Questions tagged [politics]

For questions about political data (such as approval ratings of US presidents) and political events (such as elections).

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What social/economic/political domains are typ. easier-harder to forecast ? Are there benchmark estimates of accuracy for such time series forecasts?

For the report of the results from the Behavioral and Social Science Forecasting Collaborative Tournament I organized during the first COVID year, our team is trying to identify good benchmarks for ...
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Analyzing the relationship between language and poll data over time - R

I'm looking at linguistic markers (e.g. use of first-person plural pronouns “we,” “us,” “our,” “ours”) in political speeches of two candidates over time. One hypothesis is that the use of those ...
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What are cross-sectional election data?

I am currently writing a thesis and struggling with this problem: I have election data for N countries over a time period of 25 years. The elections were (obviously) held in different years. I need to ...
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Clustering standard errors at individual and/or organisation level with fixed effects

So, I have a relatively large panel dataset (26,000 observations) with data on speech by individuals belonging to political parties. The data is grouped by individual-week (i.e. an observation for ...
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How do I use a distribution as an independent variable in a regression?

I'm trying to build a regression model that predicts Trump's vote share in a county in the 2016 election, given demographic data about that county. One of the demographic variables I would like to use ...
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Commonly-used Predictor Function?

I was recently taking a look at some political projections (similar to the ones published by 538), and I am wondering about a particular function used to calculate the likelihood of a given party ...
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4 votes
1 answer
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Electoral college simulation using SQL Server

As I'm sure will be apparent to most here, I'm not a statistician or a programmer, but one of my hobbies is politics. I've created a (very simple) USA electoral college simulation, seen below. The ...
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2 votes
1 answer
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Multicollinearity confusion

so for my master's thesis, I am examining the influence of union density (% of the workforce in a union) and top marginal tax rates on pre-tax CEO pay. These two independent variables are very highly ...
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Choosing the right stats textbook - graduate level

I want to do some self studying over the course of the summer. However, I find it hard to choose a good textbook amongst the plethora of possibilities. I study political science at graduate level. So ...
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Multi level modelling, conceptual questions

I am studying national election campaigns of individual candidates by means of an elite survey (N around 500). Due to the nature of my country case, there are several contextual factors i would like ...
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Binary voting and the effect of a hypothetical policy change

Let's say that we know the outcome of a vote for choosing A or B and this is based on some demographic factors. We estimate $ln\frac{P}{1-P}=\beta_0+\beta_1Dem_1+\beta_2Dem_2+\beta_3Dem_3$, where $...
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Does my regression need a time-series component? If so, what?

I'm writing a study that analyses how the topic of debate changes depending on who is speaking next. I have 8,000 debates of various lengths. I have a continous measurement of how different each set ...
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What should I study to understand this table?

I'm reading through a paper on economic factors and how they pertain to elections. Unfortunately I don't remember enough stats to fully understand how to read the tables being presented. Here is a ...
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How does replacing a categorical variable with associated numerical attributes change model flexibility?

Our data consists of 100 observations (people) of 5 variables. One of the variables is the political party each observation has voted for (parties A, B, C etc.) As an alternative to party names/...
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1 answer
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Is a win-lose model for three Presidential primary candidates appropriate? Multinomial Logit model?

I have a dataset where each record represents a collection of variables for each of the counties in New York. Five variables represent the number of tweets in that geographic area for each candidate ...
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2 votes
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Election modeling : How is this a valid approach? [duplicate]

With the recent US presidential election, there seems to be a plethora of election "modelers" (e.g. 538). Given their "accuracy" of predicting the election outcome, I have come up with a couple of ...
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23 votes
1 answer
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Explanation of what Nate Silver said about loess

In a question I asked recently, I was told that it was a big "no-no" to extrapolate with loess. But, in Nate Silver's most recent article on FiveThirtyEight.com he discussed using loess for making ...
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Probability of a single real-life future event: What does it mean when they say that "Hillary has a 75% chance of winning"?

As the election is a one time event, it is not an experiment that can be repeated. So exactly what does the statement "Hillary has a 75% chance of winning" technically mean? I am seeking a ...
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Does this qualify as an experiment?

I have to do an AP Statistics project, and I must conduct an experiment. I am having trouble as to whether or not my idea would qualify as an experiment: To find out if students really know ...
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2 votes
1 answer
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Comparing differences between overlapping groups

I am trying to analyse the differences between people who vote in the European Parliament (EP) elections and people who vote in national elections, based on the EES dataset (http://eeshomepage.net/). ...
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11 votes
3 answers
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Is there a known bias with telephone polls in the U.S.?

I was looking at a WashingtonTimes/ABC poll, and the results breakdown, especially by age, seemed surprising to me. So I went looking for bias. It said: "poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 11-14, ...
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Using Difference in Difference (DiD) to measure the impact of austerity measures?

I am trying to see if there is any causal relationship between the rise in vote share of France's leading extreme right-wing party Le Front National and the rate at which austerity measures took place ...
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5 votes
2 answers
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Which statistical topics to teach in European Studies study programme?

Next year, I will teach statistics in bachelor study programme European studies (Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava). According to programme description, ...
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Where to find datasets related to US elections at the individual level? [closed]

I am currently looking for datasets that I can use to predict how an individual voter will vote in a US election. Ideally, the dataset that I am looking for includes socioeconomic features such as ...
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12 votes
1 answer
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How to calculate "Paths to the White House" using R?

I just came across this great analysis which is both interesting and beautiful visually: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html I am curious how such ...
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