Questions tagged [games]

Use this tag for sports and games like video games, poker, chess, go, and others similar. Do not use it for puzzles or enigma questions (see puzzle tag).

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8 views

Find range of values 95% of the time for a weighted sample

I want to generate some data about a new game I am playing. There exists a mechanic in the game where you can critically strike, dealing extra damage. You can also deal different amounts of damage in ...
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1answer
54 views

Significance of walks vs. strikeouts in FIP calculation

According to Wikipedia, the baseball FIP statistic is calculated using: $$ \frac{13HR + 3BB - 2SO}{IP} + C $$ Why should walks be more significant than strikeouts? If the equation were to include hits,...
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What happens to American odds when the point spread gets further from zero? [closed]

I am learning about American odds (moneyline odds) and point spreads. In Chapter 2 of Sports Betting for Dummies, I see: When the point spread on a game gets further from zero, the two moneyline bets ...
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1answer
17 views

Statistical test for determining advantage from win ratio in a 4 player game

I have data from 1000 games, all performed on a group of 4 players (the group and the players are constant). For each game, I have 5 possible results -> player A wins, player B wins, player C wins, ...
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1answer
177 views

Does machine learning on random situations require a cryptographically-secure random number generator?

I'm working on a project involving using machine learning to figure out optimal strategies to play board games, and after a few rolls of the virtual dice a thought hit me: For the games that involve ...
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6answers
4k views

What are the chances rolling 6, 6-sided dice that there will be a 6?

More generally, what is the probability that n n-sided dice will turn up at least one side with the highest number ("n")? My crude thinking is that each side has 1/6 probability, so that 6 ...
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14 views

How would you work out the total number of possible plays in a game of dominoes?

Looking at a standard double-six dominoes set that has 28 tiles 0:0 through 6:6 how would we calculate (or estimate) the number of possible moves in a single game? For this so far I've come up with: ...
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1answer
225 views

In Texas Holdem, what at the odds of 3 aces on the flop, then the 4th ace drawn on the first river card? [closed]

I played Texas Holdem with some friends last night. On one hand, the dealer burned a card, drew 3 aces on the flop, then burned a card and drew the 4th ace on the first river card. My question is, ...
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1answer
57 views

De Finetti's Coherence Principle and Frequentist interpretation

So, without proof or citation, I often see that the Coherence Principle by de Finetti does not hold with Frequentist statistics. It is pretty easy to create examples of this fact. The exception ...
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28 views

Proving Randomness in a Card Game

I recently came across a card game that is played as follows. For simplicity, assume that there are 4 players. The deck of 52 cards is split evenly between them, leaving each player with 13 cards. ...
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1answer
1k views

Test to prove Poker deals are not random

I played on a mobile app of Texas holdem poker called pokerrrr 2. I suspect the game deals non-random hands. How can I prove the deals are not random? I prefer a test that can get an answer using ...
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43 views

Clustering Algorithm for data where each type has multiple observations?

I am trying to segment football teams based on their playing style using multiple features. I want to see which football teams have similar playing styles using cluster algorithms. For each team I ...
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14 views

Intuition for Glicko rating periods

From the Glicko specification: The Glicko system works best when the number of games in a rating period is moderate, say an average of 5-10 games per player in a rating period What's the ...
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1answer
64 views

Does the Elo K-factor affect winning probabilities?

Per the Wikipedia article on Elo ratings: The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each ...
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0answers
10 views

How do you define the portion of a game's result that is accounted for by chance?

I'm not sure if there's an established way of defining the concept I'm describing, but every game that can be played involving a random component — dice, coins, or otherwise — has a certain amount of ...
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33 views

Request on settling a “bar argument” about the law of large numbers

I'm currently in this argument with another person regarding whether or not it is possible to determine how much skill matters in a card game. My position is that determining this in general is ...
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1answer
35 views

How do I derive the generala formula? Does anyone know a way of thinking ot apply this to other problems? [closed]

The textbook said that it would be easy to derive the general formula. Is there a certain way of thinking that I am not seeing? I understand that the equation is doing (whole - piece) / whole. The ...
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1answer
50 views

Poker hand: probability of a straight or a straight flush

I have seen this and this, but my setup is a little different so I'm not sure how to proceed. Setup: We are using a single standard deck of 52 cards. Suppose I have been dealt two cards, and one of ...
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2answers
65 views

How to find the probability of winning this game?

Here's a very simple "game": Standard 52 card deck, shuffled. You deal cards face up, one at a time, while counting up towards 13, starting back at 1 once you reach 13. If the number you count out is ...
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19 views

Predicted Win Percentages based on Expected Scores in Game

Let's say I have a game (FTC in this case) where a 2 team alliance plays against another 2 team alliance in a match. I have each team's match history along with their OPR, which tells me how much a ...
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21 views

Leveling the field for a race competition

I'm not sure if this is really a statistics question, but I can't think of a more fitting Stack Exchange for it. My friends and I at work are having a competition to see who can decrease their one-...
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2answers
316 views

What should be statistically significant game score in football and basketball to say that one team stronger?

4 teams play 2 games: football and basketball. (2 games just to better understand theory) Final result of a football game is 2:1 Final result of basketball game is 101:96 What should be the result ...
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9 views

Example game for studying games with iterated play, imperfect information, and uncertianty

I was thinking about how to adapt techniques like those used for AlphaGo and AlphaGoZero to a game like Pokemon. In Go each player takes turns making moves (e.g. moves are not simultaneous), each ...
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1answer
71 views

Multi stage neural net

I'm going to use my specific use case here, but I'm curious about this AI structure in general. I want to create an AI to play Rocket League (a video game). For context, in Rocket League you control ...
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1answer
51 views

Paradox game for life and death

This is probably not new to any student of statistics - yet I can't find the name of that "paradox" to search for. Imagine the richest person on earth holds a game: A participant is invited to roll ...
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2answers
39 views

Useful measure to quantify how competitive a sports match is

I'm trying to put together a summary of data from a recreational sports league's most recent season. There are significant disparities in skill level between teams, so a large portion of the games ...
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3answers
350 views

Where is the bomb: How to estimate the probability, given row and column totals?

This question is inspired by a mini-game from Pokemon Soulsilver: Imagine there are 15 bombs hidden on this 5x6 area (EDIT: maximum 1 bomb/cell): Now, how would you estimate the probability to find ...
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35 views

How to model game theory of poker-like card game

I'd like to get a general understanding of the optimal strategy from a game called Team Fight Tactics. To reduce this problem into a simpler form I'd like to analyze a simpler card game problem I've ...
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1answer
30 views

Two different dice games. What are the odds the game will be won?

Based on the images above, is it correct that the first game should be won 1 out of six times, the second game every time, and the 3rd game 1 out of six times?
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1answer
83 views

How to calculate win probability for following game?

The game works like this, Suppose, there is a total of 900 numbers(1.00 to 9.99) from you can choose any one number to bet. Example: 1) If you choose 1.10 number and place a bet of 100$ on it. If ...
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22 views

flipping card with increasing probability

In an online game you can buy cards which has a 5% probability to be rare cards. If you don't have the rare card for more than 20 times, the chance of next purchase will increase by 5%, repeat until ...
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1answer
235 views

Reward attribution in deep q learning and texas holdem poker

I’m having issues with reward attribution in poker using deep q learning. Multiple actions will yield one reward, but the reward is only known at the end of the hand, not before. I have built a gym ...
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1answer
19 views

How to encode categorical variables in a video game predictive model

I'd like to make a model to predict the result of a match in a video game (win or loss). The game is 3 players against 3 players, and each player has a specific character with specific ...
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1answer
278 views

Are neural networks the wrong tool to solve this 2D platformer/shooter game? Is there a proven way to frame this problem to a neural network?

I had an attempt at training a convolutional LSTM network to imitate a player of the 2D platformer/shooter Teeworlds. This is an example of the data and labels I fed to the network: https://www....
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33 views

Computing the probability of winning the grand prize in a hypothetical game

I'm a beginner to probability so please be a bit gentle on me. I have trouble finding the correct approach / search terms to find related problems. I face the following problem. In a hypothetical ...
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2answers
71 views

Crew selection: ranking rowers by letting them race against each other

Seat selection is a common practice in competitive rowing and I would be curious about more solid statistical underpinnings: there are more rowers in a team than the 8 seats in the crew boat. So the ...
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22 views

Neural Network and equally good predictions

There is a two-player game (discrete, deterministic, perfect information and so on) where - in some but not all states - a few moves may be equally good; i.e. they are symmetric and expert player will ...
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35 views

Input/ouput design for deep reinforcement learning for imperfect information game

I'm working on a bot that plays an imperfect information game similar to chess, where each move you are effectively moving a piece from one location to another. I'm trying to decide what the best way ...
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32 views

Optimum betting strategy guaranteeing rate of return

A man likes to bet on football matches. He wants to systematise his betting so that he can sleep better at night. His ratio of correct bets to all bets he has made is $r$. He wants to develop a system ...
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44 views

Target for a Poker game Neural Network

I've created a python simulation of a texas holdem poker game with 3 random actions, check/fold, check/call and bet. I have then looped this round several times to produce a training data set for each ...
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1answer
97 views

Creating a neural network that can make a decision with optional arguments

I'm a final year computer science student and for my final year project I have to design a neural network to play a little known board game called 'The Downfall of Pompeii'. I have to use ...
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22 views

What method or algorithm is used for computing Power Curve in cycling power data analysis?

Many cycling analytics apps, for example, Strava, TrainingPeaks or GoldenCheetah are offering the Power curve chart, computed from the cycling power time series data. I'm familiar with the curve ...
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1answer
34 views

The Scrabble Letter Odds Question [closed]

The Question I Have Involves the possible change in chance based on a changing sample size, if that sounds correct. The Example is, you have 100 tiles, with 5 players, each grabbing 8 tiles each. ...
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1answer
27 views

R code not working as it should? [closed]

I wanted to show computationally that if $2$ poker players are playing heads-up (1 vs. 1) and going all-in on coin flips, then a player with $X\%$ of the chips would win $X\%$ of the time. However ...
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0answers
330 views

Pooling Horse Racing Odds with a Logit Model

I am using a logit model to pool the odds from two bookies and a betting exchange. I have thousands of data points across many races, horses and race tracks and am trying to predict the probability of ...
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4answers
92 views

In a card game, how to check if hand patterns are fair?

I'm playing contract bridge and the boards are dealt by a machine. Last time, one of the player suggested the boards are not dealt at random and I want to check that. At contract bridge, each player ...
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1answer
44 views

Probability distribution for draws with conditional replacement? (or how many matches does it take to beat Yugi The Destiny?)

While trying to figure out an old video game, I seem to have stumbled upon a problem that's halfway between a binomial distribution problem and a hyper-geometric distribution problem. With the hopes ...
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0answers
52 views

In sports modelling, are hot simulations better or cold simulations?

I'm thinking here largely of the context in which someone has an Elo rating model for a particular sport. To calculate things such as how often the team makes the Finals series, or wins the ...
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0answers
198 views

Carnival Ball toss game, how often will the same spot be hit

I, unfortunately, am ignorant when it comes to statistical analysis. I do enjoy exercising my math brain with interesting questions. Here is the question that popped into my head and I don't know how ...
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2answers
3k views

If I roll a die 25 times what is the probability that the mean outcome is greater than 4?

Consider a problem: You take a fair die to a party and announce that you will roll it 25 times. You will record each outcome and at the end average the 25 outcomes together to get their arithmetical ...

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