Questions tagged [odds]

The odds of an event is the ratio of the probability that the event will happen (p) to the probability that it will not happen (1-p).

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17 views

Bonusball lottery question to have 1/150M probability [closed]

I follow guidance on wikipedia to calculate new lottery game i make up. I want chances to be 1:150,000,000 for jeck pot. I find two option so far: 72 numbers and play pick 6. that 1/156,238,908 two ...
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27 views

Interpreting Odds Ratio (in an Interaction)

I need advice on the correct interpretation of an odds ratio of an interaction term. Both the mixed-effect logistic regression output is below as well as the predicted odds values, which I calculate ...
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15 views

How do interpret the odds ratio of a coefficient?

Building a logistic model with odds ratios, I have run into question I simply cannot figure out. Normally, the odds ratio of a coefficient equals how much the odds of y = 1 multiplies when x ...
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27 views

How to create a hypothesis test comparing two odds?

Let's say I have two odds, how would I conduct a hypothesis test with a 5% significance level?
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Transforming Logit to percentage and interpretation (Logistic Regression coefficients)

I have made a batch of Logistic Regression models concerning trends of plant species in a certain area. The model is as follows: ...
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Player based betting odds VS analysis based odds

there are two kinds of betting sites Player based odds sites (thunderpick.com , csgopositive.com , ...) analysis based odds sited (1xbet , bwin , and almost all of the huge betting sites) when you ...
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42 views

How to calculate probability of rain today given today percentage

Given this: If the probability of rain in a given day is 0.65, what are the odds that it will rain today ? Would I setup as P(A) = it rains 65% But with the missing today forecast, what and how would ...
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47 views

Is a very large odds ratio from a contingency table an issue?

I computed an odds ratio from a contingency table (exposure/disease). My odds ratio ended up being 3329.044 which is ridiculously large. The reason it is large is because the prevalence of the disease ...
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1answer
79 views

Odds Ratio for Interaction Terms in GenLin in SPSS

I have a generalized linear model using SPSS to determine the relationship between certain variables (sex, race/ethnicity, geographical area, etc.) and whether or not they use a computer. Also, we ...
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Interpreting the Odds Ratio of a logistic regression model

I'm currently working on building a logistic regression model with the aim of predicting whether a given stock index will go up or down the following day. The table below shows the 3 models I've ran ...
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25 views

Double odds of one outcome, what should happen to the other outcomes?

When you have a binomial outcome, doubling the odds of one outcome halves the odds of the other outcome. E.g. if I have a weighted coin that doubles the odds of heads, it halves the odds of tails. If ...
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Determining the winner of a match given nothing but each team's winning percentage

Team A and Team B are playing a game against each other. This is the only information we have for each team: Team A has won 65% of their games this year Team B has won 59% of their games this year ...
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Are they cheating?

I'm trying to determine the probability that three students cheated on a recent exam. In a nutshell: What are the odds that three students sitting next to each other in a class of 22 could select (...
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55 views

How to interpret this logistic regression question?

This is from a DataCamp course. Try as I might, I can't seem to figure out how to break this down into explanations: The fitted coefficient β^1 from the medical school logistic regression model is 5....
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52 views

Estimating/translating odds ratio for different percentile intervals

I have a question regarding a translation in odds ratio curve OR(x). More specifically, let's say we have an OR(x) which we get using logistic regression. We look at the interval bounded with 25% and ...
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20 views

Chances, clarification [duplicate]

What are the odds Ive met my other half? Thing is I already know I have with this undeniable experience we had when our souls actually collided together as we were one. I just want to know what ...
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What probability or weight should I assign to X so that it has a Y% chance of being one of the 6 items selected out of a population of 12?

I have a population of 12 items, let's call them A through L. I'm going to be drawing 6 of those items out of the population without replacement. So you can't choose the same item twice. What I know ...
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What is the difference between standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and odds ratio (OR) from age matched case and controls?

My question refers specifically to comparisons of chronic diseases, say heart failure (HF), between a specific group of interest (eg, diabetics) and a reference group (non-diabetics). SMR is the ...
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1answer
86 views

Generate odds ratios across deciles / quantiles of an indpendent variable

With reference to the following figure from Bellomo et al., 2011: How exactly are the odds ratios across the deciles 'referenced against the 4th decile' calculated? My initial impression is that a ...
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Multiple non-independent tests, how to determine post-test odds

Let's say a patient receives two biomarker tests to help with diagnosis of a disease. Each test measures a different mechanism of the disease, but these two mechanisms are not independent, so the ...
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145 views

Betting odds with team win and draw

So a game can have 3 outcomes: Team 1 wins: 36% chance. Payout is 2.15 Team 2 wins: 34% chance. Payout is 2.45 Game is a draw: 30% chance. Payout is 2.66 How should I be thinking about making one or ...
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34 views

What is the relationship between the risk ratio and the weight of evidence? [duplicate]

I've been reading about risk ratios as typical measures in clinical settings. In the finance and credit literature, there is the weight of evidence (WoE) measure that is used to encode and study ...
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When Can I say odds ratio is important to analyze my data

Lets say in my data if I generate odds ratio between 2 variable A and B and get that the odds ratio is 2-5 is that a good thing to dive deep further or should I move to other relations .
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What are the selection odds

If 30 ice-cream sticks are numbered 1-30 and placed in a bowl, what are the odds that when picking two at a time, and then returning them to the bowl, any random pair will never be picked?
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Correct interpretation of odds ratio

I am wondering what the correct way of interpreting an odds ratio is. For example, suppose we have that the probability of success is $p=0.8$. Then, the odds ratio is: $$ \frac{p}{1-p} = \frac{0.8}{0....
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What are the % Odds?

NEED SOMEONE GOOD IN MATH! My father, my brother & myself all have AB- Blood Type. According to The Stanford School of Medicine Blood Center around 0.6% of the population has the ABneg blood type....
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Probability of picking winner of Survivor

I'm hoping for some help with determining a formula. My friends and I are watching the Australian Survivor show where 24 players are left on an island and a player is eliminated each episode until ...
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logistic regression log odds to probability issue in R

I have the following issue in R. I perform logistic regression in R: logitMod <- glm(dependent_var ~ var1, var2, varN, data=traindata, family=binomial()) ...
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Predicting elections: Probability distribution from betting odds and dependence

Suppose I want to find the percentage of votes each party will get in elections. I have following odds from betting companies. My first thought is to find the probability for each party achieving a ...
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Interpretation of two odds ratios derived from two different cohen's ds, comparability for meta-analysis?

I have a question regarding the conversion of cohen's d into odds ratio (OR) and the comparability of results from two different situations. I wonder if the ORs derived from the two situations can ...
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Logistic Regression, Advantage of GLM's : “*If the link produces additive effects, then we do not need constant variance*”

From this page: The bottom section : Summary of advantages of GLMs over traditional (OLS) regression contains the advantage If the link produces additive effects, then we do not need constant ...
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38 views

Why am I expected to take n/m attempts to complete something with m/n odds?

I assume there are various ways of explaining it, but what's the most intuitive (yes I understand that is a relative concept) Edit due to request: Obvious example: There is a 1/6 chance of rolling a ...
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105 views

How to calculate the odds of a highly improbable event?

I'd like to calculate the odds of a chess player A to gain 1000 Elo points in a year. Elo rating is an indicator of a player's strength at a given moment (wikipedia - elo). a) It doesn't matter what ...
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What is the interest to implement a statistics model in a groupby object instead of use the whole groups in a sample?

I saw this topic and also this one in dask documentation. I wonder what is the real interest to make a model for each group instead of considering a whole sample where all groups would appear? As far ...
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How to calculate CI for Odds ratio, Given Cohens d and ci for Cohens d( data is given as mean)

I have means(x) and Std deviations of 2(intervention and control) groups. I wanted to find Odds ratio with CI. I calculated the cohends d and CI first using,https://campbellcollaboration.org/escalc/...
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223 views

How to create a logistic regression model based on a two way table

question Given a table such as : $$ \begin{array}{ll|ll} & A & {} \\ & & 0 & 1 \\ \hline B& 1 & 44 & 27 \\ &0 & 443 & 95 \end{array} $$ If I ...
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538 views

If I have the implied probability of something how do I convert that into decimal odds? [closed]

I'm really struggling to find examples of converting implied probability back into European decimal odds. Say I have the implied probability of a horse to win at 66% of the book (no overrounds for ...
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993 views

Computation and Interpretation of Odds Ratio with continuous variables with interaction, in a binary logistic regression model

Question A binary logistic regression model has been fitted, with the following output; ...
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1answer
1k views

SPSS - Binary logistic regression: classification cutoff

Let's say I want to evaluate the predictive value of a continuous variable in the prediction of malignancy (event/status) of a tumour. Malignant = 1 Nonmalignant = 0 In SPSS, I can run a binary ...
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Difference in logits to difference in probabilities

a) Is there any way to prove that you cannot compute a probability difference when you know a logit difference? b)In general, is there some acceptable way to convert distances in logodds space to ...
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79 views

Betting with odds

I have a game where I can bet on two teams: One team has odds $1.7$ The other has $1.5$ I understood that the one that pays off $1.5$ has an higher probability of victory, so it pays less. But how ...
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129 views

Odd Number Probability

How do I calculate the probability of randomly picking a number in the range from 0 to 10000 where exactly two of the digits is odd. For ex 5001 or 1010 etc.. and how would I do the same calculation ...
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3 D6 pick 2 vs 2 D6 with 1 reroll

I was wondering if there is any statistical difference between rolling three 6 sided dice and taking the best two (looking for a 7 or higher) and rolling two 6 sided dice with the option to re-roll ...
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Is there a possibility to calculate the odds of the following scenario?

The following is a true situation that I faced and I was wondering if it is possible to roughly estimate the odds of it happening (like you sometime see rough estimations of "The odds of you winning ...
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1answer
92 views

Logistic regression with independent variable values less than 1

I have one independent variable which has values less than 1, and want to see how the odds of having a disease change when the independent variable increase by 0.1. I ran a binary logistic regression ...
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1answer
200 views

Crude odds ratio

I came across following definition of crude odds ratio in binary logistic regression: Crude odds ratio is when you have only one independent variable And also I heard: Crude odds ratio is when ...
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How are these odds created?

I've always been a bit baffled by how Vegas creates sports odds. Not so much the process of how did the oddsmakers decide that Option A has odds of X/Y (that obviously is fairly subjective and not ...
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108 views

Unbiased estimators of the log odds

In the book of Lehmann and Casella (2003) page 83, a random variable $X$ is distributed according to the binomial distribution $Bin(n,p)$, $n$ the number of trials and $p$ the success probability. ...
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429 views

Odds Ratio and gene mutations association

I have a simple (yet to me still trivial) problem to submit to you. I have a dataset of a group of patients affected by a disease, for which the presence of several genes mutations was inferred. Each ...
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34 views

What is a simple intuitive definition of Odd? [duplicate]

From what i read "The probability that an event will occur is the fraction of times you expect to see that event in many trials. The odds are defined as the probability that the event will occur ...