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Questions tagged [hierarchical-bayesian]

Hierarchical Bayesian models specify priors on parameters and hyperpriors on the parameters of the prior distributions

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22k views

XKCD's modified Bayes theorem: actually kinda reasonable?

I know this is from a comic famous for taking advantage of certain analytical tendencies, but it actually looks kind of reasonable after a few minutes of staring. Can anyone outline for me what this "...
11k views

What's the difference between “deep learning” and multilevel/hierarchical modeling?

Is "deep learning" just another term for multilevel/hierarchical modeling? I'm much more familiar with the latter than the former, but from what I can tell, the primary difference is not in their ...
1k views

What is the problem with empirical priors?

In literature I sometimes stumple upon the remark, that choosing priors that depend on the data itself (for example Zellners g-prior) can be criticized from a theoretical point of view. Where exactly ...
194 views

In Gelman's 8 school example, why is the standard error of the individual estimate assumed known?

Context: In Gelman's 8-school example (Bayesian Data Analysis, 3rd edition, Ch 5.5) there are eight parallel experiments in 8 schools testing the effect of coaching. Each experiment yields an ...
2k views

Bayesian estimation of $N$ of a binomial distribution

This question is a technical follow-up of this question. I have trouble understanding and replicating the model presented in Raftery (1988): Inference for the binomial $N$ parameter: a hierarchical ...
5k views

What prior distributions could/should be used for the variance in a hierarchical bayesisan model when the mean variance is of interest?

In his widely cited paper Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models (916 citation so far on Google Scholar) Gelman proposes that good non-informative prior distributions for ...
505 views

Why does adding a lag effect increase mean deviance in a Bayesian hierarchical model?

Background: I'm currently doing some work comparing various Bayesian hierarchical models. The data $y_{ij}$ are numeric measures of well-being for participant $i$ and time $j$. I have around 1000 ...
1k views

What are the parameters of a Wishart-Wishart posterior?

When infering the precision matrix $\boldsymbol{\Lambda}$ of a normal distribution used to generate $N$ D-dimensional vectors $\mathbf{x_1},..,\mathbf{x_N}$ \begin{align} \mathbf{x_i} &\sim \...
307 views

Why does the redundant mean parameterization speed up Gibbs MCMC?

In Gelman & Hill (2007)'s book (Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models), the authors claim that including redundant mean parameters can help speed up MCMC. The given ...
2k views

What precisely does it mean to borrow information?

I often people them talk about information borrowing or information sharing in Bayesian hierarchical models. I can't seem to get a straight answer about what this actually means and if it is unique to ...
858 views

Why does Restricted maximum likelihood yield a better (unbiased) estimate of the variance?

I'm reading Doug Bates' theory paper on R's lme4 package to better understand the nitty-gritty of mixed models, and came across an intriguing result that I'd like to understand better, about using ...
3k views

Hyperprior density for hierarchical Gamma-Poisson model

In a hierarchical model of data $y$ where $$y \sim \textrm{Poisson}(\lambda)$$ $$\lambda \sim \textrm{Gamma}(\alpha, \beta)$$ it appears to be typical in practice to chose values ($\alpha, \beta)$ ...
4k views

Multinomial-Dirichlet model with hyperprior distribution on the concentration parameters

I will try to describe the problem at hand as general as possible. I am modeling observations as a categorical distribution with a parameter probability vector theta. Then, I assume the parameter ...
824 views

What is a good analogy to illustrate the strengths of Hierarchical Bayesian Models?

I'm relatively new to bayesian statistics and have been using JAGS recently to build hierarchical bayesian models on different datasets. While I'm very satisfied of the results (compared to standard ...
1k views

Hierarchical models for multiple comparisons - multiple outcomes context

I've just been (re-)reading Gelman's Why we (usually) don't have to worry about multiple comparisons. In particular the section "Multiple outcomes and other challenges" mentions using a hierarchical ...
1k views

Hyperprior Noninformative Beta Binomial Model [closed]

I've been working through Gelman's Bayesian Data Analysis 3 text and have been trying to understand one of the hierarchical models revolving around rat tumors (Chapter 5). He uses a binomial model ...
283 views

313 views

How can we convert values proportional to probabilities to Bernoulli probabilities?

According to Wikipedia, the parameter in a Bernoulli distribution should be $0<p<1$. I am reading this famous paper proposing Hierarchical Dirichlet Process, and on page 1580, A.6 and the ...
80 views

Power of Uniform Distribution?

In the Bayesian analysis, $\mathtt{rjags}$ in particular, it is very frequent to see the code: sigma ~ dunif(0, 100) sigma.1 <- pow(sigma, -2) But, what does ...
834 views

Crossvalidation in hierarchical bayesian models (HBMs)

I am trying to find a way to cross-validate Hierarchical Bayesian Models used for predicting and modelling abundance in Species Distribution Models. For this purpose, I have tried posterior predictive ...
151 views

Are predictive distributions supposed to be distributions of future data?

In frequentist analysis, we define a 95% prediction interval as an interval that will contain the next observation 95% of the time under repeated sampling of the entire experiment and prediction. If ...
1k views

Seeking a closed form for a posterior distribution

In the book Bayesian Data Analysis by Gelman et al. (3rd edition, 2014), a hierarchical model (or one-way random-effects ANOVA) is presented in section 5.4 as follows, \begin{equation}\label{eq:...
Say I have two coins from a particular mint in the US. I flip coin one 20 times and receive 4 heads, giving me a beta distribution for the bias of coin one of $Beta$($\alpha$=5, $\beta$=17). I then ...