# Questions tagged [inference]

Drawing conclusions about population parameters from sample data. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inference and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_inference

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### which statistical test should be used for testing the significance of the mean differences in time series data?

I was looking to investigate if the monthly total return of US Treasury bond index depends on the magnitude of the US inflation readings. So i downloaded the US CPI YOY monthly data for the last 50 ...
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### Inference vs prediction terminology

The terminology "inference" and "prediction" seems to have different usage across numerous sources and at my current work. In some places, it seems "inference" refers to ...
1 vote
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### Overlapping confidence intervals of two proportions

According to to G. Cumming and S. Finch in their paper "Inference by Eye" the 95% confidence intervals of two independent means can overlap and the difference between the two means can still ...
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### so the question is about calculating MAP and PPD. I know the formulas for both, but find it confusing, so can someone explain step by step? [closed]

Now suppose that you run each model, and they make the following predictions: p(yt+1 | yt, θ1) = .4 p(yt+1 | yt, θ2) = .75 p(yt+1 | yt, θ3) = .6. What is the maximum a posterior estimate p(yt+1 | yt,...
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### Testing change in ratios

I do not know how to perform this statistical test. I have a proportion of a bodily liquid substance, and I am interested in the ratio with respect to another. For instance, ratio of water (20l) and ...
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### Why do we need a consistency assumption in causal inference?

Why do we need a consistency assumption in causal inference? I think the consistency assumption is quite obvious and it is more like a definition for the observed outcome.
1 vote
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### Causal inference on time-series data: is intervention needed?

I'm working on the topic of causal inference, I use time-series data. I have two scenarios in front of me and I don't understand the difference: Given X and Y "time" features. I would like ...
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### Statistical Integration of Bayesian and Frequentist Approaches: Weighing Methodology

I'm uncertain about where to post this question. I'm currently working with geotechnical data (soil parameters) and aiming to obtain realistic and safer parameter values. To achieve this goal, I've ...
36 views

### Identify outliers in testing data based on trained Gaussian mixture model

I use Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to infer probability density of multidimensional data written as: $p(x) = \sum_{j=1}^{K}\pi_j*N(x|\bf \mu_j, \Sigma_j)$, where $K$ is a number of mixtures, $\pi_j$ ...
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### What type of rotational invariance information can I get from interest points (coordinates) of corners from an image?

Assume that you are using the FAST algoritm for corner/feature detection. You pick an image and run the FAST algorithm. Question: All these green dots are actully coordinates in x and y direction. ...
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### Good training/test results, but very poor performance in inference as the stream data is coming

I am interested in the audio classification problem. After labeling the audio recordings I have in Praat software environment, I extract the MFCC features from each labeled frame and create an SVM ...
179 views

### Regression coefficient before vs. after demeaning X

It is well known that $\beta = (X^{T}X)^{-1}X^{T}Y$ for linear regression. While experimenting with this, I found that $\beta$ (excluding the intercept term) remained the same before and after ...
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### How do I determine sample size when the conversion rate for the null hypothesis is not deterministic?

I use a ML model to rank prospects in terms of purchase probability to send marketing emails on a monthly basis. Most of the people in the population (for example, the entire U.S population) would not ...
1 vote
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### Unsure whether to use bootstrap or not

I've only recently came across the bootstrap procedure and I'm not entirely well versed in statistics so apologies if I'm completely wrong here. I'm looking at the average temperatures across a month ...
63 views

### Are regression CIs valid when the outcome is an ML prediction?

If we use classification labels from a machine learning model in a linear regression, and treat those labels as the ground truth, will the resulting confidence intervals be valid? Imagine we have $n$ ...
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### Determine "best" winrate between data with different sample sizes

Setup I've a collection of winrates where each winrate represents a particular combination of "power ups" a player can select for a character they play in a game. The numerator represents ...
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### Coefficients of log-transformed outcome

I would like to know what is the appropriate word for regression coefficients of log-transformed outcome(y) after taking the anti-log of regression coefficients. It is not an odds ratio or risk ratio. ...
57 views

### Checking for association between two multi level categorical variables

As part of a personal journey to learn inferential statistics, I am trying to understand if and how income levels influence political views, using data from the general Social Survey (GSS) found here ...
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1 vote
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### Two sample proportions: How to test the hypothesis that the difference in proportions is less than a specified threshold?

Say I have treatment and control, perfectly randomized. I have 70000 conversions for treatment in 80000 users. I have 70100 converions for control in 800100 users. My null hypothesis is that there is ...
1 vote
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### How can I calculate response rate when I don't know how many people saw the item in the first place?

I have a count of how many people responded to an ad, but I don't have an official count of how many people saw the ad in the first place. I do have an estimate of how many people saw the ad though ...
1 vote
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### Calculate posterior distribution and full conditional of a HMM

Set up a Bayesian analysis of an hidden Markov model and calculate the posterior distribution and the full conditionals, given this assumptions: The state space of the hidden process has size m \$Z_t|...
1 vote
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### If we know the exact value of the population parameter , is there any point in doing the hypothesis testing? [duplicate]

Question - In a year there are 956 births in a town A of which 52.5% were males, while in town A and B combined, this proportion in a total of 1406 births was 0.496. Is there any significant ...
1 vote