Questions tagged [inference]

Drawing conclusions about population parameters from sample data. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inference and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_inference

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MRF MAP inference for non-submodular pairwise terms

I have a multilabel MRF MAP inference problem (a labeling problem). The graph has relatively few nodes, about a thousand or so. The pairwise term is (very) not submodular (it does not satisfy the ...
149 views

Fiducial Inference in Machine Learning

I was looking at the Fiducial Inference page on wikipedia, which is an alternative to the traditional Frequentist and Bayesian standpoints. Although it was out of favour in mainstream statistics for ...
435 views

When will a less true model predict better than a truer model?

In "To Explain or to Predict?", Pr. Galit Shmueli said that sometimes a less true model can predict better than a truer model. Why is it so? When will it happen? How does it happen? Is explanation a ...
936 views

Difference between likelihood principle and repeated sampling principle

In statistical inference, there are many fundamental statistical principles, such as likelihood principle and repeated sampling principle. I am wondering whether there are any other principles? And ...
151 views

Estimating an unknown restricted Markov Chain from partial measurements

There is an Markov chain $M$ defined on states $1, ..., N$ with the special property that it only has transitions $p_i$ from $i$ to $i + 1$ , $q_{i + 1}$ from $i + 1$ to $i$, and $r_i = 1 - p_i - q_i$ ...
788 views

198 views

Resampling within a survey to account for missing data

Suppose I have survey responses that look like this: ...
142 views

Inference and noninference parts of statistical theory [closed]

I was wondering from the view of dividing the topics of statistical theory into inference part and non-inference part, what inference topics and non-inference topics statistical theory is covering? ...
214 views

Inference with Gaussian Random Variable

Let $X = N(0,\frac{1}{\alpha})$, $Y = 2X + 8 + N_{y}$, and $N_{y}$ be a noise $N_{y} = N(0,1)$. Then, $P(y|x) = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}exp\{ -\frac{1}{2}(y - 2x - 8)^{2} \}$ and \$P(x) = \sqrt{\frac{\...
148 views

Can I insert an observation (evidence) to a Winbugs model?

Greetings, Is it possible to use evidence in a Winbug model? For example, a random variable in a model has been observed, and I'd like to update the other variables in the model, pretty much the same ...
865 views

Accommodating entrenched views of p-values

Sometimes in reports I include a disclaimer about the p-values and other inferential statistics I've provided. I say that since the sample wasn't random, then such statistics would not strictly apply....
899 views

Do likelihood ratios and Bayesian model comparison provide superior & sufficient alternatives to null-hypothesis testing?

In response to a growing body of statisticians and researchers that criticize the utility of null-hypothesis testing (NHT) for science as a cumulative endeavour, the American Psychological Association ...
642 views

War stories where wrong decisions were made based on statistical information?

I think it is fair to say statistics is an applied science so when averages and standard deviations are calculated it is because someone is looking to make some decisions based on those numbers. ...
416 views

Why does continuous Bayesian analysis seem to give this contradictory result?

Let's say you have a process that generates data according to r = sin(t) + epsilon, where epsilon ~ N(0,V) is Gaussian noise. The unconditional variance of r is 0.5 + V. Let's say we're forecasting ...
4k views

Comparison between MaxEnt, ML, Bayes and other kind of statistical inference methods

I'm in no way a statistician (I've had a course in mathematical statistics but nothing more than that), and recently, while studying information theory and statistical mechanics, I met this thing ...
3k views

Online resources for learning statistics, exercises (with solutions)?

I'm currently working as a teaching assistant at my university, in an introductory statistics course (for medical students). Offline, there are many books available with information to aid the ...
2k views

Comparison of two values in a statistically sound manner

For a university paper, I have to compare whether two program versions are statistically significantly different. The comparison in terms of runtime performance is straightforward -- I determine ...
8k views

Intractable posterior distributions

In Bayesian statistics, it is often mentioned that the posterior distribution is intractable and thus approximate inference must be applied. What are the factors that cause this intractability?
920 views

How much can the “pyramid of evidence” be applied to economics and political sciences?

When trying to assess a validity of a claim relying on statistics, I was taught (in the school of epidemiology) that the scale to use is “the pyramid of evidence“ However, when conducting a ...