# Questions tagged [games]

Use this tag for sports and games like video games, poker, chess, go, and others similar. Do not use it for puzzles or enigma questions (see puzzle tag).

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### Does adding Jokers into a normal 52 deck only add to the total # of possible hands, or does it also impact the existing hands' binomial coefficients?

The Jokers added to the deck in this case would be useless/junk cards, not wilds¹. My intuition is that there would be no impact to how we'd normally calculate the possible combinations/frequency for ...
68 views

### Testing how well a sequence of observed word game solutions corresponds to expected word frequencies

Say we have a word game where each round involves finding a unique 5-letter word solution. (Wordle would be an example, for those familiar). For example, we may have a round where the word "magic&...
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1 vote
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### What are the statistical fallacies of illusion of control?

Illusion of control* appears in gambling and events involving randomness. For example, choosing a lottery ticket which has an additional information that participant has a control of choosing, such as ...
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### Can you do hypothesis testing when instead of a 'sample' size you have 'actual' size? Alternatively, how would you use statistics to compare means?

From chess se: What is white's increased advantage in chess90 as compared to chess870? (Chess960 can be split into 2 subsets, chess90 and chess870) Intro: It is known in standard chess that white has ...
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### Why are rating distributions 'smoother' when there are more players?

Consider the following rating distributions by variant/time control on lichess. The bullet, blitz and rapid rating distributions look very, well, 'smooth' (or holomorphic/analytic or harmonic or ...
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### How to model risk with Neural Networks (is there a better approach)?

What should be our target if we have our features and our return is variable. Suppose we have: ...
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1 vote
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### Finding a good extrapolation methodology for Clash Royale

I have assembled a database of Clash Royale games in an attempt to understand the outcomes of various match-ups. The game is composed of an 8 card deck drawn from 102 cards. As you can see from the ...
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### Is there a method that seeks synergies among sports players?

I am going to gather data on the performance of individual lineups in NBA matches. I wanted the data to include the average statistics of the players depending on who was with him on the pitch and the ...
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### Chances of winning your money back on a double or nothing machine?

A double or nothing machine is where you place in one token, and on your next turn you either double your token or lose it with a probability of p, you can then repeat this until your final bet is 64 ...
1 vote
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### Probability of winning multi participant events

I will just start off with context about myself. I am currently studying further mathematics at A-Level and have a keen passion in statistics. I am sure most don't care about that, but just so you ...
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### Significance of walks vs. strikeouts in FIP calculation

According to Wikipedia, the baseball FIP statistic is calculated using: $$\frac{13HR + 3BB - 2SO}{IP} + C$$ Why should walks be more significant than strikeouts? If the equation were to include hits,...
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### What happens to American odds when the point spread gets further from zero? [closed]

I am learning about American odds (moneyline odds) and point spreads. In Chapter 2 of Sports Betting for Dummies, I see: When the point spread on a game gets further from zero, the two moneyline bets ...
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### Statistical test for determining advantage from win ratio in a 4 player game

I have data from 1000 games, all performed on a group of 4 players (the group and the players are constant). For each game, I have 5 possible results -> player A wins, player B wins, player C wins, ...
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### Does machine learning on random situations require a cryptographically-secure random number generator?

I'm working on a project involving using machine learning to figure out optimal strategies to play board games, and after a few rolls of the virtual dice a thought hit me: For the games that involve ...
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### What are the chances rolling 6, 6-sided dice that there will be a 6?

More generally, what is the probability that n n-sided dice will turn up at least one side with the highest number ("n")? My crude thinking is that each side has 1/6 probability, so that 6 ...
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### In Texas Holdem, what at the odds of 3 aces on the flop, then the 4th ace drawn on the first river card? [closed]

I played Texas Holdem with some friends last night. On one hand, the dealer burned a card, drew 3 aces on the flop, then burned a card and drew the 4th ace on the first river card. My question is, ...
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### De Finetti's Coherence Principle and Frequentist interpretation

So, without proof or citation, I often see that the Coherence Principle by de Finetti does not hold with Frequentist statistics. It is pretty easy to create examples of this fact. The exception ...
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### Proving Randomness in a Card Game

I recently came across a card game that is played as follows. For simplicity, assume that there are 4 players. The deck of 52 cards is split evenly between them, leaving each player with 13 cards. ...
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### Test to prove Poker deals are not random

I played on a mobile app of Texas holdem poker called pokerrrr 2. I suspect the game deals non-random hands. How can I prove the deals are not random? I prefer a test that can get an answer using ...
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### Clustering Algorithm for data where each type has multiple observations?

I am trying to segment football teams based on their playing style using multiple features. I want to see which football teams have similar playing styles using cluster algorithms. For each team I ...
1 vote
182 views

### Does the Elo K-factor affect winning probabilities?

Per the Wikipedia article on Elo ratings: The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each ...
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### How do you define the portion of a game's result that is accounted for by chance?

I'm not sure if there's an established way of defining the concept I'm describing, but every game that can be played involving a random component — dice, coins, or otherwise — has a certain amount of ...
1 vote
39 views

### How do I derive the generala formula? Does anyone know a way of thinking ot apply this to other problems? [closed]

The textbook said that it would be easy to derive the general formula. Is there a certain way of thinking that I am not seeing? I understand that the equation is doing (whole - piece) / whole. The ...
1 vote
122 views

### Poker hand: probability of a straight or a straight flush

I have seen this and this, but my setup is a little different so I'm not sure how to proceed. Setup: We are using a single standard deck of 52 cards. Suppose I have been dealt two cards, and one of ...
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### How to find the probability of winning this game?

Here's a very simple "game": Standard 52 card deck, shuffled. You deal cards face up, one at a time, while counting up towards 13, starting back at 1 once you reach 13. If the number you count out is ...
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### Leveling the field for a race competition

I'm not sure if this is really a statistics question, but I can't think of a more fitting Stack Exchange for it. My friends and I at work are having a competition to see who can decrease their one-...
592 views

### What should be statistically significant game score in football and basketball to say that one team stronger?

4 teams play 2 games: football and basketball. (2 games just to better understand theory) Final result of a football game is 2:1 Final result of basketball game is 101:96 What should be the result ...
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### Multi stage neural net

I'm going to use my specific use case here, but I'm curious about this AI structure in general. I want to create an AI to play Rocket League (a video game). For context, in Rocket League you control ...
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### Paradox game for life and death

This is probably not new to any student of statistics - yet I can't find the name of that "paradox" to search for. Imagine the richest person on earth holds a game: A participant is invited to roll ...
1 vote
55 views

### Useful measure to quantify how competitive a sports match is

I'm trying to put together a summary of data from a recreational sports league's most recent season. There are significant disparities in skill level between teams, so a large portion of the games ...
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### Where is the bomb: How to estimate the probability, given row and column totals?

This question is inspired by a mini-game from Pokemon Soulsilver: Imagine there are 15 bombs hidden on this 5x6 area (EDIT: maximum 1 bomb/cell): Now, how would you estimate the probability to find ...
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