Questions tagged [marketing]

For on-topic questions about statistics or machine learning used in marketing or market research.

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How to measure the change in customer flow from brand A to brand B at two points in time (pretest and posttest) after a stimulus?

I am conducting a research in which I have data on the purchase of 4 brands of some consumers in a first period of time (pretest). But I also have the data for the purchase of those 4 brands and the ...
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Most marketing channel have negative coefficient in econometrics model for sales?

This is the first time I am working on an econometrics model (Market Mix Modelling) for sales. I have weekly sales data and the number of impressions from various marketing channels like FB, Twitter, ...
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Error while sending the email in marketo [closed]

Hope you are doing well! In Marketo, I change my setting a month before, and after that, I am getting these errors while sending emails like 550 5.4.1 Recipient address rejected: Access denied ,550 5....
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Under what conditions will prices of shares in a binary prediction market accurately represent probabilities?

I often see that prediction market sites say that the prices of the shares on outcomes can be interpreted as the likelihood of the outcome occurring. But under what conditions is this true?
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Binomial test with Chance level prediction

Thanks for reading. I wanted to ask if my logic I used for my experiment makes any sense. My hypothesis is that watching Pepsi commercial increases Pepsi preference. My experiment has 2 steps. (1) ...
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1 answer
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Binary classification supervisor definition help

I need help with defining the supervisor for a ML model. Background: I’m predicting if a customer will respond positively to a marketing campaign. The response is a binary variable that I am given at ...
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Modern MMM implementations?

I have been working with my company's Marketing Mix Modeling solution for years now. We are looking to update our modeling methodology and are looking at different options. What are the current 'up-to-...
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Need help choosing appropriate algorithm for building a Lookalike audience

Newly practicing data scientist here! I am currently stumped on a project and reaching out for some guidance: I am working with the marketing team in our customer database. There is a small subset of ...
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Best aproach for marketing mix modeling (mixed model, GLMM, Random forests etc)

I want to build marketing mix model based on a data that containes 365 sequential daily oberservations of a sales of a single SKU in $ comming from 2 markets (east and west). I have follwong data: ...
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Statistical Methods - Mobile Advertising

I am trying to build a statistical model for the company for which I am currently working in order to drive our decision making. We work with marketing campaigns and in the past few months I realized ...
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1 answer
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Is this a statistical test ? what is the experimental unit? and how to treat dependency between observations?

I'm trying to understand which statistical test to use and what is my experimental unit? The problem: We have a budget algorithm that moves the budget between 10 different ad campaigns and tries to ...
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How to derive sales contribution in a log-log regression media mix model?

I am working on a media mix model to determine how different media channels impact sales. Since there is a non-linear relationship between sales and media spend, I needed to apply a log transformation ...
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Is there a way to model effects with target variable only having few data points?

I am wondering whether it is possible to analyze the effect of spend level of various marketing channels (about 6 channels) on brand visibility, while I only have few datapoints for the target ...
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How to select control group if I have limited data points

We're launching a campaign and want to see the impact in consumer behavior. This is the experimental group. For choosing the control group I was thinking into checking for past data to see which is ...
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Media Mix Modelling approach?

I need some guidance on the media mix modeling approach as I am fairly new to it and have been researching about it only for the last few days. I have six months' data which contains daily level ...
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How to create bayesian test for ROI/ROAS metric

I am interested in using A/B Bayesian testing to compare ROAS for marketing scenarios. I've seen references dealing with cases such as: Using a beta distribution prior to model a binomial-distributed ...
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1 answer
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Calculating Average Days Between Customer Orders - Exponential Distribution?

I have detailed sales data including customer number, SKU, product line, and order date. For marketing purposes, I would like to know the average days between orders both on a per-customer, per ...
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Marketing ROI: Modelling media budget impact on first choice, relevant set (over time)

I want to analyze a dataset with longitudinal data collected over three years. Each month n = 200 randomized people (edit: new sample each month) are asked a small set of evaluative questions (brand ...
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Analyse of clicks on web - those that click vs those that do not

My department is starting to go into web analytics. We are serving users ads and want to compare populations based on the data we have about those that only saw banner and those that actually clicked ...
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Appropriate statistical procedures to compare sales based on Internet search keys

This is my first question ever on Stats StackExchange and I am hoping to get some guidance from the community. I have graduated with a BSc in Statistics, so I am familiar with the fundamentals of ...
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Is there any meaning to using several validation metrics in cross validation for logit models?

My question might be a bit dumb since I'm relatively new to analysises using k-fold CV, but here goes: I want to compare two logit models using k-fold CV, and then compare with another model type on a ...
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Influence of TV spots on the number of visits to the website (time series problem)

I have hourly data regarding the number of visits to the website. A single record consists of date, time(0-23) and number of visits. In a separate table I have data about the display of advertising ...
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BTYD R package. Why dropping the first puchase in the BG/NBD model?

I am using the BTYD package on R to estimate the probability of a customer churning after my calibration period. At the moment, I have been following the walkthrough provided on the web which you ...
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2 answers
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Email marketing campaign test design

We are designing an email campaign with multiple email touch points. And we are trying to understand the incremental value of each additional touch point. Our experimental design will be that the ...
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Why do Pareto/NBD models require custom likelihood functions in PyMC3 and Stan?

I'm interested in Bayesian modeling of customer lifetime value (CLV), preferably via PyMC3. I've found that research in this area started mid-to-late 1900's and has remained active since. It would ...
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How do i calculate if the difference between two advertisement campaigns is significant?

My brother has asked me if I can evaluate if his advertisement campaigns yield significantly different results. It was a couple of years ago I dealt with these kinds of problems, so would appreciate ...
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How can I attribute how much sales volume came from each medium in a log-log market mix model?

So I started off with this regression equation: $$ sales = \beta_{d}*{(ds_{t} + (ar_{d} * ds_{t-1})})^a_{d} + \beta_{tv}*{(tv_{t} + (ar_{tv} * tv_{t-1})})^a_{tv} + \beta_0 $$ Where $ds$ is the amount ...
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Poisson regression for market media modeling?

I put together a related question linked for added context; it generally overviews a model proposed by Google in 2017 for (Marketing) Media Mix Modelling (MMM.) The model updates the pretense of MMM ...
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6 votes
1 answer
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PyMC3 implementation of Bayesian MMM: poor posterior inference

Google released a whitepaper on Media Mix Modelling (MMM) in 2017; vanilla MMM (established in the 1960s) uses multivariate regression. It's a decent mechanism to understand which of your marketing ...
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How to compare and evaluate different business concepts?

Don't ask me how exactly I came up with this question but I wonder about the following: Assume you want to compare different offers in how requested (and/or how profitable) they are. In addition, due ...
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How can I improve the CLV accuracy from lifetimes model?

Not sure whether this should be asked in StackOverflow or here, but I believe this question is most about statistics, so I'll try it here. So I was modelling the Customer Lifetime Value using ...
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Bayesian Multiple Item Response Models?

I am trying to extend the ideas of item response theory to multiple responses. Consider a marketing survey, which asks customers, "what's the deciding factor in whether or not you purchase ...
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Market Mix Modeling using Random Forest

I am trying to build a random forest-based market mix model, wherein I want to calculate the contribution of each of my X variables towards the target. Typical MMM problem statement, but here am not ...
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1 answer
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Bayes theorem in advertising [closed]

I am new to Bayes theorem, and was wondering if anyone can guide me through this question. An advertising agency want to analyze the advertisements for a product. They want to target people from all ...
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2 votes
1 answer
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Design of experiments and building a logistic-regression-like model

Consider a population characterized in terms of a small number of categorical features (age category, income bracket, gender, level of education, etc.). I am interested in how these features affect ...
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Modelling Funnel data with a regression approach

I have the following marketing dataset: Two years of weekly brand from the YouGov BrandIndex, based on a survey. It includes Awareness Consideration Purchase Intent Sales Media Invest into Channel 1 (...
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Using macroeconomic variables in Market Mix Model

I am building a market mix model from proprietary data to predict sales. I would like to include macroeconomic variables as well, such as unemployment rate and consumer confidence. However, the ...
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Choose t-test or ANOVA for personalized ad effectiveness within each cohort?

I've got 10 cohorts(determined by ML clustering) of customers I can target for customer personalization ads. The experimental design is that I send out a known standard personal ad(based on cohort ...
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T-test for marketing data in excel

I am currently running an A/B test, and I’m not sure how I should be arranging my data to run a t-test in excel. I have 1 control and 2 variations that I am running for an advertising campaign - the ...
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1 vote
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marketing hypothesis test sample size calculation

I am trying to design a coupon promotion test to measure the increase in the volume of orders from promotion versus no promotion. To do so, I want to calculate the pre-group sample size required to ...
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10 votes
2 answers
2k views

Poisson Gamma Mixture = Negative Binomially Distributed?

This paper introduces a model called "Beta-Geometric / NBD" which models "repeat-buying behavior in settings where customer “dropout” is unobserved: It assumes that customers buy at a ...
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2 votes
1 answer
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Sample Size Calculation - Two Independent Means

I am trying to design an email test to measure the demand lift obtained from a marketing promotion (treatment) versus no promotion (control). To do so, I want to calculate the per-group sample size ...
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3 votes
2 answers
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Email open-rate test

We ran an AB test for four days, sending our clients the same emails but with different headings, in order to know which header logic is better (i.e. has has the highest Open Rate (OR) = openings/ ...
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1 vote
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It is possible to use Time series to predict wether a marketing action is a success or not

Is it possible to use time series could be used to forecast the implementation of an offer ? Following I am describing an example about how to implement that, is it valid? Can I use ARIMA time series ...
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Interpretation of the Linear regression model using ggplot2

I used ggplot() for visualization and linear regression in R for this model. I am not confident if I interpreted the model right. These are my thoughts. The $p$-...
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Modeling Marketing Sales

I am working on a problem in which I have daily Sales and daily Offline and Online Marketing Spends. I built a linear regression model where Sales = f(Online Spend, Offline Spend, Lag Sales) at rolled-...
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1 answer
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What statistics can I apply to explain how much socio demographics influence revenue?

I'm looking to explain the revenue made by a coffee shop based on socio demographic data like gender, population, ...
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1 vote
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rule of thumb for generalizing observations to population

I recently had a question from a co-worker, “How big a sample would you need to feel comfortable communicating figures?” My answer was two part: 1) if we’re trying to show something made a ...
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2 votes
1 answer
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How to model energy production capacity

I am doing market research for wind energy production capacity (in megawatt) in an African country. I have data about the wind energy production capacity over the years. It looks like the following : ...
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Can I estimate base sales in a Marketing Mix Model (MMM) with muddled promotional data?

I am building a marketing mix model (MMM) for an online casino, but they regularly run promotions and marketing campaigns that overlap. Trying to determine a baseline level of sales has been difficult....
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