Questions tagged [politics]
For questions about political data (such as approval ratings of US presidents) and political events (such as elections).
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1answer
67 views
Multicollinearity confusion
so for my master's thesis, I am examining the influence of union density (% of the workforce in a union) and top marginal tax rates on pre-tax CEO pay. These two independent variables are very highly ...
0
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1answer
314 views
Choosing the right stats textbook - graduate level
I want to do some self studying over the course of the summer. However, I find it hard to choose a good textbook amongst the plethora of possibilities.
I study political science at graduate level. So ...
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0answers
18 views
Inferring the racial voting trend along the lines of city type and geographical states?
My country, Malaysia, recently concluded the 14th General Election. The country has 10 states, and each states consist of parliamentary seats that that can categorized into urban, semi-urban and rural ...
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0answers
55 views
Multilevel Model or single level regression
in order to test the hypotheses (Impact of several IVs on individual candidate campaign behavior) for my bachelor thesis, I specified several multiple regression models. As the structure of my (...
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1answer
69 views
Multi level modelling, conceptual questions
I am studying national election campaigns of individual candidates by means of an elite survey (N around 500). Due to the nature of my country case, there are several contextual factors i would like ...
0
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1answer
14 views
Binary voting and the effect of a hypothetical policy change
Let's say that we know the outcome of a vote for choosing A or B and this is based on some demographic factors.
We estimate $ln\frac{P}{1-P}=\beta_0+\beta_1Dem_1+\beta_2Dem_2+\beta_3Dem_3$,
where $...
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0answers
151 views
Does my regression need a time-series component? If so, what?
I'm writing a study that analyses how the topic of debate changes depending on who is speaking next.
I have 8,000 debates of various lengths. I have a continous measurement of how different each set ...
0
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1answer
55 views
What should I study to understand this table?
I'm reading through a paper on economic factors and how they pertain to elections. Unfortunately I don't remember enough stats to fully understand how to read the tables being presented. Here is a ...
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0answers
27 views
How does replacing a categorical variable with associated numerical attributes change model flexibility?
Our data consists of 100 observations (people) of 5 variables. One of the variables is the political party each observation has voted for (parties A, B, C etc.)
As an alternative to party names/...
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1answer
39 views
Is a win-lose model for three Presidential primary candidates appropriate? Multinomial Logit model?
I have a dataset where each record represents a collection of variables for each of the counties in New York. Five variables represent the number of tweets in that geographic area for each candidate ...
2
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1answer
85 views
Election modeling : How is this a valid approach? [duplicate]
With the recent US presidential election, there seems to be a plethora of election "modelers" (e.g. 538). Given their "accuracy" of predicting the election outcome, I have come up with a couple of ...
23
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1answer
2k views
Explanation of what Nate Silver said about loess
In a question I asked recently, I was told that it was a big "no-no" to extrapolate with loess. But, in Nate Silver's most recent article on FiveThirtyEight.com he discussed using loess for making ...
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9answers
15k views
Probability of a single real-life future event: What does it mean when they say that “Hillary has a 75% chance of winning”?
As the election is a one time event, it is not an experiment that can be repeated. So exactly what does the statement "Hillary has a 75% chance of winning" technically mean? I am seeking a ...
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1answer
123 views
Does this qualify as an experiment?
I have to do an AP Statistics project, and I must conduct an experiment. I am having trouble as to whether or not my idea would qualify as an experiment:
To find out if students really know ...
2
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0answers
415 views
Comparing differences between overlapping groups
I am trying to analyse the differences between people who vote in the European Parliament (EP) elections and people who vote in national elections, based on the EES dataset (http://eeshomepage.net/). ...
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3answers
3k views
Is there a known bias with telephone polls in the U.S.?
I was looking at a WashingtonTimes/ABC poll, and the results breakdown, especially by age, seemed surprising to me. So I went looking for bias.
It said: "poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 11-14, ...
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1answer
52 views
Using Difference in Difference (DiD) to measure the impact of austerity measures?
I am trying to see if there is any causal relationship between the rise in vote share of France's leading extreme right-wing party Le Front National and the rate at which austerity measures took place ...
4
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2answers
149 views
Which statistical topics to teach in European Studies study programme?
Next year, I will teach statistics in bachelor study programme European studies (Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava). According to programme description,
...
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1answer
61 views
Where to find datasets related to US elections at the individual level? [closed]
I am currently looking for datasets that I can use to predict how an individual voter will vote in a US election.
Ideally, the dataset that I am looking for includes socioeconomic features such as ...
12
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1answer
247 views
How to calculate “Paths to the White House” using R?
I just came across this great analysis which is both interesting and beautiful visually:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html
I am curious how such ...
