Questions tagged [politics]

For questions about political data (such as approval ratings of US presidents) and political events (such as elections).

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Political Analysis - Chance that similar event happens in future [closed]

Part 1 Say there is a county (or state) that in each of the past 20 elections was 5% more (Blue, or Red) than another county or state. What is the probability that it would have the same 5% variant in ...
Mayo's user avatar
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1 vote
1 answer

Correct Distribution to Calculate Probability of Ballot Measure Success

The CA Secretary of State has historical records on ballot measures starting in 1912, and we're attempting to calculate probabilities for the 2024 ballot measures based on the historical average. Over ...
Andrew Pederson's user avatar
0 votes
0 answers

How do I create a table showing my diminishing regression and analyze such a table?

I am currently working on a project for my graduate course on international conflict and peace, and in my project I ran a lagged, diminishing return regression regarding security assistance. My main ...
Kenzie De Keyser's user avatar
2 votes
0 answers

What are approaches to model state-level estimates from a national estimate and state level correlates?

I want to model current levels of Presidential approval at the state level, based on (a) national poll (averages) of Presidential approval and (b) state level variables, particularly the percent votes ...
stat_is_quo's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers

What are cross-sectional election data?

I am currently writing a thesis and struggling with this problem: I have election data for N countries over a time period of 25 years. The elections were (obviously) held in different years. I need to ...
clara_____'s user avatar
1 vote
0 answers

Clustering standard errors at individual and/or organisation level with fixed effects

So, I have a relatively large panel dataset (26,000 observations) with data on speech by individuals belonging to political parties. The data is grouped by individual-week (i.e. an observation for ...
MCC89's user avatar
  • 11
2 votes
1 answer

How do I use a distribution as an independent variable in a regression?

I'm trying to build a regression model that predicts Trump's vote share in a county in the 2016 election, given demographic data about that county. One of the demographic variables I would like to use ...
KD89042's user avatar
  • 29
1 vote
0 answers

Commonly-used Predictor Function?

I was recently taking a look at some political projections (similar to the ones published by 538), and I am wondering about a particular function used to calculate the likelihood of a given party ...
apizzimenti's user avatar
4 votes
1 answer

Electoral college simulation using SQL Server

As I'm sure will be apparent to most here, I'm not a statistician or a programmer, but one of my hobbies is politics. I've created a (very simple) USA electoral college simulation, seen below. The ...
user269144's user avatar
2 votes
1 answer

Multicollinearity confusion

so for my master's thesis, I am examining the influence of union density (% of the workforce in a union) and top marginal tax rates on pre-tax CEO pay. These two independent variables are very highly ...
Jordan's user avatar
  • 21
0 votes
1 answer

Choosing the right stats textbook - graduate level

I want to do some self studying over the course of the summer. However, I find it hard to choose a good textbook amongst the plethora of possibilities. I study political science at graduate level. So ...
1 vote
1 answer

Multi level modelling, conceptual questions

I am studying national election campaigns of individual candidates by means of an elite survey (N around 500). Due to the nature of my country case, there are several contextual factors i would like ...
persephone's user avatar
0 votes
1 answer

Binary voting and the effect of a hypothetical policy change

Let's say that we know the outcome of a vote for choosing A or B and this is based on some demographic factors. We estimate $ln\frac{P}{1-P}=\beta_0+\beta_1Dem_1+\beta_2Dem_2+\beta_3Dem_3$, where $...
inquirius's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers

Does my regression need a time-series component? If so, what?

I'm writing a study that analyses how the topic of debate changes depending on who is speaking next. I have 8,000 debates of various lengths. I have a continous measurement of how different each set ...
James's user avatar
  • 25
0 votes
1 answer

What should I study to understand this table?

I'm reading through a paper on economic factors and how they pertain to elections. Unfortunately I don't remember enough stats to fully understand how to read the tables being presented. Here is a ...
Motie Mediator's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers

How does replacing a categorical variable with associated numerical attributes change model flexibility?

Our data consists of 100 observations (people) of 5 variables. One of the variables is the political party each observation has voted for (parties A, B, C etc.) As an alternative to party names/...
Henry Cann's user avatar
1 vote
1 answer

Is a win-lose model for three Presidential primary candidates appropriate? Multinomial Logit model?

I have a dataset where each record represents a collection of variables for each of the counties in New York. Five variables represent the number of tweets in that geographic area for each candidate ...
bwp8nt's user avatar
  • 121
2 votes
1 answer

Election modeling : How is this a valid approach? [duplicate]

With the recent US presidential election, there seems to be a plethora of election "modelers" (e.g. 538). Given their "accuracy" of predicting the election outcome, I have come up with a couple of ...
irritable_phd_syndrome's user avatar
23 votes
1 answer

Explanation of what Nate Silver said about loess

In a question I asked recently, I was told that it was a big "no-no" to extrapolate with loess. But, in Nate Silver's most recent article on he discussed using loess for making ...
a.powell's user avatar
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84 votes
9 answers

Probability of a single real-life future event: What does it mean when they say that "Hillary has a 75% chance of winning"?

As the election is a one time event, it is not an experiment that can be repeated. So exactly what does the statement "Hillary has a 75% chance of winning" technically mean? I am seeking a ...
pitosalas's user avatar
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0 votes
1 answer

Does this qualify as an experiment?

I have to do an AP Statistics project, and I must conduct an experiment. I am having trouble as to whether or not my idea would qualify as an experiment: To find out if students really know ...
Vincent's user avatar
3 votes
2 answers

Comparing differences between overlapping groups

I am trying to analyse the differences between people who vote in the European Parliament (EP) elections and people who vote in national elections, based on the EES dataset$^\dagger$. The objective is ...
Daniel's user avatar
  • 31
12 votes
3 answers

Is there a known bias with telephone polls in the U.S.?

I was looking at a WashingtonTimes/ABC poll, and the results breakdown, especially by age, seemed surprising to me. So I went looking for bias. It said: "poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 11-14, ...
Darren Cook's user avatar
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0 votes
1 answer

Using Difference in Difference (DiD) to measure the impact of austerity measures?

I am trying to see if there is any causal relationship between the rise in vote share of France's leading extreme right-wing party Le Front National and the rate at which austerity measures took place ...
DannyGU's user avatar
  • 33
5 votes
2 answers

Which statistical topics to teach in European Studies study programme?

Next year, I will teach statistics in bachelor study programme European studies (Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava). According to programme description, ...
1 vote
1 answer

Where to find datasets related to US elections at the individual level? [closed]

I am currently looking for datasets that I can use to predict how an individual voter will vote in a US election. Ideally, the dataset that I am looking for includes socioeconomic features such as ...
Berk U.'s user avatar
  • 4,775
12 votes
1 answer

How to calculate "Paths to the White House" using R?

I just came across this great analysis which is both interesting and beautiful visually: I am curious how such ...
Tal Galili's user avatar
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