Questions tagged [politics]

For questions about political data (such as approval ratings of US presidents) and political events (such as elections).

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69 views

Multicollinearity confusion

so for my master's thesis, I am examining the influence of union density (% of the workforce in a union) and top marginal tax rates on pre-tax CEO pay. These two independent variables are very highly ...
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1answer
482 views

Choosing the right stats textbook - graduate level

I want to do some self studying over the course of the summer. However, I find it hard to choose a good textbook amongst the plethora of possibilities. I study political science at graduate level. So ...
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0answers
59 views

Multilevel Model or single level regression

in order to test the hypotheses (Impact of several IVs on individual candidate campaign behavior) for my bachelor thesis, I specified several multiple regression models. As the structure of my (...
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1answer
69 views

Multi level modelling, conceptual questions

I am studying national election campaigns of individual candidates by means of an elite survey (N around 500). Due to the nature of my country case, there are several contextual factors i would like ...
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1answer
15 views

Binary voting and the effect of a hypothetical policy change

Let's say that we know the outcome of a vote for choosing A or B and this is based on some demographic factors. We estimate $ln\frac{P}{1-P}=\beta_0+\beta_1Dem_1+\beta_2Dem_2+\beta_3Dem_3$, where $...
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0answers
151 views

Does my regression need a time-series component? If so, what?

I'm writing a study that analyses how the topic of debate changes depending on who is speaking next. I have 8,000 debates of various lengths. I have a continous measurement of how different each set ...
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1answer
56 views

What should I study to understand this table?

I'm reading through a paper on economic factors and how they pertain to elections. Unfortunately I don't remember enough stats to fully understand how to read the tables being presented. Here is a ...
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0answers
27 views

How does replacing a categorical variable with associated numerical attributes change model flexibility?

Our data consists of 100 observations (people) of 5 variables. One of the variables is the political party each observation has voted for (parties A, B, C etc.) As an alternative to party names/...
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1answer
39 views

Is a win-lose model for three Presidential primary candidates appropriate? Multinomial Logit model?

I have a dataset where each record represents a collection of variables for each of the counties in New York. Five variables represent the number of tweets in that geographic area for each candidate ...
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1answer
86 views

Election modeling : How is this a valid approach? [duplicate]

With the recent US presidential election, there seems to be a plethora of election "modelers" (e.g. 538). Given their "accuracy" of predicting the election outcome, I have come up with a couple of ...
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1answer
2k views

Explanation of what Nate Silver said about loess

In a question I asked recently, I was told that it was a big "no-no" to extrapolate with loess. But, in Nate Silver's most recent article on FiveThirtyEight.com he discussed using loess for making ...
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9answers
15k views

Probability of a single real-life future event: What does it mean when they say that “Hillary has a 75% chance of winning”?

As the election is a one time event, it is not an experiment that can be repeated. So exactly what does the statement "Hillary has a 75% chance of winning" technically mean? I am seeking a ...
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1answer
123 views

Does this qualify as an experiment?

I have to do an AP Statistics project, and I must conduct an experiment. I am having trouble as to whether or not my idea would qualify as an experiment: To find out if students really know ...
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0answers
445 views

Comparing differences between overlapping groups

I am trying to analyse the differences between people who vote in the European Parliament (EP) elections and people who vote in national elections, based on the EES dataset (http://eeshomepage.net/). ...
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3answers
3k views

Is there a known bias with telephone polls in the U.S.?

I was looking at a WashingtonTimes/ABC poll, and the results breakdown, especially by age, seemed surprising to me. So I went looking for bias. It said: "poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 11-14, ...
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1answer
52 views

Using Difference in Difference (DiD) to measure the impact of austerity measures?

I am trying to see if there is any causal relationship between the rise in vote share of France's leading extreme right-wing party Le Front National and the rate at which austerity measures took place ...
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2answers
150 views

Which statistical topics to teach in European Studies study programme?

Next year, I will teach statistics in bachelor study programme European studies (Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava). According to programme description, ...
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1answer
61 views

Where to find datasets related to US elections at the individual level? [closed]

I am currently looking for datasets that I can use to predict how an individual voter will vote in a US election. Ideally, the dataset that I am looking for includes socioeconomic features such as ...
12
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1answer
248 views

How to calculate “Paths to the White House” using R?

I just came across this great analysis which is both interesting and beautiful visually: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html I am curious how such ...