Questions tagged [games]
Use this tag for sports and games like video games, poker, chess, go, and others similar. Do not use it for puzzles or enigma questions (see puzzle tag).
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Is it reasonable to use Chi Square data in a bivariate analysis?
I am currently working on a report about the frequency of hand types in Texas Hold'em and whether or not the frequencies change when there are multiple players involved. For example, is there a change ...
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Probability of rolling any number 10 times at any given point in the sequence [duplicate]
Imagine a race, where each runner has a number, the race track is 100 meters, and each time you roll a fair 6-sided die, the corresponding runner moves 10 meters. I would like to calculate the ...
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Getting a Many to One LSTM/MLP to overfit
I have a dataset of 20 thousand horses. For each horse, I have its 10 last historical races (finishing time, position, track name, distance etc. for 41 features) and am trying to predict its finishing ...
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"Last Out" Raffle Probabilities/Stats
I'm part of an online community that raffles away prizes, typically with 30 or 40 spots in a raffle. The numbered chips/balls are placed into some type of hopper, and pulled out one at a time (random/...
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In games (e.g. poker) where luck/chance is a factor, should the more skilled player play more games with a lower stake?
I'm not sure if this is the right site for my question. In games (e.g. poker) where luck/chance is a factor, should the more skilled player play more games with a lower stake? Intuitively, yes, if you ...
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Drawing the correct card from a deck
Saw this on an old western show.
A poker player believes the dealer is switching decks of cards.
The player has 5 cards in his hand and at the end of a hand, he smudges all of them with cigar ashes. ...
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Significance test for trend in time series with multiple sets of observations
Tomorrow there will be a race in which six runners participate in the 100 m dash. I will be able to capture the speed of each runner at each meter, so for each runner there will be a time series with ...
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Significance of outliers with multiple weighted coins
tl;dr: I have N weighted coins, each of which has been flipped some number of times (n_i), and for which I've measured the ...
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How to calculate the increased likelihood of drawing a type of item from a supply of mixed item types after adding more of a specific items type?
There is a board game, The Castles of Burgundy, which has a supply of 40 "black market" tiles, of which 16 are beige, 8 green, 2 gray, 6 blue, 6 yellow, and 2 burgundy.
The game takes place ...
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Bayesian estimation for a ranking outcome variable
I'm interested in modeling how a ranking depends on a continuous feature. I have many related groups of these rankings, so I want to use partial pooling with the usual Bayesian machinery, but I'm ...
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Fundamental theorem of card counting: exchangeability and conditional distributions
I have some elementary queries about the relationship between exchangeability and conditional distributions.
For theorem 11.6.4 in the Doctrine of Chances, Ethier S. (2010) it is proved that $\{Z_n\}_{...
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How do payouts for bets change as the odds change?
Say that there's a horse race between the two horses Alice and Bob. People bet on which horse will win. The "house" is taking no money off the top, so basically it's a direct transfer where ...
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Players take turns to draw cards until the winner gets the first King, does it help to go first?
This question arose in a true Argentine card game called truco. Sometimes we need to choose who will play because we are too much people, so we deal cards and the first to get the king, out of 4 ...
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Who first described a statistical estimate as an approximation of a population parameter?
At some point in the history of statistics, there surely was a transition from thinking of statistical measures strictly as imperfect approximations of real quantities, to thinking of them as ...
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Comparing the means of two groups with different sizes
I am doing an statistical study over ultra-marathon runners (100 km distance) where I have a large number of data points (race records) corresponding to the average race speed of different runners ...
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A multidimensional ELO rating with rock paper scissors playing styles: how to estimate
Consider the following latent variable model for a potential Elo rating with additional player type.
Each player has a performance level $r$ and a playing type $\theta$. Assume that a game between two ...
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Predict game outcome from partial and varying-length sequence of game moves
Overview
I've got a hobby project analysing data from an online Real Time Strategy game called FAF. I've built a toolkit to scrape game data and created a few datasets using the toolkit. I've done ...
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Given a set of random variables, how can I find a linear combination of these variables satisfying a constraint on the sum of their permuations?
Say I have n random variables, {X0...Xn}, n>9. I also have another set of random variables constructed from the first set, where each of these are the sum of 9 ...
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Red and Green Ball Games
Suppose we have a bag which has 1 red ball and N green balls. We randomly draw a ball from the bag: if this is red, we do not put it back and take one green ball from the bag and discard it too; if ...
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Can I use polling techniques in card games?
In a 50 card deck where 4 copies of a card are allowed at maximum,there are around 2 million possible starting hands.
My question is: If I take a random sample of the 300-350 and analyze it. Can I ...
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Min number of players in multiplayer game
Suppose in a multiplayer game, we have a match being played for which we need X players, when the number of players is less than ...
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How many rounds to visit every place on a Monopoly style game board
I see some kids playing on a circular gameboard trying to visit every field and I wonder how long it will take before they finish.
I can simulate it like below, but is there possibly an elegant ...
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Alternatives to percentage change?
You can have the same mean but different standard deviation. Or the same standard deviation but a different coefficient of variation or 1 over signal-to-noise ratio or whatever. (I think that's the ...
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Novice question about Averages - Sports Analytics
I came across a post by the SEC showcasing teams’ home record during the past 5 seasons.
Although Alabama ranks first for having the most won games at home, I questioned the fairness of the average ...
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Positive expected value for lottery
As far as I know, to decide either you should enter a bet or not, you should get the expected value of that bet
I was wondering if the lottery has a very high expected value, is it wise to join?
There ...
Mina Nessim
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Probability of future independent events given past and expected distribution with board games
This question is specifically in reference to how statistics apply to Catan.
For background, two fair dice are rolled and rolling a 7 is a bad event.
Given that the average number of turns for a game ...
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285
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Assess team win rate by combining individual win rates?
Suppose I have 5 players on each team in a game where each player selects a character (League of legends, Valorant, etc.).
I am considering the overall win rates of the characters, and the unique win ...
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Does adding Jokers into a normal 52 deck only add to the total # of possible hands, or does it also impact the existing hands' binomial coefficients?
The Jokers added to the deck in this case would be useless/junk cards, not wilds¹.
My intuition is that there would be no impact to how we'd normally calculate the possible combinations/frequency for ...
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Testing how well a sequence of observed word game solutions corresponds to expected word frequencies
Say we have a word game where each round involves finding a unique 5-letter word solution. (Wordle would be an example, for those familiar). For example, we may have a round where the word "magic&...
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What are the statistical fallacies of illusion of control?
Illusion of control* appears in gambling and events involving randomness. For example, choosing a lottery ticket which has an additional information that participant has a control of choosing, such as ...
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Can you do hypothesis testing when instead of a 'sample' size you have 'actual' size? Alternatively, how would you use statistics to compare means?
From chess se: What is white's increased advantage in chess90 as compared to chess870? (Chess960 can be split into 2 subsets, chess90 and chess870)
Intro:
It is known in standard chess that white has ...
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Why are rating distributions 'smoother' when there are more players?
Consider the following rating distributions by variant/time control on lichess.
The bullet, blitz and rapid rating distributions look very, well, 'smooth' (or holomorphic/analytic or harmonic or ...
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How to model risk with Neural Networks (is there a better approach)?
What should be our target if we have our features and our return is variable. Suppose we have:
...
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Confused about geometric distribution [duplicate]
So I have a game that follows a geometric distribution.
There is a probability, $p$, of winning a round. If the player wins, he earns \$1,000. As soon as there is a win, the game ends.
If the player ...
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Three Envelopes Problem
In a game we have 3 envelopes, A, B, C, with a random number (from 1 to 100) sealed inside each. Nobody knows what number is inside. We win the game if we find the highest number, using only one of 2 ...
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D&D - Confidence Interval for enemy armor class
In dungeons and dragons, characters and monsters have two properties called Attack Bonus($AB \, \in \, \mathbb{Z}$) and Armor Class($AC \, \in \, \mathbb{N}$). Let $AB_c$ be the character attack bonus ...
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Probability of defeating a dragon in one turn rolling a 20 sided die
In math class we were asked an optional problem I can't solve on my own:
You are fighting a dragon with 250 hit points and are rolling a 20 sided die to deal damage. The dragon takes damage equal to ...
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What subjects in statistics should I focus on to determine the optimal time to to quit a game of chance while I'm ahead?
I am trying to answer the question:
Given a game of chance with a "house edge" E (defined below), what is the maximum "amount ahead" ...
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Probablity of winning a Jumping game
I am playing a game at the moment. I won't mention it but the aim is to make around 150 perfect jumps in a row to get through a level.
You can "practice" It lets you play through the level ...
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Predicting outcomes of chess games based on engine evaluation of current position
I wish to train a classifier for chess games. For any given chess position, you can use one or more chess engines to give the position a numeric score (evaluation). A score less than 0 indicates that ...
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How can a statistician who has the data for a non-normal distribution guess better than one who only has the mean?
Let's say we have a game with two players. Both of them know that five samples are drawn from some distribution (not normal). None of them know the parameters of the distribution used to generate the ...
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Expected Value of a Fundraiser Raffle Ticket with Three Prizes
The raffle ticket above represents a local fundraiser. The first prize is a smart TV valued at 1200 dollars, the second prize is a cooler valued at 200 dollars, and the third prize is a 100 dollar ...
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Does Sampling with or without Replacement Have the Advantage?
You're playing a game where one person chooses coins and the other chooses cards. One flips a coin at the same time the other draws a card. The game stops once either the coins-player has got 4 in a ...
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Probability of winning a game for toddlers
Recently, my son got a game called Little Cooperation. The rules (see here) are very simple:
We have 4 animals that need to travel from an ice flow to a safe igloo. Between a flow and an igloo there ...
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Uses of MCMC samplers outside of Bayesian Inference? [duplicate]
I'm curious if there are applications of MCMC outside of Bayesian Inference?
this conversation started when discussing Monte Carlo methods vs Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods with a coworker. He asked ...
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Analyzing lie in a cardgame
We are playing a card game in which cards can be of three categories — good, bad, neutral.
A player draws a variable number of cards $n$ and then states the composition of his cards. The player does ...
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How can I include head-to-head data in a Regression? [closed]
I'd like to model Tennis results in a logit regression. How can I include head-to-head data?
Simply taking the share of won matches between two players isn't ideal, because it doesn't take the number ...
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Distribution of players in a computer game on different "levels"
Many computer games have different levels. Here is a description about levels on wikipedia, but I will explain more precisely what I mean below.
The idea is this: to optimize the experience with a ...
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Rejecting hypothesis after performing a logistic regression
I was analyzing a dataset that consists of 20000 chess matches. My hypothesis was that when ratings of players increase, the probability for white to win also increases. I was thinking of performing a ...
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How to decide what is a "good move" or a "bad move" with supervised learning on a game?
Let's take an example game, like connect $4$, which is nice and simple. I know minimax is a super easy algorithm to program here, but let's say instead I wanted to create a Machine Learning model for ...
