Questions tagged [martingale]

In probability theory, a martingale is a model of a fair game where knowledge of past events never helps predict the mean of the future winnings and only the current event matters.

Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
0
votes
0answers
28 views

How can I mathematically prove this time series when $e_t$ has i.i.d distribution?

Not really sure on how to simplify the $y_t$ because there is $y_{t-1}^2$ In order for a time series to be Martingale difference sequence the expected value given all the past value should be 0 and ...
2
votes
1answer
31 views

How can I test if a time-series data satisfies Markov's property and it is a martingale?

My question is about investigating some properties of time-series. How can I test if my time-series data satisfies Markov's property? How can I test if my time-series data is a martingale? I wonder ...
2
votes
0answers
65 views

Carré du champ operator is a quadratic variation

Let $X_t$ be a real valued Markov process (starting at $x$) with generator $L$. Let $\Gamma(f)$ denote Carré du champ operator i.e. $L(f^2) - 2f \cdot L (f)$. As far as I know under suitable ...
2
votes
1answer
43 views

How to show that an m.d.s is not independent?

I have to prove that this Martingale Difference: $x_t = u_t u_{t-1}$ where $u_t \sim^{iid} (0, \sigma^2)$ is not serially independent, but am failing to do such thing. I also have to prove that it's ...
0
votes
0answers
17 views

Is unit root the same with martingale

I'm confused between these two concepts. Could you give an explanation? Many thanks.
1
vote
1answer
42 views

Are these Bernoulli variables independent?

I was reading a paper in which it was assumed that $\varepsilon_1,\cdots,\varepsilon_n$ conditional on $X$ possess serial (non-linear) dependence, such that \begin{equation} P[\varepsilon_t\geq0\mid\...
2
votes
2answers
96 views

What is the meaning of $X \in \mathcal {F}$ in probability space ${\displaystyle (\Omega ,{\mathcal {F}},P)}$?

I'm studying Martingales. In the text I keep finding $X \in \mathcal {F}$ with random variable $X:\Omega \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$. And $\mathcal {F}$ a $\sigma$-algebra of $\Omega$. What does it ...
0
votes
0answers
31 views

weird outlier in a cox regression model

I'm using normal deviate residual to identify outliers, and I'm confused that my plot seems to suggest that there are unreasonably a lot of outliers...? Has anyone seen something like this? ...
6
votes
3answers
315 views

Conditional expectation of random variables defined off of each other

First of all, when we say that $X_n \sim \text{Unif}(0,X_{n-1})$, what does that mean, rigorously? Does it mean that for every $\omega \in \Omega$, $X_n(\omega)\sim \text{Unif}(0,X_{n-1}(\omega))$? ...
6
votes
2answers
1k views

Prove that a simple random walk is a martingale

Note that $a$ has a mean of 0. My approach: $$X_t=X_{t-1}+a_t$$ $$E[X_{t+1}\mid X_1 + \dots+X_{t-1}]$$ $$=E[X_{t-1}+2a\mid X_1 + \dots+X_{t-1}]$$ $$=E[X_{t-1}\mid X_1 + \dots+X_{t-1}]+E[2a\mid X_1 + ...
2
votes
2answers
133 views

Does a martingale difference sequence (mds) imply strong mixing?

I read this from an econometrics paper " The typical hypothesis which is imposed in the time series literature is that the $u_t$'s are either independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) or a ...
3
votes
1answer
68 views

Help to understand martingale example from Billingsley

I am studying Billingsley's section 35 about martingales and I have some difficulties understanding one of the examples. This is the example 35.4. Suppose we have a measurable space $(\Omega,\mathcal ...
0
votes
1answer
209 views

Martingale Difference Sequence

I saw that in the link on page 3 it is said $Y_t = e_t\cdot e_{t-1}$ is martingale difference sequence and dependent where $e_t$ is i.i.d with $N(0,\sigma^2)$ Could you provide me with the proof of it?...
0
votes
0answers
61 views

Martingale Difference Sequence CLT

Could you provide me with the proof of the following: $$n^{-1/2} \cdot\sum_t a_{t-j}e_t$$ converges to normal distribution as $n$ goes infinity by martingale difference sequence CLT where $a_t = \...
20
votes
4answers
1k views

The magic money tree problem

I thought of this problem in the shower, it was inspired by investment strategies. Let's say there was a magic money tree. Every day, you can offer an amount of money to the money tree and it will ...
1
vote
2answers
161 views

How to check these sequences generated by i.i.d random variables are martingales?

Let $\{Y_n\}_{n\geq 1}$ be a sequence of independent, identically distributed random variables. $P(Y_i=1)=P(Y_i=-1)=\frac12$ Set $S_0=0$ and $S_n=Y_1+...+Y_n$ if $n\geq 1$ I want to check if the ...
2
votes
1answer
191 views

log transform fixed PH in Cox model - how?

I have survival data to which I am fitting a Cox model with a continuous predictor. The cumulative martingale residual method (supremum test) of Lin, Wei and Ying suggested that both proportional ...
2
votes
1answer
301 views

When is the posterior distribution equal to the prior?

So I have heard that if the prior distribution is in the subexponential class, applying Bayes rule does not change the belief. I have been trying to find an example of this but I am unable to do so. I ...
5
votes
1answer
1k views

Cox PH linearity assumption: reading martingal residual plots

According to a lot of ressources about Cox PH model, continuous numeric variables should be tested for linearity assymption by plotting the Martingale residuals. In R, you can use ...
3
votes
2answers
745 views

Cox PH model: managing continuous variables and linearity assumption

In an epidemiological study, I'm using martingale plot to assess the linearity of continuous variables. Here are the Martingale Residuals (from Null Model) using R's ...
3
votes
0answers
60 views

How to approach Basketball “Beat the Pro” drill with Markov Chain

Suppose, similarly to Gambler's ruin problem a Basketball player is doing "Beat the Pro" drill. That is, for every shot made, he scores one point, and for those missed, two points are to be deducted. ...
2
votes
0answers
45 views

Azuma's inequality Use

For binary vectors, x = (x1,x2,...,xn) and y=(y1,y2,...,yn), the Hammond distance between them is defined by d(x,y) = |x1 - y1| + |x2 - y2| + ... + |xn - yn|. Let A be a finite set of such vectors ...
2
votes
0answers
101 views

Write expectation of brownian motion conditional on filtration as an integral?

Let $W_t$ be a Brownian motion, so $W_t=z_t \sqrt{t}$ where $z_t \in N(0,1)$ and the pdf of $z$ is $f(z)=\frac{e^{-\frac{z^2}{2}}}{\sqrt{2\pi}}$. So $$E(W_t)=\int_{-\infty}^{\infty} W_t f(z) dz =\...
0
votes
1answer
1k views

Martingale Difference & Conditional Heteroskedasticity

I was reading this passage in a book and I am confused about the last line. As far as I understand, the white noise process does not allow for conditional heteroskedasticity due to its i.i.d. property....
2
votes
0answers
357 views

Is a random walk necessarily a martingale?

I read in the following notes (http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/classes/econ672/Falk/_notes/lecture_4_martingales.pdf, p.2) that "a random walk is a martingale." Although it seems logical with the used ...
3
votes
0answers
148 views

Upper bound for randomly weighted sum of independent random variables

I have a sequence of independent random variables {$\epsilon_j$} with mean 0. I also have another sequence of Bernoulli random variables $\delta_1, \delta_2,\dots$ which are dependent on the previous ...
0
votes
0answers
24 views

1_event set notation

I do not understand the notation as given here: The source for the image is page 17 in this paper after equation 18. I understand the first subset notation but what does 1_\e_t mean?
-1
votes
2answers
2k views

Why white noise process and IID process are considered martingale [closed]

Can anyone explain to me why A white noise process (εt) and An IID process (εt) are martingales?
0
votes
0answers
58 views

$M_t$ Local Martingale if and only if satisfies $\frac{\partial f}{\partial t}+\frac{1}{2}\frac{\partial^2 f}{\partial x^2}=0$ proof?

I was reading the wikipedia article on local martingales and it states the following theorem Let $W_t$ be standard Brownian motion and let $f:[0,\infty)\times\mathbb{R}\rightarrow\mathbb{R}$ such ...
4
votes
1answer
2k views

ABRACADABRA Problem

As a complement to this answer for those not familiar with martingales. What is the expected number of keystrokes (or "time") it would take a monkey to type the string $\small \text{...
0
votes
0answers
18 views

An inequality about expectation [duplicate]

If $X_n$ is a martingales with $sup E|X_n|^p<\infty$ where $p>1$, How can show that $$E^p|X_n|\leq E |X_n|^p$$
5
votes
1answer
2k views

Martingales: Why must expected posterior equal prior?

For a posterior distribution to be plausible in the Bayesian sense (Bayes' Plausible), it is said that: $\mathbb{E}(\mu_{t+1} | \mu_t) = \mu_t$ where $\mu_t$ is the posterior distribution at time $...
9
votes
1answer
3k views

Semi-martingale vs. martingale. What is the difference?

Can someone please explain (preferably in layman's terms) what is the difference between semi-martingales and martingales? I have found the following sentence on Wikipedia: In probability theory, a ...
1
vote
0answers
85 views

The best constant in a martingale moment inequality

Suppose we have a stochastic integral of the form $M_{t}=\int_{0}^{t}{H_{u}dW_{u}}$ and we know $M$ is a (true) martingale. It is known that for all $p\geq1$, $$ \mathbb{E}[|M_{t}|^{p}]^{1/p} \leq C(p)...
2
votes
1answer
141 views

How to Simplify the Representation of Local Martingales?

This is a follow-up to my previous question on MathOverflow. Is there a way to combine the Dambis-Dubins-Schwarz theorem and the Martingale Representation Theorem to get the following result? Let $...
6
votes
1answer
124 views

Martingale process

Let $\zeta(t)$ be a process with independent increments and $M(t)=E(\exp(\zeta(t))) < \infty $, show that $M(t)^{-1}\exp(\zeta(t))$ is a martingale. So what I need to show is $$E(M(t)^{-1}\exp(\...
2
votes
1answer
4k views

Difference between random walk and martingale

I am trying to understand the diffrence between random walk and martingale. According to my understanding, a random walk without drift is $$ y_{t} = y_{t-1} + u_{t} $$ where $u_{t}$ is $i.i.d.(0, \...
0
votes
1answer
72 views

martingales, stochastic processes

Suppose Xn, $n\geqslant0$ is a Markov chain on $\varphi =\left \{ 0,1,2,...,d \right \}$ and $P(x,y)=\frac{\binom{2x}{y}\binom{2d-2x}{d-y}}{\binom{2d}{d}} $. States 0 and d are absorbing states for ...
1
vote
0answers
57 views

Does the LHS of $E[X_n | \mathscr F_{n-1}]$ make sense even if $X_n$ is not integrable or adapted?

Let $(\Omega, \mathscr F, \{\mathscr F_n\}_{n \in \mathbb N}, \mathbb P)$ be a filtered probability space. Then $X_n$ is a $(\{\mathscr F_n\}_{n \in \mathbb N}, \mathbb P)-$martingale if: $X_n$'s are ...
5
votes
1answer
1k views

How to compute expectation of square of Riemann integral of a random variable?

How does one compute $E[(\int_0^T W_s ds)^2]$ where $(W_t)_{t \in [0,T]}$ is standard Brownian motion in $(\Omega, \mathscr F, \mathbb P)$? Apparently proving $$\int_0^T W_s ds = \int_0^T (T-s) dW_s ...
4
votes
1answer
107 views

Prove $Z_n = X_n1_{n \le T} + Y_n1_{n+1\ge T}$ is a martingale

Given a filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathscr F, \{\mathscr F_n\}, \mathbb P)$, let $X = (X_n)_{n \in \mathbb N}$ and $Y = (Y_n)_{n \in \mathbb N}$ be $(\{\mathscr F_n\}, \mathbb P)-$...
2
votes
1answer
59 views

Prove Doob's using a certain Lemma

I am to prove Doob's (d) in the red box below: What I tried: Since $T < \infty$ a.s., we have $$E[X_T] = E[\lim X_{T \wedge n}].$$ By Fatou's Lemma, we have $$E\left[\lim X_{T \wedge n}\right] ...
1
vote
2answers
54 views

Probability of being $\$5$ up after $25$ plays of a game of Heads and Tails (fair coin) [duplicate]

In a game of heads and tails with a fair coin - you win $\$1$ if heads; lose $\$1$ if ...
2
votes
1answer
290 views

Proving Y is a martingale using indicator functions

Prove the stochastic process $Y = (Y_n)_{n \geq 0}$ is a martingale w/rt the filtration $\mathscr{F} = (\mathscr{F_n})_{n \geq 0}$, where $\mathscr{F_n} = \mathscr{F_n}^{Y} \doteq \sigma(Y_0, Y_1, ...,...
2
votes
3answers
268 views

How to show $M_n = X_n^2-n$ is a martingale?

Let $X_n, n = 0, 1, 2, . . .$ denote an unbiased Normal Random Walk. $X_0 = 10$, and $X_{n+1} = X_n + Y_{n+1}$, with $\{Y_n\}$ are i.i.d. $N(0, 1)$. Then how can I show that: A) $M_n = X_n^2-n$ is a ...
4
votes
2answers
333 views

Finding $b$ such that $e^{5B_t - bt}$ is a martingale

I have $X_t = e^{5B_t}$ and Where $B_t$ is brownian motion at time $t$. $M_t = X_t \cdot e^{-bt}$ I need to find a value for $b$ such that $M_t$ is a martingale. I am encountering difficulty, ...
6
votes
3answers
719 views

Power martingales for change detection: M goes to zero?

I'm trying to apply the power martingale framework by [Vovk et al., 2003] to change detection in unlabeled data streams, just like in [Ho and Wechsler, 2007]. The basic idea involves using a power ...
1
vote
1answer
1k views

How to assess the functional form of covariates in the Cox model with martingale residuals in R?

I want to find if the functional forms of covariates in my Cox model are linear. I understand the way to do this is to plot the Martingale residuals against the covariate of interest. I have found ...
6
votes
4answers
33k views

Is it a valid algorithm to win at the casino roulette?

I would like to try the following algorithm in order to win in the roulette: Be an observer until there are 3 same parity numbers in a row ($0$ has no defined parity in this context) Once there were ...
3
votes
1answer
195 views

Basic question about the filtration in the martingale formed by sum of iid random variables

It is known that if $X_i$ are iid, $E(|X_i|) < \infty$ and $E(X_i) = 0$ then $S_n = \sum_1^n X_i$ is a martingale. Suppose all $X_i$ are defined wrt sample space $\Omega$. I don't understand why $...