko board, there are 2 pegs missing (2,1) and (1,1) supposing we are counting ...
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2answers
129 views

Suitable project for reinforcement learning [closed]

To get more insight in reinforcement learning I'm looking for a project for. I thought about the game connect four. Doing some research about existing works with RL and connect four I found out that ...
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0answers
24 views

References for Texas Holdem

Does anybody know any good papers or software that use Monte Carlo techniques to estimate the probability of certain hands or winning/losing a hand in Texas Holdem? Ideally I'd like to have some ...
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0answers
19 views

Lorenz curve and inequality between sports teams

I was wondering if you could develop a metric to study the inequality for a given stat such as how unequal points are distributed throughout a team, or how unequal rebounds are distributed throughout ...
4
votes
1answer
110 views

Spades - Probability for a “sure lose” blind Nil hand?

Spades is a trick-taking card game. The object is to take at least the number of tricks (also known as "books") that were bid before play of the hand began. Spades is a descendant of the Whist family ...
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0answers
31 views

How to approach the following problem?

I am trying to solve the following problem (I found it in Intro.to Probability book by AMS): In raquetball, a player continues to serve as long as she is winning; a point is scored only when a ...
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1answer
57 views

Modeling number of spectators in football

Can anyone give ideas on the possible best way forward to solve this specific machine learning problem for sports analytics? Data set looks like: ...
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1answer
69 views

Betting with odds

I have a game where I can bet on two teams: One team has odds $1.7$ The other has $1.5$ I understood that the one that pays off $1.5$ has an higher probability of victory, so it pays less. But how ...
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0answers
9 views

Number of datas regarding the number of features

I'm trying to make predictions on a video game. The game is a 5v5 battle with champions. There are about 200 different champions. My input is a vector of 10 champion IDs (5 IDs for each team) and my ...
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2answers
211 views

Model for predicting chance of winning in variable count of opponents

I have dataset with horse racing results including bookie odds - converted to percentage chance of winning. Data are stored in relation tables. The basic entity relation is described on image. Each ...
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0answers
12 views

Lottery scenario with different odds for multiple outcomes

There are 21 chances to achieve six outcomes, ranging from most desirable to sixth most desirable. There are six players. Player 1 has 6 of 21 chances to attain the most desirable outcome. Player 2 ...
2
votes
2answers
88 views

3 D6 pick 2 vs 2 D6 with 1 reroll

I was wondering if there is any statistical difference between rolling three 6 sided dice and taking the best two (looking for a 7 or higher) and rolling two 6 sided dice with the option to re-roll ...
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0answers
22 views

Gambeling question

I am organizing a card game and I need to preset my cards so that if a player draws 26 out of 52 cards randomly, chance for him to pick 4 queens in that draw is the least probable. What is the best ...
0
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1answer
229 views

How can I convert expected goals for two sports teams into win/lose/draw probabilities?

Let's assume we have a model to find the expected goals scored by two teams facing each other - Team A expect goals: 2.2 Team B expected goals: 4.6 So we can see that Team B has a higher ...
1
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1answer
49 views

Statistically significant win rate

I'm playing around with AIs for Onitama, a 2 player pefect knowledge game. I want to compare the strengths of different AIs by measuring their wins and loses and then testing for statistical ...
3
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0answers
109 views

Calculating the probability of winning a game of Rainbow Six Siege

I'm currently developing an application in Python that calculates the probability of winning a game of Rainbow Six Siege based on the skill level of the players in the game. Siege is a 5 vs. 5 ...
1
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1answer
251 views

Representation input and output nodes in neural network for $\textit{AlphaZero}$ chess?

I am wondering how the neural network for AlphaZero chess works. I know that it takes a historic set of states of the board as input nodes. But I am wondering how many output nodes there are and what ...
4
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0answers
61 views

Elo-type ranking system that incorporates game score

The Elo rating system is used to calculate relative skill levels between individuals or teams. It can be applied to many types of games and sports, but when applied, it only considers wins and losses. ...
0
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1answer
26 views

How to set up a regression for Adjusted Plus Minus with no offense and defense?

So here is the backstory: This is a game with two teams The outcome of the game is that one of the teams wins and the other loses There is no offense and defense We can use tug of war as an analogy (...
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0answers
37 views

Similarity measure of predicted football endsocre

We have a betting game going on in our firm for the FIFA World Cup 2018. We have a simple system where you get 1 point for naming the correct winner or a draw and 3 points for getting the score right. ...
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0answers
31 views

Game problems that machine learning won't solve better than humans

Is there any type of game that could not be beaten by machine learning algorithm? Checkers and chess is not a problem for computers, go also.. But is there a class of problems in terms of let's say '...
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0answers
19 views

Neural Networks in turn based hidden information / simultaneous turns games

Are there any good example of neural nets designed to play hidden information or simultaneous-turns games? Ideally ones that only play against themselves and do not use labelled data or game databases....
1
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1answer
57 views

In MDPs with deterministic actions, should I use Q-learning or TD(0)?

Suppose in an Markov Decision Process (MDP), we have transition $(s, a, r, s', a', r', s'', ...)$, learning rate $\alpha$ and discount factor $\lambda$. The update formula of $TD(0)$: $V(s) \...
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2answers
104 views

Expected number of wins until $k$ consecutive wins

We play the game, where probability that you win a game is $p$. You play until you win $k$ consecutive games. What is expected number of games you win? I can compute that expected number of games is $\...
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0answers
26 views

Estimating hidden rating in games

There are a number of online games (e.g. Overwatch, League of Legends) that use a hidden rating system thats designed to be an estimate of your "true" skill level, and is used to match you with/...
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0answers
83 views

Optimal strategy for a combinatoric dice game

The game can be played at https://xcvd.github.io/dice-game/ The player gets 12 throws of 3 dice and chooses a grid to place these throws in (there are 6*6*6=216 possible throws). Each throw ...
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0answers
28 views

Selection --> expansion in Monte Carlo tree search [closed]

I'm reading about Monte Carlo tree search. I believe I move from "selection phase" to "expansion phase" as soon as I reach a position that has at least one child node unexplored. At this point I am ...
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0answers
19 views

Keras “Set” identifier not learning as expected [duplicate]

I am using Keras to make a "set" identifier for the card game "set": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Set_(game) Here is my script (some code may be unnecessary but was used during experimentation): <...
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6answers
15k views

If I have a 58% chance of winning a point, what's the chance of me winning a ping pong game to 21, win by 2?

I have a bet with a co-worker that out of 50 ping pong games (first to win 21 points, win by 2), I will win all 50. So far we've played 15 games and on average I win 58% of the points, plus I've won ...