Questions tagged [politics]
For questions about political data (such as approval ratings of US presidents) and political events (such as elections).
21
questions
1
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0answers
17 views
Commonly-used Predictor Function?
I was recently taking a look at some political projections (similar to the ones published by 538), and I am wondering about a particular function used to calculate the likelihood of a given party ...
3
votes
1answer
31 views
Electoral college simulation using SQL Server
As I'm sure will be apparent to most here, I'm not a statistician or a programmer, but one of my hobbies is politics. I've created a (very simple) USA electoral college simulation, seen below.
The ...
1
vote
1answer
80 views
Multicollinearity confusion
so for my master's thesis, I am examining the influence of union density (% of the workforce in a union) and top marginal tax rates on pre-tax CEO pay. These two independent variables are very highly ...
0
votes
1answer
1k views
Choosing the right stats textbook - graduate level
I want to do some self studying over the course of the summer. However, I find it hard to choose a good textbook amongst the plethora of possibilities.
I study political science at graduate level. So ...
1
vote
0answers
81 views
Multilevel Model or single level regression
in order to test the hypotheses (Impact of several IVs on individual candidate campaign behavior) for my bachelor thesis, I specified several multiple regression models. As the structure of my (...
1
vote
1answer
70 views
Multi level modelling, conceptual questions
I am studying national election campaigns of individual candidates by means of an elite survey (N around 500). Due to the nature of my country case, there are several contextual factors i would like ...
0
votes
1answer
15 views
Binary voting and the effect of a hypothetical policy change
Let's say that we know the outcome of a vote for choosing A or B and this is based on some demographic factors.
We estimate $ln\frac{P}{1-P}=\beta_0+\beta_1Dem_1+\beta_2Dem_2+\beta_3Dem_3$,
where $...
1
vote
0answers
153 views
Does my regression need a time-series component? If so, what?
I'm writing a study that analyses how the topic of debate changes depending on who is speaking next.
I have 8,000 debates of various lengths. I have a continous measurement of how different each set ...
0
votes
1answer
62 views
What should I study to understand this table?
I'm reading through a paper on economic factors and how they pertain to elections. Unfortunately I don't remember enough stats to fully understand how to read the tables being presented. Here is a ...
1
vote
0answers
27 views
How does replacing a categorical variable with associated numerical attributes change model flexibility?
Our data consists of 100 observations (people) of 5 variables. One of the variables is the political party each observation has voted for (parties A, B, C etc.)
As an alternative to party names/...
1
vote
1answer
43 views
Is a win-lose model for three Presidential primary candidates appropriate? Multinomial Logit model?
I have a dataset where each record represents a collection of variables for each of the counties in New York. Five variables represent the number of tweets in that geographic area for each candidate ...
2
votes
1answer
89 views
Election modeling : How is this a valid approach? [duplicate]
With the recent US presidential election, there seems to be a plethora of election "modelers" (e.g. 538). Given their "accuracy" of predicting the election outcome, I have come up with a couple of ...
23
votes
1answer
2k views
Explanation of what Nate Silver said about loess
In a question I asked recently, I was told that it was a big "no-no" to extrapolate with loess. But, in Nate Silver's most recent article on FiveThirtyEight.com he discussed using loess for making ...
80
votes
9answers
15k views
Probability of a single real-life future event: What does it mean when they say that “Hillary has a 75% chance of winning”?
As the election is a one time event, it is not an experiment that can be repeated. So exactly what does the statement "Hillary has a 75% chance of winning" technically mean? I am seeking a ...
0
votes
1answer
125 views
Does this qualify as an experiment?
I have to do an AP Statistics project, and I must conduct an experiment. I am having trouble as to whether or not my idea would qualify as an experiment:
To find out if students really know ...
2
votes
0answers
498 views
Comparing differences between overlapping groups
I am trying to analyse the differences between people who vote in the European Parliament (EP) elections and people who vote in national elections, based on the EES dataset (http://eeshomepage.net/). ...
11
votes
3answers
4k views
Is there a known bias with telephone polls in the U.S.?
I was looking at a WashingtonTimes/ABC poll, and the results breakdown, especially by age, seemed surprising to me. So I went looking for bias.
It said: "poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 11-14, ...
0
votes
1answer
52 views
Using Difference in Difference (DiD) to measure the impact of austerity measures?
I am trying to see if there is any causal relationship between the rise in vote share of France's leading extreme right-wing party Le Front National and the rate at which austerity measures took place ...
5
votes
2answers
150 views
Which statistical topics to teach in European Studies study programme?
Next year, I will teach statistics in bachelor study programme European studies (Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava). According to programme description,
...
1
vote
1answer
67 views
Where to find datasets related to US elections at the individual level? [closed]
I am currently looking for datasets that I can use to predict how an individual voter will vote in a US election.
Ideally, the dataset that I am looking for includes socioeconomic features such as ...
12
votes
1answer
253 views
How to calculate “Paths to the White House” using R?
I just came across this great analysis which is both interesting and beautiful visually:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html
I am curious how such ...
