Questions tagged [marketing]

For on-topic questions about statistics or machine learning used in marketing or market research.

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19 views

How to select control group if I have limited data points

We're launching a campaign and want to see the impact in consumer behavior. This is the experimental group. For choosing the control group I was thinking into checking for past data to see which is ...
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24 views

Media Mix Modelling approach?

I need some guidance on the media mix modeling approach as I am fairly new to it and have been researching about it only for the last few days. I have six months' data which contains daily level ...
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33 views

How to create bayesian test for ROI/ROAS metric

I am interested in using A/B Bayesian testing to compare ROAS for marketing scenarios. I've seen references dealing with cases such as: Using a beta distribution prior to model a binomial-distributed ...
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1answer
28 views

Calculating Average Days Between Customer Orders - Exponential Distribution?

I have detailed sales data including customer number, SKU, product line, and order date. For marketing purposes, I would like to know the average days between orders both on a per-customer, per ...
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26 views

Marketing ROI: Modelling media budget impact on first choice, relevant set (over time)

I want to analyze a dataset with longitudinal data collected over three years. Each month n = 200 randomized people (edit: new sample each month) are asked a small set of evaluative questions (brand ...
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21 views

Analyse of clicks on web - those that click vs those that do not

My department is starting to go into web analytics. We are serving users ads and want to compare populations based on the data we have about those that only saw banner and those that actually clicked ...
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10 views

Appropriate statistical procedures to compare sales based on Internet search keys

This is my first question ever on Stats StackExchange and I am hoping to get some guidance from the community. I have graduated with a BSc in Statistics, so I am familiar with the fundamentals of ...
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1answer
19 views

Is there any meaning to using several validation metrics in cross validation for logit models?

My question might be a bit dumb since I'm relatively new to analysises using k-fold CV, but here goes: I want to compare two logit models using k-fold CV, and then compare with another model type on a ...
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37 views

Influence of TV spots on the number of visits to the website (time series problem)

I have hourly data regarding the number of visits to the website. A single record consists of date, time(0-23) and number of visits. In a separate table I have data about the display of advertising ...
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1answer
98 views

BTYD R package. Why dropping the first puchase in the BG/NBD model?

I am using the BTYD package on R to estimate the probability of a customer churning after my calibration period. At the moment, I have been following the walkthrough provided on the web which you ...
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2answers
49 views

Email marketing campaign test design

We are designing an email campaign with multiple email touch points. And we are trying to understand the incremental value of each additional touch point. Our experimental design will be that the ...
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22 views

Is Beta-Geometric a continuous mixture or a multi-level Bayesian model?

Bruce Hardie, an authority on statistical marketing wrote this reference, which covers various probabilistic methods for various marketing use cases. Specifically, on slide 23 he details a Beta-...
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1answer
253 views

Why do Pareto/NBD models require custom likelihood functions in PyMC3 and Stan?

I'm interested in Bayesian modeling of customer lifetime value (CLV), preferably via PyMC3. I've found that research in this area started mid-to-late 1900's and has remained active since. It would ...
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37 views

How do i calculate if the difference between two advertisement campaigns is significant?

My brother has asked me if I can evaluate if his advertisement campaigns yield significantly different results. It was a couple of years ago I dealt with these kinds of problems, so would appreciate ...
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21 views

How can I attribute how much sales volume came from each medium in a log-log market mix model?

So I started off with this regression equation: $$ sales = \beta_{d}*{(ds_{t} + (ar_{d} * ds_{t-1})})^a_{d} + \beta_{tv}*{(tv_{t} + (ar_{tv} * tv_{t-1})})^a_{tv} + \beta_0 $$ Where $ds$ is the amount ...
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9 views

I am trying to find concurrent validity between a choice based conjoint analysis attribute and an existing scale? how do I conduct this function?

I'm struggling with my research. I conducted a choice-based conjoint analysis. One of the attributes is the level of adoption by friends (i.e. 0% have adopted the product, 50%.., 100%...)and I have a ...
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1answer
340 views

Poisson regression for market media modeling?

I put together a related question linked for added context; it generally overviews a model proposed by Google in 2017 for (Marketing) Media Mix Modelling (MMM.) The model updates the pretense of MMM ...
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1answer
699 views

PyMC3 implementation of Bayesian MMM: poor posterior inference

Google released a whitepaper on Media Mix Modelling (MMM) in 2017; vanilla MMM (established in the 1960s) uses multivariate regression. It's a decent mechanism to understand which of your marketing ...
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30 views

How are gradients of series of computed?

I've been reviewing a 2017 paper by Google where they expand media mix modelling (MMM) into a Bayesian framework. Vanilla MMM is just OLS regression where X is marketing spend on M unique channels ...
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14 views

How to compare and evaluate different business concepts?

Don't ask me how exactly I came up with this question but I wonder about the following: Assume you want to compare different offers in how requested (and/or how profitable) they are. In addition, due ...
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20 views

STATA mle function for Mcfadden MNL model

I am estimating the covariates for an aggregate market data set. I am aware of the pre-existing STATA packages out there like mlogit, clogit etc.., however they do not fit my case as I am working with ...
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125 views

How can I improve the CLV accuracy from lifetimes model?

Not sure whether this should be asked in StackOverflow or here, but I believe this question is most about statistics, so I'll try it here. So I was modelling the Customer Lifetime Value using ...
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22 views

Confidence Interval as a feature in supervised learning?

Imagine a model that predicts the probability that a given online ad will be clicked by a given user. One of the features is the click-through rate (CTR) of the user (...
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1answer
73 views

Bayesian Multiple Item Response Models?

I am trying to extend the ideas of item response theory to multiple responses. Consider a marketing survey, which asks customers, "what's the deciding factor in whether or not you purchase ...
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1answer
194 views

Market Mix Modeling using Random Forest

I am trying to build a random forest-based market mix model, wherein I want to calculate the contribution of each of my X variables towards the target. Typical MMM problem statement, but here am not ...
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1answer
150 views

Bayes theorem in advertising [closed]

I am new to Bayes theorem, and was wondering if anyone can guide me through this question. An advertising agency want to analyze the advertisements for a product. They want to target people from all ...
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1answer
200 views

Design of experiments and building a logistic-regression-like model

Consider a population characterized in terms of a small number of categorical features (age category, income bracket, gender, level of education, etc.). I am interested in how these features affect ...
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78 views

Modelling Funnel data with a regression approach

I have the following marketing dataset: Two years of weekly brand from the YouGov BrandIndex, based on a survey. It includes Awareness Consideration Purchase Intent Sales Media Invest into Channel 1 (...
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27 views

Using macroeconomic variables in Market Mix Model

I am building a market mix model from proprietary data to predict sales. I would like to include macroeconomic variables as well, such as unemployment rate and consumer confidence. However, the ...
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22 views

Choose t-test or ANOVA for personalized ad effectiveness within each cohort?

I've got 10 cohorts(determined by ML clustering) of customers I can target for customer personalization ads. The experimental design is that I send out a known standard personal ad(based on cohort ...
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40 views

T-test for marketing data in excel

I am currently running an A/B test, and I’m not sure how I should be arranging my data to run a t-test in excel. I have 1 control and 2 variations that I am running for an advertising campaign - the ...
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20 views

marketing hypothesis test sample size calculation

I am trying to design a coupon promotion test to measure the increase in the volume of orders from promotion versus no promotion. To do so, I want to calculate the pre-group sample size required to ...
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2answers
1k views

Poisson Gamma Mixture = Negative Binomially Distributed?

This paper introduces a model called "Beta-Geometric / NBD" which models "repeat-buying behavior in settings where customer “dropout” is unobserved: It assumes that customers buy at a ...
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1answer
291 views

Sample Size Calculation - Two Independent Means

I am trying to design an email test to measure the demand lift obtained from a marketing promotion (treatment) versus no promotion (control). To do so, I want to calculate the per-group sample size ...
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2answers
54 views

Email open-rate test

We ran an AB test for four days, sending our clients the same emails but with different headings, in order to know which header logic is better (i.e. has has the highest Open Rate (OR) = openings/ ...
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14 views

It is possible to use Time series to predict wether a marketing action is a success or not

Is it possible to use time series could be used to forecast the implementation of an offer ? Following I am describing an example about how to implement that, is it valid? Can I use ARIMA time series ...
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2answers
152 views

Interpretation of the Linear regression model using ggplot2

I used ggplot() for visualization and linear regression in R for this model. I am not confident if I interpreted the model right. These are my thoughts. The $p$-...
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31 views

Modeling Marketing Sales

I am working on a problem in which I have daily Sales and daily Offline and Online Marketing Spends. I built a linear regression model where Sales = f(Online Spend, Offline Spend, Lag Sales) at rolled-...
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1answer
19 views

What statistics can I apply to explain how much socio demographics influence revenue?

I'm looking to explain the revenue made by a coffee shop based on socio demographic data like gender, population, ...
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16 views

rule of thumb for generalizing observations to population

I recently had a question from a co-worker, “How big a sample would you need to feel comfortable communicating figures?” My answer was two part: 1) if we’re trying to show something made a ...
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1answer
37 views

How to model energy production capacity

I am doing market research for wind energy production capacity (in megawatt) in an African country. I have data about the wind energy production capacity over the years. It looks like the following : ...
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286 views

Can I estimate base sales in a Marketing Mix Model (MMM) with muddled promotional data?

I am building a marketing mix model (MMM) for an online casino, but they regularly run promotions and marketing campaigns that overlap. Trying to determine a baseline level of sales has been difficult....
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10 views

How to calculate the amount of a dependent variable that was owing to an independent variable

I have run a regression analysis on some radio marketing activity and its effect on the number of website users, however, I was wondering if there was a way to then use this to calculate the amount of ...
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18 views

Is Kruskall-Wallis H test suitable to influence marketing plan after survey?

I've run a survey which received around 270 responses from a population of around 5,500. The survey asks brief demographic questions followed by opinion questions, akin to the following: Demog Q 1: ...
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1answer
38 views

Data Pre Processing Regression Analysis

I am preparing a regression analysis of sales data and advertisement data. The sales data is from Monday to Sunday, but Sundays have a value of 0 because the store is closed. The advertisement data ...
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62 views

A/B testing with conversion rate higher than 1

I encountered the following issue with A/B testing. Imagine that you have a website where visitor are crazy and that they buy a lot of items each time they visit. The conversion rate of each version ...
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1answer
147 views

Basic AB Testing with R

Suppose there is an email campaign for customers. There are two equally divided groups A and B. B received an email with "Offer ends this Saturday. Use code B!". A did not receive the email. How ...
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1answer
92 views

ARIMA Time Series Simulation - Media Mix Model

I have designed and tested a time series model where I am able to examine the impact of various marketing channels on dependent variables (Such as sales, revenue, website traffic, etc). The model has ...
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1answer
86 views

Marketing mix model with marketing campaigns that are not consistent?

So we got sales data for six months which has 4 different marketing type campaigns running. One of them is in-store which runs for 3 months only. Another campaign is social which has the least spend ...
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2answers
245 views

Validity assessment of multiple regression marketing mix model

My employer has engaged a consultancy firm to carry out marketing mix modeling in order to quantify the impact of various marketing activities and promotional campaigns on overall sales and also for ...