# Questions tagged [optimal-stopping]

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### State the overall alpha after interium analyses

Suppose a trial investigator wants to analyse the primary outcome (morning peak flow at 6 months) after the trial has been running for 1 year, 18 months and 2 years using alpha=0.05 each time, and ...
34 views

### Expectation Maximization (EM) stopping criterion

In several EM description (e.g., Theory and Use of the EM Algorithm By Maya R. Gupta and Yihua Chen) I read that two tipical stopping criterions for EM are defined on the difference between log-...
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Run config: ...
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### Problem of accepting a prize versus trying to get a better one

I don't know how to better formulate the general problem I am thinking about, let me try formulate an example. Assume you are playing a game with N rounds, and at each round the following happens: ...
21 views

### Stopping rule in a Monte Carlo simulation for a convergent sequence of unknown random variables

Given an unknown random variable $X: \Omega \mapsto [a,b] \subset \mathbb{R}$, let us imagine we want to estimate $\mathbb{E}(X)$. We can sample sequentially as many times as desired, let us say $m$ ...
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### ABC: Population Monte Carlo (PMC) convergence statistics?

I'm using the abcpmc code: Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC) Population Monte Carlo (PMC) implementation based on Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) with Particle Filtering techniques. described in ...
406 views

### The Fishing Problem

Suppose you want to go fishing at the nearby lake from 8AM-8PM. Due to overfishing, a law has been instated that says you may only catch one fish per day. When you catch a fish, you can choose to ...
79 views

### Neural network training: going backward to go forward?

I am working on CNN models which are intended to predict a protein's structure from its amino acid sequence. I have a decently large data set, 750 protein structures containing over 100,000 amino ...
38 views

### At which rank should I reasonably stop selecting interview candidates?

It seems that my problem could be classified as an "optimal stopping" problem, but I am unable to make much of this information. It is an important problem for my organisation (an NGO), in order to ...
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### loss function for stopping problem

I want to test different algorithms for predicting when a person stops an activity. The information available to the person (and the algorithms) consists of different performance criteria and other ...
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### How to choose iterations end automatically by exponential measure?

I have likelihood growing in the following way Suppose the curve is monotonical and never reaches maximum, like exponent. Is there a common way to choose when to stop iterations automatically? Just ...
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### “Approved” switch criterion for the Secretary problem

The secretary problem ( 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ) optimal stopping, says "stop and keep the best" in a randomized sequence of known length "k" where you can't select previously elements of the sequence. One ...
120 views

### Simulation of Secretary problem: optimal pool size given k=2?

Question: Is it incorrect to think there is a "sweet spot" where more samples slightly decreases the likelihood of a "Best pick" in the Secretary Problem? Details: The "Secretary Problem" from "...
2k views

### Why is it wrong to stop an A/B test before optimal sample size is reached?

I am in charge of presenting the results of A/B tests (run on website variations) at my company. We run the test for a month and then check the p-values at regular intervals until we reach ...
149 views

### Optimal decision process to estimate Markov chain limiting distribution

Suppose there is a irreducible, reversible Markov chain with known states $1,\ldots,N$ and unknown transition matrix $T_{ij}$ and unknown limiting distribution $\pi_i$. I am able to repeatedly ...
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### Prove $Z_n = X_n1_{n \le T} + Y_n1_{n+1\ge T}$ is a martingale

Given a filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathscr F, \{\mathscr F_n\}, \mathbb P)$, let $X = (X_n)_{n \in \mathbb N}$ and $Y = (Y_n)_{n \in \mathbb N}$ be $(\{\mathscr F_n\}, \mathbb P)-$...
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### Optimal stopping rule for sequential subsampling?

I have a set of ranking models added sequential one at a time. Where each model generate ranks for the sample. Finally the expected rank is done by taking the average rank from all models. scenario I ...
827 views

### Secretary Problem (Optimal Stopping) When Interviews Are Costly

The Secretary problem is an optimal stopping problem. Imagine hiring one secretary out of $n$ applicants, who are interviewed in random order and either rejected or hired on the spot (as soon as one ...
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### Stopping rule for chi-squared discretization algorithm

I developed an algorithm that uses the chi-squared test to perform supervised discretization of a continuous variable. I described it in the paper "ChiD-A Chi-Squared Discretization Algorithm" ...