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Probabilistic model of neural network

I read Neil's presentation and found this joint model is confusing: $$p(y_*|y, X, x_*) = \int p(y_*|x_*, W)p(W|y, X)dW $$ where $W$ contains $W_1$ and $W_2$ and $p(W|y,X)$ is posterior density Can ...
eric2323223's user avatar
0 votes
1 answer
579 views

using DNN to find out the pdf of a regression problem

When we use deep neural networks (DNNs) to solve a 1-dimention regression problem, we can approximate data distribution with the output of a DNN like the picture below. My question is that DNN does ...
Lion Lai's user avatar
  • 135
1 vote
0 answers
734 views

Splitting Probability Distributions Into Many Factors : The Deep Learning Book

In chapter 3, section 3.14: Structured Probabilistic Models in The Deep Learning Book the authors write this, with the following equation. Machine learning algorithms often involve probability ...
Leon Fedden's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers
704 views

How can an ensemble perform worse than all but one of its constituents?

I came across a very unusual situation: I trained 5 deep nets on a problem. 4 of the 5 had excellent in- and out-of-sample accuracy. I trained a classifier on the probability outputs of the 5 deep ...
William's user avatar
  • 743
53 votes
6 answers
43k views

Why is softmax output not a good uncertainty measure for Deep Learning models?

I've been working with Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for some time now, mostly on image data for semantic segmentation/instance segmentation. I've often visualized the softmax of the network ...
Honeybear's user avatar
  • 659
1 vote
1 answer
966 views

Conditional probability vs. likelihood - neural networks

In Goodfellow et al.'s Deep Learning, the authors write about recurrent neural networks on page 371: The total loss for a given sequence of $\mathbf{x}$ values paired with a sequence of $\mathbf{y}$...
Vivek Subramanian's user avatar
2 votes
1 answer
1k views

Normalizing probability of sequence by its length [closed]

Is there any commonly accepted method to derive probabilities of sequences that are not dependent on length? Background: I'm trying to generate sequences of symbols from the individual probabilities ...
loopbackbee's user avatar
5 votes
2 answers
2k views

Is graduate level probability theory (Durett) used often in ML, DL research?

I am interested in machine learning; I have a particular liking for RNNs. I have coursework in some areas of computer science, e.g., data mining, optimization for ML algorithms, deep learning, and an ...
Sam Weisenthal's user avatar
8 votes
1 answer
2k views

Why deep learning prefer the probability distribution with a sharp point?

I am reading Ian Goodfellow's book about deep learning and when it introduces exponential distribution, it says "In the context of deep learning, we often want to have a probability distribution with ...
Flamingo's user avatar
  • 201
1 vote
1 answer
171 views

Is verification with test data sufficient to rule out overfitting of neural network?

I have a dataset of N normalized features, and outcomes of the form 1.0 and 0.0 (win and loss), split 50/50 into training and test data (about 50000 samples each). I train the artificial neural ...
Brendan Hill's user avatar
4 votes
2 answers
8k views

Softmax Multiclass Classification

How do we associate a class to every output unit in a multilayer neural network architecture? I mean we assign the output to the class with maximum probability, but how do we decide which neuron ...
Hellboy's user avatar
  • 211
10 votes
4 answers
25k views

Neural networks output probability estimates?

Suppose my training data contains ~100 variables, and each example is tagged as "success" or "failure". I understand how a neural network can be used to try and predict success vs failure based on ...
Brendan Hill's user avatar
8 votes
1 answer
9k views

The effect of temperature in temperature sampling

I was reading this while I found: The high temperature sample displays greater linguistic variety, but the low temperature sample is more grammatically correct. Such is the world of temperature ...
Rafael's user avatar
  • 1,395
-1 votes
1 answer
123 views

Regularity of functions approximated with neural networks

Are there any papers pertaining to smoothness / regularity of functions that are approximated with artificial neural network?
Rohit Tripathy's user avatar
2 votes
0 answers
35 views

Comparing prediction distributions across many classes

I have a deep neural network with a Softmax classifier as the final layer. For each observation, the network produces a probability distribution over the 64 possible classes that the observation can ...
pir's user avatar
  • 5,146
0 votes
2 answers
2k views

Getting probability from Restricted Boltzmann Machine

Let's consider a trained Restricted Boltzmann Machine model. It was trained to maximize P(v). Since it's a generative model, how can I get a probability of an input vector which it is supposed to ...
Quittend's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers
54 views

Can we obtain probability distribution of a repeatable event using Neural Networks?

We have a data where input of every sample corresponds to how many times a dice is rolled. The output is the sum of all the outcomes. For instance the data is ...
ozgur's user avatar
  • 111
11 votes
2 answers
11k views

How to compute bits per character (BPC)?

In one of Alex Graves' papers (and several other authors as well) utilize the term bits per character (BPC). The paper that I am referencing here is "Generating Sequences with Recurrent Neural ...
Flipper's user avatar
  • 213
4 votes
2 answers
1k views

How to evaluate the quality of the probability distribution output of a classifier?

In a classification problem, I have trained a neural network which outputs class probabilities for a given input. For a new input, I now want to evaluate the "quality" of the neural network's ...
Karnivaurus's user avatar
  • 7,129
10 votes
2 answers
4k views

How is softmax unit derived and what is the implication?

I'm trying to understand why the softmax function is defined as such: $\frac{e^{z_{j}}} {\Sigma^{K}_{k=1}{e^{z_{k}}}} = \sigma(z)$ I understand how this normalizes the data and properly maps to some ...
Dr.Knowitall's user avatar
0 votes
1 answer
205 views

What is obtained from the product of a probability and a log probability ratio? [closed]

I'm looking at the commonly used artificial neural network model that has nodes and connections. Quick refresher A connection has a source and target node, and a weight. The output of the source ...
redcalx's user avatar
  • 878
1 vote
1 answer
125 views

Composition of bankruptcy probability and firm size

I'm using neural network for a binary classification problem of bankruptcy prediction using patternnet function in MATLAB, so i ...
user2991243's user avatar
  • 4,271
1 vote
0 answers
330 views

Hammersley–Clifford theorem

I'm reading this paper http://image.diku.dk/igel/paper/AItRBM-proof.pdf and I got stuck in page 4 with equation (1) that's based on Hammersley–Clifford theorem. I'm not good in reading set theory ...
Jack Twain's user avatar
  • 8,411
7 votes
1 answer
3k views

Combine several softmax output probabilities

I would like to combine the outputs of five neural networks, each with a softmax output layer of three classes each. A typical, example output is shown below:- where Figure 1 is the output of model 1,...
babelproofreader's user avatar
7 votes
4 answers
8k views

Methods & CRAN packages to predict probability using neural networks or others machine learning algorithms

I have a medical database containing 7 input variables (4 are binary) and a binary outcome variable (Survival: yes/no). My objective is to train and test an algorithm that predict probability of ...
user1594303's user avatar

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