Questions tagged [games]

Use this tag for sports and games like video games, poker, chess, go, and others similar. Do not use it for puzzles or enigma questions (see puzzle tag).

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18 views

Clustering Algorithm for data where each type has multiple observations?

I am trying to segment football teams based on their playing style using multiple features. I want to see which football teams have similar playing styles using cluster algorithms. For each team I ...
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9 views

Intuition for Glicko rating periods

From the Glicko specification: The Glicko system works best when the number of games in a rating period is moderate, say an average of 5-10 games per player in a rating period What's the ...
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1answer
15 views

Does the Elo K-factor affect winning probabilities?

Per the Wikipedia article on Elo ratings: The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each ...
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10 views

How do you define the portion of a game's result that is accounted for by chance?

I'm not sure if there's an established way of defining the concept I'm describing, but every game that can be played involving a random component — dice, coins, or otherwise — has a certain amount of ...
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33 views

Request on settling a “bar argument” about the law of large numbers

I'm currently in this argument with another person regarding whether or not it is possible to determine how much skill matters in a card game. My position is that determining this in general is ...
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1answer
31 views

How do I derive the generala formula? Does anyone know a way of thinking ot apply this to other problems? [closed]

The textbook said that it would be easy to derive the general formula. Is there a certain way of thinking that I am not seeing? I understand that the equation is doing (whole - piece) / whole. The ...
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1answer
39 views

Poker hand: probability of a straight or a straight flush

I have seen this and this, but my setup is a little different so I'm not sure how to proceed. Setup: We are using a single standard deck of 52 cards. Suppose I have been dealt two cards, and one of ...
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2answers
57 views

How to find the probability of winning this game?

Here's a very simple "game": Standard 52 card deck, shuffled. You deal cards face up, one at a time, while counting up towards 13, starting back at 1 once you reach 13. If the number you count out is ...
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15 views

Predicted Win Percentages based on Expected Scores in Game

Let's say I have a game (FTC in this case) where a 2 team alliance plays against another 2 team alliance in a match. I have each team's match history along with their OPR, which tells me how much a ...
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19 views

Leveling the field for a race competition

I'm not sure if this is really a statistics question, but I can't think of a more fitting Stack Exchange for it. My friends and I at work are having a competition to see who can decrease their one-...
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2answers
243 views

What should be statistically significant game score in football and basketball to say that one team stronger?

4 teams play 2 games: football and basketball. (2 games just to better understand theory) Final result of a football game is 2:1 Final result of basketball game is 101:96 What should be the result ...
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Example game for studying games with iterated play, imperfect information, and uncertianty

I was thinking about how to adapt techniques like those used for AlphaGo and AlphaGoZero to a game like Pokemon. In Go each player takes turns making moves (e.g. moves are not simultaneous), each ...
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1answer
30 views

Multi stage neural net

I'm going to use my specific use case here, but I'm curious about this AI structure in general. I want to create an AI to play Rocket League (a video game). For context, in Rocket League you control ...
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1answer
44 views

Paradox game for life and death

This is probably not new to any student of statistics - yet I can't find the name of that "paradox" to search for. Imagine the richest person on earth holds a game: A participant is invited to roll ...
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2answers
33 views

Useful measure to quantify how competitive a sports match is

I'm trying to put together a summary of data from a recreational sports league's most recent season. There are significant disparities in skill level between teams, so a large portion of the games ...
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21 views

Is there a rating system for game with $k > $ 2 players, 1 winner, 1 loser, and $k -$ 2 players neither winning nor losing?

Imagine a game with $k$ players such that $k > 2$. In this game, there is exactly one winner, exactly one loser, and $k - 2$ players who essentially tie as "neither winners nor losers." I have been ...
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3answers
322 views

Where is the bomb: How to estimate the probability, given row and column totals?

This question is inspired by a mini-game from Pokemon Soulsilver: Imagine there are 15 bombs hidden on this 5x6 area (EDIT: maximum 1 bomb/cell): Now, how would you estimate the probability to find ...
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33 views

How to model game theory of poker-like card game

I'd like to get a general understanding of the optimal strategy from a game called Team Fight Tactics. To reduce this problem into a simpler form I'd like to analyze a simpler card game problem I've ...
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1answer
24 views

Two different dice games. What are the odds the game will be won?

Based on the images above, is it correct that the first game should be won 1 out of six times, the second game every time, and the 3rd game 1 out of six times?
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1answer
41 views

How to calculate win probability for following game?

The game works like this, Suppose, there is a total of 900 numbers(1.00 to 9.99) from you can choose any one number to bet. Example: 1) If you choose 1.10 number and place a bet of 100$ on it. If ...
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22 views

flipping card with increasing probability

In an online game you can buy cards which has a 5% probability to be rare cards. If you don't have the rare card for more than 20 times, the chance of next purchase will increase by 5%, repeat until ...
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1answer
102 views

Reward attribution in deep q learning and texas holdem poker

I’m having issues with reward attribution in poker using deep q learning. Multiple actions will yield one reward, but the reward is only known at the end of the hand, not before. I have built a gym ...
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1answer
17 views

How to encode categorical variables in a video game predictive model

I'd like to make a model to predict the result of a match in a video game (win or loss). The game is 3 players against 3 players, and each player has a specific character with specific ...
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1answer
225 views

Are neural networks the wrong tool to solve this 2D platformer/shooter game? Is there a proven way to frame this problem to a neural network?

I had an attempt at training a convolutional LSTM network to imitate a player of the 2D platformer/shooter Teeworlds. This is an example of the data and labels I fed to the network: https://www....
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31 views

Computing the probability of winning the grand prize in a hypothetical game

I'm a beginner to probability so please be a bit gentle on me. I have trouble finding the correct approach / search terms to find related problems. I face the following problem. In a hypothetical ...
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1answer
45 views

Crew selection: ranking rowers by letting them race against each other

Seat selection is a common practice in competitive rowing and I would be curious about more solid statistical underpinnings: there are more rowers in a team than the 8 seats in the crew boat. So the ...
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22 views

Neural Network and equally good predictions

There is a two-player game (discrete, deterministic, perfect information and so on) where - in some but not all states - a few moves may be equally good; i.e. they are symmetric and expert player will ...
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28 views

Input/ouput design for deep reinforcement learning for imperfect information game

I'm working on a bot that plays an imperfect information game similar to chess, where each move you are effectively moving a piece from one location to another. I'm trying to decide what the best way ...
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28 views

Optimum betting strategy guaranteeing rate of return

A man likes to bet on football matches. He wants to systematise his betting so that he can sleep better at night. His ratio of correct bets to all bets he has made is $r$. He wants to develop a system ...
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4 views

Are there any exisitng scales (e.g. in a paper) for measuring perception of a short team task (or general tasks) in a questionnaire?

The task in concern is a one-time 10-20 second game to be played as a team. Scale can be Likert scale or metric scale (if possible). Perception is e.g. whether the game is boring/interesting, ...
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43 views

Target for a Poker game Neural Network

I've created a python simulation of a texas holdem poker game with 3 random actions, check/fold, check/call and bet. I have then looped this round several times to produce a training data set for each ...
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1answer
57 views

Creating a neural network that can make a decision with optional arguments

I'm a final year computer science student and for my final year project I have to design a neural network to play a little known board game called 'The Downfall of Pompeii'. I have to use ...
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20 views

What method or algorithm is used for computing Power Curve in cycling power data analysis?

Many cycling analytics apps, for example, Strava, TrainingPeaks or GoldenCheetah are offering the Power curve chart, computed from the cycling power time series data. I'm familiar with the curve ...
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1answer
20 views

The Scrabble Letter Odds Question [closed]

The Question I Have Involves the possible change in chance based on a changing sample size, if that sounds correct. The Example is, you have 100 tiles, with 5 players, each grabbing 8 tiles each. ...
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1answer
27 views

R code not working as it should? [closed]

I wanted to show computationally that if $2$ poker players are playing heads-up (1 vs. 1) and going all-in on coin flips, then a player with $X\%$ of the chips would win $X\%$ of the time. However ...
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186 views

Pooling Horse Racing Odds with a Logit Model

I am using a logit model to pool the odds from two bookies and a betting exchange. I have thousands of data points across many races, horses and race tracks and am trying to predict the probability of ...
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4answers
79 views

In a card game, how to check if hand patterns are fair?

I'm playing contract bridge and the boards are dealt by a machine. Last time, one of the player suggested the boards are not dealt at random and I want to check that. At contract bridge, each player ...
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1answer
38 views

Probability distribution for draws with conditional replacement? (or how many matches does it take to beat Yugi The Destiny?)

While trying to figure out an old video game, I seem to have stumbled upon a problem that's halfway between a binomial distribution problem and a hyper-geometric distribution problem. With the hopes ...
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44 views

In sports modelling, are hot simulations better or cold simulations?

I'm thinking here largely of the context in which someone has an Elo rating model for a particular sport. To calculate things such as how often the team makes the Finals series, or wins the ...
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140 views

Carnival Ball toss game, how often will the same spot be hit

I, unfortunately, am ignorant when it comes to statistical analysis. I do enjoy exercising my math brain with interesting questions. Here is the question that popped into my head and I don't know how ...
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2answers
2k views

If I roll a die 25 times what is the probability that the mean outcome is greater than 4?

Consider a problem: You take a fair die to a party and announce that you will roll it 25 times. You will record each outcome and at the end average the 25 outcomes together to get their ...
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0answers
79 views

Relationship between Total Over/Under scores and actual total scores in sports

I have a data set of actual scores from sporting games, matched with the bookmaker's Total Over/Under Score (O/U Score) and the odds the bookmaker was offering that the game's total score would fall ...
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2answers
196 views

Principled understanding of why AlphaZero's algorithm works?

Roughly, AlphaGo/AlphaGo Zero 's algorithm is as follows: Using a policy network, generate a distribution of move probabilities (intuitively, capturing how good those moves are based on a first-...
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1answer
58 views

Bridge Hand Probabilities

Each of the 4 players in the game of bridge get dealt 13 cards. One player and his partner can see they hold 8 of the heart cards so they know that the 2 remaining hands they can't see hold the ...
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1answer
51 views

Calculate advantage of Serves in Table Tennis

In table tennis there's an ongoing controversy about "illegal" serves. Often the question arises how strong the influence of serves on winning probability is. I stumbled upon a recent paper, but I ...
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1answer
52 views

working on a derivation of 7 card poker where I allow 7 and 6 card hands

I'm doing the probability calculations having some trouble. Example 7 card flush 4*(C(13,7)-217) 6 card flush 4*(C(13,6)-71)*39 I am pretty sure these are correct I am having trouble with the 7 ...
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63 views

Incomplete Plinko board, What is it the correct probability?

Suppose I have an Plinko board, there are 2 pegs missing (2,1) and (1,1) supposing we are counting ...
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2answers
302 views

Suitable project for reinforcement learning [closed]

To get more insight in reinforcement learning I'm looking for a project for. I thought about the game connect four. Doing some research about existing works with RL and connect four I found out that ...
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0answers
24 views

References for Texas Holdem

Does anybody know any good papers or software that use Monte Carlo techniques to estimate the probability of certain hands or winning/losing a hand in Texas Holdem? Ideally I'd like to have some ...
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1answer
268 views

Spades - Probability for a “sure lose” blind Nil hand?

Spades is a trick-taking card game. The object is to take at least the number of tricks (also known as "books") that were bid before play of the hand began. Spades is a descendant of the Whist family ...

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