# Questions tagged [mape]

The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is a point forecast accuracy measure. As a percentage, it can be compared between forecasts for time series on different scales, and it is easily interpreted. However, it is asymmetric (underforecasts' MAPEs are bounded at 100%, while overforecasts' are unbounded), potentially leading to biased forecasts. The MAPE is undefined if any actual is zero.

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### How to evaluate forecast results on holdout dataset for sales forecast for 300 stores?

I have forecasts for sales at 20 minute level, two weeks(december first week - high sales period and January second week - low sales period) for over 300 stores. There are Three models providing these ...
0answers
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### Time series prediction correct, but translated on Y axis

TL;DR How to mitigate the Y axis translation of the forecast? Situation I'm trying to predict a stock dataset. The time series is uni-variate. The model seems to perform very well for 1 step output. ...
0answers
24 views

### How to force a neural network to uniformly decrease MAPE?

I aim for replicating an numerical (non stochastic) algorithm by a neural network. Therefore I have basically an unlimited amount of data and I wish that the network have an almost perfect fit in ...
1answer
30 views

### Why the prediction of this Random Forrest model is so poor?

I am using Random Forrest to predict the MRR (Material removal rate). But the predictions have been quite off the mark. Even Linear Regression gave a much better result. I don't know where I'm going ...
1answer
42 views

### Can MAPE values change after inverse tranform of target?

I have tranformed my Target variable as following Maxmin transformation and used an engine to get prediction for a time series data. The target transformation is done using the following formula in ...
0answers
15 views

### Interpretation of MAPE in Linear Regression model?

I made Linear Regression in Python and I have only 1 simple question. I have MAPE = 0.052 it means that my mean percentage error is 0.052% or 5,2% ?
0answers
120 views

### When does MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) fail?

I have a multioutput regression model that predicts float values. When using MAPE to evaluate regression model performance (using either built in libraries or implementing a function for it) I am ...
1answer
36 views

### MAPE vs. SSE error minimization on generated data from a function?

I have a question regarding the performance of MAPE and SSE in fitting datasets generated from another equation. I have the following equation (I am truly sorry, I do not know how to write in LaTeX): ...
1answer
121 views

### Mean absolute percentage error with respect to predictions

A friend of mine has suggested that instead of using mean absolute percentage error, i.e. $$\frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=0}^N \left| \frac{A_i - P_i}{A_i} \right|$$ (where $A_i$ denotes an actual value, $P_i$ ...
1answer
34 views

### What is “symmetry” in evaluation metrics

I'm seeing Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is not symmetric. Tried to understand what is symmetry here but didn't find a good answer online. Can I ask: What is symmetry in evaluation metrics? ...
1answer
38 views

### Is this the right way to evaluate MSE, RMSE, MAE, MAPE after creating a model on data passed through a standard scaler?

Create the Scaler object scaler = preprocessing.StandardScaler() Fit your training data on the scaler object ...
0answers
24 views

### Low value on MAPE when using log CPI

I'm trying to evalute my Holt-Winter model using MAPE (mean absolut percent error) and I'm getting a low value at 0.2% which seems a bit too low. I'm using data on CPI from Belgium (per month) where I ...
0answers
15 views

### Acceptable range for sMAPE measure [duplicate]

Defining sMAPE as $$sMAPE=\frac{2}{h}\Sigma_{t=n+1}^{n+h}\frac{\left\lvert Y_t-\hat{Y_t}\right\rvert}{\left\lvert Y_t\right\rvert+\left\lvert\hat{Y_t}\right\rvert}*100$$ where $Y_t$ is the value of ...
1answer
28 views

### Where is appropriate to use sMAPE performance measure?

I have a code which predicts values using three different models: lm, auto.arima and ...
0answers
15 views

### What is the difference between correlation and mean absolute percentage error? [duplicate]

So here is my question, I have to columns of data. One of them is a black box model's output, and the other one is my actual numbers. The correlation between these two columns is 99%, but the MAPE is ...
2answers
71 views

### MAPE is better but MAE is worse in regression models

I am working on a regression problem to predict price of the vehicle based on its features. I have been experimenting with several trials but in one of them, MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) is ...
1answer
326 views

### Finding a confidence interval of a MAPE

First time posting. I have two columns of data, one for the model output and one for the actual data that has come in. I calculated the MAPE and got a percentage. I performed the following analysis, ...
1answer
14 views

### Own model accuracy measure for regression analysis

Is it possible to produce an own model accuracy measure that takes 100% - MAPE? If MAPE is 5 % for example, the model accuracy would be 95%? Or is that statistically incorrect?
2answers
2k views

### Mean Absolute percentage error getting infinity?

i have written a function for calculating mape using python here i am mentioning the function : ...
2answers
401 views

### Is there any standard / criteria of good forecast measured by SMAPE and MASE?

I have built a forecasting model for a company. Since it is dedicated to practical usage, I prefer to use the relative error parameter (like MAPE, SMAPE, & MASE) as a measurement for my model ...
1answer
372 views

### Is this the correct place to use MAPE as a loss function?

I've made a neural network designed to do regression. However, my dataset is unbalanced, and the data in the smaller section of the dataset have very different target values than the target values in ...
1answer
4k views

### How do I interpret mean absolute error (MAE) or mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in layman words?

For example, I am predicting a score that can have value from 0 to 100. Lets assume MAPE = 10...
1answer
189 views

### Over-fitting SARIMA model

I am currently running an iterative process(for loop) to determine best ARIMA model for monthly sales data according to smallest AIC and MAPE. Box-Jenkins methodology clearly states to choose the ...
0answers
3k views

### Mean absolute percentage error returning NAN in PyTorch [closed]

I'm using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a loss function for an RNN, however during training I start getting NaN values. I first used MAPE to calculate error between sequences of 3D ...
1answer
208 views

### Acceptable Standard for MAPE

What is the general acceptable value of MAPE in industry ?. I am getting MAPE of around 24% on live data that has 48 data points in which 42 as train data and 6 as test data. I am trying to do ARIMA ...
1answer
518 views

### MAPE and SMAPE shift invariance (bias)

MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and SMAPE (Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error) both are sensitive when the TRUE ...
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1k views

### WMAPE / WAPE for the evaluation of time series with positive and negative values

I have a time series y that has both positive and negative that I want to predict. For the prediction I normalize the values to a range between 0 and 1. If I give ...
0answers
38 views

### What is a Good Error Target

I am modeling a forecast for product categories using auto Arima in R. I'm getting MAPE of between 9-15% on average. We don't have any historical records of forecasts vs actual so I don't know how ...
0answers
94 views

### Which average to use to summarise multiple MAPE values?

Suppose you have a model, evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), that has made predictions on 1000 different examples. Each example will have an associated MAPE that reflects how well ...
1answer
442 views

### Why forecast::accuracy() mape is working with 0/0?

I'm learning now some metrics of goodness about time series forecasting, using the forecast package, but I'm stuck in something that surely I've not understood well....
1answer
31 views

### Recency weightage on stock forecast error

Say I want to forecast retail stock for 1 month, on daily basis. The error will be calculated using SMAPE, but I would weight the error using recency, i.e., the nearer the weight from now the higher ...
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4k views

### How do I decide when to use MAPE, SMAPE and MASE for time series analysis on stock forecasting

My task is to forecast future 1 month stock required for retail store, at a daily basis. How do I decide whether MAPE, SMAPE and MASE is a good metrics for the scenario? In my context, over-forecast ...
1answer
390 views

### Dividing the MAE by the average of the values

I would like to parse the MAE (Mean Absolute Error) to a percentage value. I know there is the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), however it has some drawbacks as going to infinity if one of my ...
0answers
364 views

### sMAPE and MAPE with negative values

I have a time series data that is not stationary (with trend and seasonal components) so in order to make it stationary, I've applied a difference transform of 1. Due to this effect, some negative ...
1answer
25 views

### Good metric to assess error in estimating a value

So this seems like a simple question, but I cant find a way to solve it or formulate a solution that makes sense. My case is that I have an algo that detects fuel theft (ft_calc). Now I want to ...
1answer
260 views

### Can I use sMAPE when my actuals and prediction have postive and negative values?

I used several datasets and make predictions on it with many algos (ARIMA, Theta, Smoothing, etc.). Until now the current outome as well as the predictions (of the datasets) were strictly positive (...
1answer
1k views

### How to optimize MAPE in regression algorithms

I have a regression task where the label is varying from about 0.001 to 1000. One of the feature called group, for example, group A corresponding label from 0-0.1 and group G corresponding label from ...
1answer
536 views

### Why is the MAPE exceptionally high [closed]

error on test set: [2442.239337101689, 29.913345202693232, 5162219874.342154] These are the results on the test test for a regression problem. The first two ...
2answers
429 views

### “Percentage” alternatives to MAPE

I'm aware of the problems of MAPE as a measurement, and particularly it's uselessness in the event of a time series where 0 is one of the many values of y. The downside to ditching MAPE in favour of ...
0answers
58 views

### Why am I getting better MAPEs when running an ARIMA model on a non-stationary time series (vs. a stationary one)?

I've been using ARIMA modelling to predict the number of orders a business receives. I have data for 3 years, and the time series shows a strong (uneven) upward trend, with increasing variance over ...
2answers
322 views

### What is the best point forecast for gamma distributed data?

I believe that the values I am forecasting are gamma distributed with shape $k>0$ and scale $\theta>0$. I need a point forecast (i.e., a one-number summary) that minimizes the expected error. ...
2answers
449 views

### What is the best point forecast for lognormally distributed data?

I believe that the values I am forecasting are lognormally distributed with log-mean $\mu$ and log-variance $\sigma^2$. I need a point forecast (i.e., a one-number summary) that minimizes the expected ...
1answer
47 views

### What statistical test do I need for comparing forecasted data with actual data?

I’m currently completing my dissertation and need to compare forecasted wave height to the actual wave height. However I am unsure what statistical test to use. Thanks, Jess
2answers
2k views

### Does normalisation affect the values of Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error etc.?

I have a large amount of data, divided into folders and files. Each file has 56 features/columns and around 10,000 rows. The data is normalised (values between -1 and 1) and some of the features have ...
0answers
218 views

### How correctly overcome problem with an infinity MAPE? [duplicate]

Should I choose an other metric or is the way to handle this problem?
1answer
904 views

### why is the MSE error higher than MASE and MAPE?

I have a product price time series when I apply two models on them, I calculate all of MSE (Mean Squared Error), MASE (Mean Absolute Scaled Error), and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). I noticed ...
1answer
3k views

### Interpretation of Theil's U2 Statistic - “Forecasting Methods and Applications” book

I was reading "Forecasting Methods and Applications" book and came across Theil's U statistic formula. I am facing difficulty in understanding the interpretation of Theil's U statistic. According to ...
1answer
14k views

### MAPE Value more than 100% [closed]

Im using Trend Analysis - Double Exponential Smoothing Plot (not seasonal and it has a trend testedly) to forecast the net amount of carrier switchers (using Mobile number portability) in the future ...
0answers
139 views

### MAPE yielding value of 1000+ for timeseries forecasting [duplicate]

I am comparing a model's outcome with the actual values for a span of 9 months. I am expecting a very large error, however my MAPE implementation yields 1404512.56 using python, pandas. Here is my ...
1answer
13k views

### MAPE vs R-squared in regression models

Usually regression models are evaluated using $R^2$. I understand this metric can be misleading too at times but as far as I understand the first parameter we look at is $R^2$. There is another ...