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Questions tagged [jags]

"JAGS is Just Another Gibbs Sampler. It is a program for analysis of Bayesian hierarchical models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation not wholly unlike BUGS." (http://mcmc-jags.sourceforge.net/)

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169 views

number of stochastic nodes in bayesian multivariate distribution?

I'm doing some bayesian modeling using BUGS - JAGS to be specific. I find it hard to infer how many stochastic (i.e. non-deterministic) nodes there really are when I use multivariate distributions. ...
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1answer
2k views

JAGS array indexing [closed]

I have a relatively simple multivariate response problem that seems to causing me problems with array indexing. I've scraped/rewworked the model program down to the bare essentials and hopefully ...
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1answer
66 views

Inferring testlet structure in item response theory

Is it possible to infer the testlet structure in a set of items using item response theory? Specifically, I've created a lot of variations on the story recall task, each variation being scored on 25 ...
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0answers
1k views

Within-subjects model in JAGS/stan

I have a general question regarding a varying intercept / varying slope model in jags/stan: I have data from a psychophysics experiment, with one covariate, one within-subjects factor and several ...
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0answers
3k views

Help with JAGS model using matrix multiplication and Dirichlet prior [closed]

I want to set up a simple JAGS model using matrix multiplication, but I am not sure how to set up the matrices. My overall equation is $c=yx$ where $c$ is a 2x1 matrix defined in R of observed data ...
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0answers
53 views

BUGS with very large sample size

I posted this question on the JAGS help discussion, I was seeing if I could get any help here: I wish to fit a survival model using the data below (first two columns are time points, NA represents ...
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1answer
94 views

Is this multivariate normal? 2 time series linked by a common process

Summary: Consider a scenario where you observe the inputs ($X$) to and outputs ($Y$) from a process ($B$). If I have a model describing how $X$ evolves over time, and a similar model for $Y$, how do I ...
2
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1answer
744 views

Only allow positive MCMC-samples: Implications for credible interval

We calculate a Bayesian model and only expect positive values for our parameters. Our prior is however a uniform prior—we get negative samples from MCMC. For Bayes-factor calculations we use the ...
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2answers
3k views

How to conditionally run element of JAGS script based on user supplied variable?

Background: I often find that when working with JAGS that I end up with a lot of JAGS scripts as I explore different models. After a while I might settle on a set of models that I'm going to report, ...
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1answer
346 views

JAGS burn-in phase takes ZERO time? [duplicate]

My breath was taken away by this. I tried to run my JAGS model with different number burn-in samples but it still takes the same amout of time!! ...
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0answers
53 views

Regarding three R packages for Bayesian analysis [duplicate]

There are several R packages for Bayesian analysis, i.e., RBugs, JAGS,MCMCPack. Are there ...
2
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0answers
158 views

Is this JAGS model ok, and can it be made faster?

I'm very new to Bayesian analysis, and I've come up with the following model. My goal is to get for each individual "test unit" a distribution that describes the lift in success rate under one of ...
2
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2answers
491 views

How to analyze this data using rjags, or any other way?

There are three groups that received different treatments and then learn a task which they are scored on over the course of 60 sessions. 1) How to choose a function to fit? -The best choice in this ...
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0answers
1k views

CAR spatial models in JAGS

WinBUGS comes with the GeoBUGS add-on, which contains a number of predefined model structures that are suitable for modelling spatial data structures e.g. geostatical structures (spatial.exp), ...
6
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1answer
2k views

Define Priors for Dirichlet Distribution parameters in JAGS

I'm defining a Multinomial-Dirichlet model in JAGS and want to assign some hyperpriors to the parameters of the Dirichlet distribution. In the WinBugs manual I read that "the parameters of Dirichlet ...
2
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1answer
868 views

Autoregressive prior distributions

I have a set of 50 (P) time series' and each one is on a slightly different but should be influenced by the same effects of time. To get the time effects I have ...
5
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1answer
742 views

Use the improper prior $p(v) \propto 1/v$ into Jags

I know that one can approximate this density ($p(v) \propto 1/v$) using its truncated version and implement it this way: ...
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1answer
1k views

Naive SE vs Time Series SE: which statistics should I report after Bayesian estimation?

I am new to Bayesian estimation. When I do some estimations with JAGS, I find there are statistics called Naive SE and Time Series SE. What exactly do they mean? Is it necessary that I report one or ...
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1answer
1k views

When making inferences about group means, are credible Intervals sensitive to within-subject variance while confidence intervals are not?

This is a spin off of this question: How to compare two groups with multiple measurements for each individual with R? In the answers there (if I understood correctly) I learned that within-subject ...
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0answers
2k views

Using JAGS for bayesian parameter estimation

I am using JAGS in R to construct a probabilistic graph model and estimate the corresponding parameters. The models is described as follows: ...
8
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1answer
5k views

Specify a Zero-inflated (Hurdle) Gamma Model in JAGS/BUGS

I'm trying to use a zero-inflated gamma model (or a gamma 'hurdle' model). The model is a mixture of logistic regression and generalized linear modeling. I can do this analysis in two steps: 1) do a ...
3
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1answer
2k views

How does JAGS deal with state space models?

I am trying to use JAGS to deal with the following multivariate state space model. $Y_t=X_t\theta_t+\epsilon_t$ $\theta_t=\theta_{t-1}+\nu_t$ JAGS code is neat but JAGS is running too slow when I ...
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1answer
2k views

Right-censored survival fit with JAGS

Update: I got the JAGS model running and this eliminates the distracting part of my question. It's really about the proper preparation of data for dinterval() and inits. I can't find a concrete ...
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1answer
1k views

Hierarchical Bayesian analysis on difference of proportions

Why Hierarchical? : I've tried researching this problem, and from what I understand, this is a "hierarchical" problem, because you are making observations about observations from a population, rather ...
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2answers
1k views

How do programs like BUGS/JAGS automatically determine conditional distributions for Gibbs sampling?

Seems like full conditionals are often quite difficult to derive, yet programs like JAGS and BUGS derive them automatically. Can someone explain how they algorithmically generate full conditionals for ...
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3answers
3k views

Weighted generalized regression in BUGS, JAGS

In R we can "prior weight" a glm regression via the weights parameter. For example: ...
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1answer
4k views

How to specify the Wishart distribution scale matrix

I'm running the below Bayesian mixing model in R using the rjags package, but I am having difficultly in specifying the scale matrix for the Wishart distribution. Essentially, I want Sigma.inv to be a ...
4
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1answer
217 views

Fitting proportions in a Bayesian model and controlling the error around the value

I am using a Bayesian state space model constructed in the BUGS language to fit my data. One of the outputs of the "state" part of the model is proportions. I use a beta distribution in the "...
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0answers
98 views

Introducing observation errors in jags code

I want to introduce observations errors around my data in Jags, but I face some trouble coding it without having a double definition error on node Y3 So far I have : ...
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0answers
400 views

How to define a BUGS/JAGS or WinBUGS model with a likelihood node that includes two integrals?

I would like to implement a BUGS/WINBUGS or JAGS model that specifies the likelihood node by marginalizing over two parameters. Is this feasible in BUGS/WINBUGS or JAGS? This is the posterior \begin{...
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0answers
1k views

Label Switching in WinBugs/JAGS

I am using JAGS to estimate a Dirichlet Process Mixture of Normals. The code works well and the estimated density is accurate. However, I would like to know which component each observation is ...
6
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2answers
1k views

Should coin flips be modeled as Bernoulli or binomial draws in RJags?

What is the best way to model coin flips as a hierarchical model? Do you say coin draws are a series of draws from Bernoulli trials or as one draw from a binomial distribution? That is something like ...
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1answer
1k views

Binomial coefficient in JAGS

I'm trying to write such likelihood using JAGS in R (in order to estimate parameters $\xi$ and $\pi$, being $m$ fixed equal 7) using the "ones trick" and got stuck ...
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0answers
1k views

How to model sum of two values in JAGS?

Imagine, that we measured two values and we know, that in reality one measurement directly corresponds to the latent variable "s1", and the other measurement is in fact sum of two values: "s1" and ...
3
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1answer
766 views

Simple cloud computing to run R + JAGS simulations

I want to simulate the frequentist properties of a Bayesian model. So, for example, I might want to fit a Bayesian model 1,000 times to 50 different configurations each of which takes about 10 seconds ...
3
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0answers
429 views

A better bayesian way of modelling autoregressive mixtures

I have a JAGS hierarchical model which includes a temporal sub-model for the primary vote share between four party groups (LNP, Labor, Green, and Other). For each day in the temporal model, the vote ...
5
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1answer
311 views

Difficulties with a Bayesian formulation of a model for human timing data

The Wing-Kristofferson model is a simple model of the behavior of a human trying to drum out a steady beat (that is, trying to mimic a metronome). Let $y_i$ be the $i$th interval between two drum ...
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1answer
97 views

Simulated single value based on multiple chains in RJAGS

I am using RJAGS to simulate the posterior distribution of event that a certain candidate will win the presidential election. I need to find the actual percentage that one of the candidates will have. ...
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1answer
2k views

Error in JAGS code [closed]

I'm trying to run the following code in JAGS ...
1
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1answer
830 views

CODA gleman.diag, Error in chol.default(W): [closed]

I'd like to use gelman.diag for an MCMC chain I ran in JAGS. It is very large, so I can't provide it. The chain contains several MVN distributions, and I use a wishart prior on the precision matrix. ...
4
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1answer
676 views

Multilevel bayesian with AR1 correlation structure

How do I fit a bayesian multilevel model with with AR(1) correlation structure? I am trying to teach myself bayesian modelling and I am wondering how you could specify a multilevel model with an AR(...
2
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0answers
84 views

Coda output, joint quantile

I am running a hierarchical model in JAGS. It is a piecewise constant survival regression model. So I have 4 sets of regression coefficients and baseline hazard rates. I would like to plot a mean ...
14
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3answers
977 views

Bayesian variable selection — does it really work?

I thought I might toy with some Bayesian variable selection, following a nice blog post and the linked papers therein. I wrote a program in rjags (where I am quite a rookie) and fetched price data ...
1
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2answers
5k views

Thinning chains in BUGS/JAGS

Hi I have a quick question about the details of running a model in JAGS and BUGS. Say I run a model with n.burnin=5000, n.iter=5000 and thin=2. Does this mean that the program will run 5,000 ...
4
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2answers
7k views

Categorical distribution in JAGS

How do I specify for a variable to be uniformly sampled from the discrete values $1,2,\ldots,10$ in JAGS? I guess I want to use the dcat() distribution, but I have yet to find good documentation of ...
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1answer
1k views

Combining posterior distributions

I have 5 different posterior distributions (mcmc samples) which all estimate the same parameter beta. The 5 models are all obtained from 5 independent standardized datasets but estimate the same ...
8
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2answers
1k views

Modelling a mixed model in JAGS/BUGS [closed]

I am currently in the process of implementing a model for soccer result prediction in JAGS. Actually, I have implemented several, but I have reached my most difficult challenge yet: A model described ...
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6answers
2k views

R2jags does not remove the burn in part sometimes?

I found out that the function jags() in the R2jags package sometimes does not remove the burn in part even with the option ...
7
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2answers
1k views

What level to use when making inferences on the group mean in a hierarchical Bayesian analysis?

(This question is a bit related to a previous question of mine, but that question was about between subject comparison while this question is specifically about making inferences the group mean.) ...
6
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1answer
1k views

What's the Bayesian counterpart to Pearson product-moment correlation?

I was wondering what the counterpart to Pearson product-moment correlation would be in a Bayesian framework. Or if there are many alternatives, what would be the most convenient or conventional method....