# Questions tagged [politics]

For questions about political data (such as approval ratings of US presidents) and political events (such as elections).

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### Political Analysis - Chance that similar event happens in future [closed]

Part 1 Say there is a county (or state) that in each of the past 20 elections was 5% more (Blue, or Red) than another county or state. What is the probability that it would have the same 5% variant in ...
• 99
1 vote
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### Correct Distribution to Calculate Probability of Ballot Measure Success

The CA Secretary of State has historical records on ballot measures starting in 1912, and we're attempting to calculate probabilities for the 2024 ballot measures based on the historical average. Over ...
12 views

### How do I create a table showing my diminishing regression and analyze such a table?

I am currently working on a project for my graduate course on international conflict and peace, and in my project I ran a lagged, diminishing return regression regarding security assistance. My main ...
17 views

### What are approaches to model state-level estimates from a national estimate and state level correlates?

I want to model current levels of Presidential approval at the state level, based on (a) national poll (averages) of Presidential approval and (b) state level variables, particularly the percent votes ...
• 107
1 vote
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### What are cross-sectional election data?

I am currently writing a thesis and struggling with this problem: I have election data for N countries over a time period of 25 years. The elections were (obviously) held in different years. I need to ...
1 vote
30 views

### Clustering standard errors at individual and/or organisation level with fixed effects

So, I have a relatively large panel dataset (26,000 observations) with data on speech by individuals belonging to political parties. The data is grouped by individual-week (i.e. an observation for ...
• 11
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### How do I use a distribution as an independent variable in a regression?

I'm trying to build a regression model that predicts Trump's vote share in a county in the 2016 election, given demographic data about that county. One of the demographic variables I would like to use ...
• 29
1 vote
28 views

### Commonly-used Predictor Function?

I was recently taking a look at some political projections (similar to the ones published by 538), and I am wondering about a particular function used to calculate the likelihood of a given party ...
• 111
92 views

### Electoral college simulation using SQL Server

As I'm sure will be apparent to most here, I'm not a statistician or a programmer, but one of my hobbies is politics. I've created a (very simple) USA electoral college simulation, seen below. The ...
141 views

### Multicollinearity confusion

so for my master's thesis, I am examining the influence of union density (% of the workforce in a union) and top marginal tax rates on pre-tax CEO pay. These two independent variables are very highly ...
• 21
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### Choosing the right stats textbook - graduate level

I want to do some self studying over the course of the summer. However, I find it hard to choose a good textbook amongst the plethora of possibilities. I study political science at graduate level. So ...
1 vote
121 views

### Multi level modelling, conceptual questions

I am studying national election campaigns of individual candidates by means of an elite survey (N around 500). Due to the nature of my country case, there are several contextual factors i would like ...
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### Is there a known bias with telephone polls in the U.S.?

I was looking at a WashingtonTimes/ABC poll, and the results breakdown, especially by age, seemed surprising to me. So I went looking for bias. It said: "poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 11-14, ...
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### Using Difference in Difference (DiD) to measure the impact of austerity measures?

I am trying to see if there is any causal relationship between the rise in vote share of France's leading extreme right-wing party Le Front National and the rate at which austerity measures took place ...
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### Which statistical topics to teach in European Studies study programme?

Next year, I will teach statistics in bachelor study programme European studies (Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava). According to programme description, ...
1 vote
113 views

### Where to find datasets related to US elections at the individual level? [closed]

I am currently looking for datasets that I can use to predict how an individual voter will vote in a US election. Ideally, the dataset that I am looking for includes socioeconomic features such as ...
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