Questions tagged [games]

Use this tag for sports and games like video games, poker, chess, go, and others similar. Do not use it for puzzles or enigma questions (see puzzle tag).

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Can you do hypothesis testing when instead of a 'sample' size you have 'actual' size? Alternatively, how would you use statistics to compare means?

From chess se: What is white's increased advantage in chess90 as compared to chess870? (Chess960 can be split into 2 subsets, chess90 and chess870) Intro: It is known in standard chess that white has ...
210 views

Why are rating distributions 'smoother' when there are more players?

Consider the following rating distributions by variant/time control on lichess. The bullet, blitz and rapid rating distributions look very, well, 'smooth' (or holomorphic/analytic or harmonic or ...
27 views

How to model risk with Neural Networks (is there a better approach)?

What should be our target if we have our features and our return is variable. Suppose we have: ...
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How to decide what is a "good move" or a "bad move" with supervised learning on a game?

Let's take an example game, like connect $4$, which is nice and simple. I know minimax is a super easy algorithm to program here, but let's say instead I wanted to create a Machine Learning model for ...
54 views

Finding a good extrapolation methodology for Clash Royale

I have assembled a database of Clash Royale games in an attempt to understand the outcomes of various match-ups. The game is composed of an 8 card deck drawn from 102 cards. As you can see from the ...
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Is there a method that seeks synergies among sports players?

I am going to gather data on the performance of individual lineups in NBA matches. I wanted the data to include the average statistics of the players depending on who was with him on the pitch and the ...
29 views

Chances of winning your money back on a double or nothing machine?

A double or nothing machine is where you place in one token, and on your next turn you either double your token or lose it with a probability of p, you can then repeat this until your final bet is 64 ...
62 views

Probability of winning multi participant events

I will just start off with context about myself. I am currently studying further mathematics at A-Level and have a keen passion in statistics. I am sure most don't care about that, but just so you ...
117 views

Significance of walks vs. strikeouts in FIP calculation

According to Wikipedia, the baseball FIP statistic is calculated using: $$\frac{13HR + 3BB - 2SO}{IP} + C$$ Why should walks be more significant than strikeouts? If the equation were to include hits,...
86 views

What happens to American odds when the point spread gets further from zero? [closed]

I am learning about American odds (moneyline odds) and point spreads. In Chapter 2 of Sports Betting for Dummies, I see: When the point spread on a game gets further from zero, the two moneyline bets ...
135 views

Statistical test for determining advantage from win ratio in a 4 player game

I have data from 1000 games, all performed on a group of 4 players (the group and the players are constant). For each game, I have 5 possible results -> player A wins, player B wins, player C wins, ...
204 views

Does machine learning on random situations require a cryptographically-secure random number generator?

I'm working on a project involving using machine learning to figure out optimal strategies to play board games, and after a few rolls of the virtual dice a thought hit me: For the games that involve ...
4k views

What are the chances rolling 6, 6-sided dice that there will be a 6?

More generally, what is the probability that n n-sided dice will turn up at least one side with the highest number ("n")? My crude thinking is that each side has 1/6 probability, so that 6 ...
716 views

In Texas Holdem, what at the odds of 3 aces on the flop, then the 4th ace drawn on the first river card? [closed]

I played Texas Holdem with some friends last night. On one hand, the dealer burned a card, drew 3 aces on the flop, then burned a card and drew the 4th ace on the first river card. My question is, ...
146 views

De Finetti's Coherence Principle and Frequentist interpretation

So, without proof or citation, I often see that the Coherence Principle by de Finetti does not hold with Frequentist statistics. It is pretty easy to create examples of this fact. The exception ...
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Proving Randomness in a Card Game

I recently came across a card game that is played as follows. For simplicity, assume that there are 4 players. The deck of 52 cards is split evenly between them, leaving each player with 13 cards. ...
4k views

Test to prove Poker deals are not random

I played on a mobile app of Texas holdem poker called pokerrrr 2. I suspect the game deals non-random hands. How can I prove the deals are not random? I prefer a test that can get an answer using ...
86 views

Clustering Algorithm for data where each type has multiple observations?

I am trying to segment football teams based on their playing style using multiple features. I want to see which football teams have similar playing styles using cluster algorithms. For each team I ...
164 views

Does the Elo K-factor affect winning probabilities?

Per the Wikipedia article on Elo ratings: The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each ...
11 views

How do you define the portion of a game's result that is accounted for by chance?

I'm not sure if there's an established way of defining the concept I'm describing, but every game that can be played involving a random component — dice, coins, or otherwise — has a certain amount of ...
37 views

How do I derive the generala formula? Does anyone know a way of thinking ot apply this to other problems? [closed]

The textbook said that it would be easy to derive the general formula. Is there a certain way of thinking that I am not seeing? I understand that the equation is doing (whole - piece) / whole. The ...
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Poker hand: probability of a straight or a straight flush

I have seen this and this, but my setup is a little different so I'm not sure how to proceed. Setup: We are using a single standard deck of 52 cards. Suppose I have been dealt two cards, and one of ...
73 views

How to find the probability of winning this game?

Here's a very simple "game": Standard 52 card deck, shuffled. You deal cards face up, one at a time, while counting up towards 13, starting back at 1 once you reach 13. If the number you count out is ...
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Leveling the field for a race competition

I'm not sure if this is really a statistics question, but I can't think of a more fitting Stack Exchange for it. My friends and I at work are having a competition to see who can decrease their one-...
534 views

What should be statistically significant game score in football and basketball to say that one team stronger?

4 teams play 2 games: football and basketball. (2 games just to better understand theory) Final result of a football game is 2:1 Final result of basketball game is 101:96 What should be the result ...
138 views

Multi stage neural net

I'm going to use my specific use case here, but I'm curious about this AI structure in general. I want to create an AI to play Rocket League (a video game). For context, in Rocket League you control ...