# Questions tagged [martingale]

In probability theory, a martingale is a model of a fair game where knowledge of past events never helps predict the mean of the future winnings and only the current event matters.

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### Does a martingale difference sequence (mds) imply strong mixing?

I read this from an econometrics paper " The typical hypothesis which is imposed in the time series literature is that the $u_t$'s are either independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) or a ...
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• 85
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### The magic money tree problem

I thought of this problem in the shower, it was inspired by investment strategies. Let's say there was a magic money tree. Every day, you can offer an amount of money to the money tree and it will ...
1 vote
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### How to check these sequences generated by i.i.d random variables are martingales?

Let $\{Y_n\}_{n\geq 1}$ be a sequence of independent, identically distributed random variables. $P(Y_i=1)=P(Y_i=-1)=\frac12$ Set $S_0=0$ and $S_n=Y_1+...+Y_n$ if $n\geq 1$ I want to check if the ...
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### log transform fixed PH in Cox model - how?

I have survival data to which I am fitting a Cox model with a continuous predictor. The cumulative martingale residual method (supremum test) of Lin, Wei and Ying suggested that both proportional ...
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### When is the posterior distribution equal to the prior?

So I have heard that if the prior distribution is in the subexponential class, applying Bayes rule does not change the belief. I have been trying to find an example of this but I am unable to do so. I ...
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### Cox PH linearity assumption: reading martingal residual plots

According to a lot of ressources about Cox PH model, continuous numeric variables should be tested for linearity assymption by plotting the Martingale residuals. In R, you can use ...
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### Cox PH model: managing continuous variables and linearity assumption

In an epidemiological study, I'm using martingale plot to assess the linearity of continuous variables. Here are the Martingale Residuals (from Null Model) using R's ...
• 1,109
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### How to approach Basketball "Beat the Pro" drill with Markov Chain

Suppose, similarly to Gambler's ruin problem a Basketball player is doing "Beat the Pro" drill. That is, for every shot made, he scores one point, and for those missed, two points are to be deducted. ...
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### Azuma's inequality Use

For binary vectors, x = (x1,x2,...,xn) and y=(y1,y2,...,yn), the Hammond distance between them is defined by d(x,y) = |x1 - y1| + |x2 - y2| + ... + |xn - yn|. Let A be a finite set of such vectors ...
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### Martingales: Why must expected posterior equal prior?

For a posterior distribution to be plausible in the Bayesian sense (Bayes' Plausible), it is said that: $\mathbb{E}(\mu_{t+1} | \mu_t) = \mu_t$ where $\mu_t$ is the posterior distribution at time \$...
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