Stack Exchange Network

Stack Exchange network consists of 175 Q&A communities including Stack Overflow, the largest, most trusted online community for developers to learn, share their knowledge, and build their careers.

Visit Stack Exchange

Questions tagged [politics]

For questions about political data (such as approval ratings of US presidents) and political events (such as elections).

1
vote
1answer
67 views

Multicollinearity confusion

so for my master's thesis, I am examining the influence of union density (% of the workforce in a union) and top marginal tax rates on pre-tax CEO pay. These two independent variables are very highly ...
0
votes
1answer
314 views

Choosing the right stats textbook - graduate level

I want to do some self studying over the course of the summer. However, I find it hard to choose a good textbook amongst the plethora of possibilities. I study political science at graduate level. So ...
0
votes
0answers
18 views

Inferring the racial voting trend along the lines of city type and geographical states?

My country, Malaysia, recently concluded the 14th General Election. The country has 10 states, and each states consist of parliamentary seats that that can categorized into urban, semi-urban and rural ...
1
vote
0answers
55 views

Multilevel Model or single level regression

in order to test the hypotheses (Impact of several IVs on individual candidate campaign behavior) for my bachelor thesis, I specified several multiple regression models. As the structure of my (...
1
vote
1answer
69 views

Multi level modelling, conceptual questions

I am studying national election campaigns of individual candidates by means of an elite survey (N around 500). Due to the nature of my country case, there are several contextual factors i would like ...
0
votes
1answer
14 views

Binary voting and the effect of a hypothetical policy change

Let's say that we know the outcome of a vote for choosing A or B and this is based on some demographic factors. We estimate $ln\frac{P}{1-P}=\beta_0+\beta_1Dem_1+\beta_2Dem_2+\beta_3Dem_3$, where $...
1
vote
0answers
151 views

Does my regression need a time-series component? If so, what?

I'm writing a study that analyses how the topic of debate changes depending on who is speaking next. I have 8,000 debates of various lengths. I have a continous measurement of how different each set ...
0
votes
1answer
55 views

What should I study to understand this table?

I'm reading through a paper on economic factors and how they pertain to elections. Unfortunately I don't remember enough stats to fully understand how to read the tables being presented. Here is a ...
1
vote
0answers
27 views

How does replacing a categorical variable with associated numerical attributes change model flexibility?

Our data consists of 100 observations (people) of 5 variables. One of the variables is the political party each observation has voted for (parties A, B, C etc.) As an alternative to party names/...
1
vote
1answer
39 views

Is a win-lose model for three Presidential primary candidates appropriate? Multinomial Logit model?

I have a dataset where each record represents a collection of variables for each of the counties in New York. Five variables represent the number of tweets in that geographic area for each candidate ...
2
votes
1answer
85 views

Election modeling : How is this a valid approach? [duplicate]

With the recent US presidential election, there seems to be a plethora of election "modelers" (e.g. 538). Given their "accuracy" of predicting the election outcome, I have come up with a couple of ...
23
votes
1answer
2k views

Explanation of what Nate Silver said about loess

In a question I asked recently, I was told that it was a big "no-no" to extrapolate with loess. But, in Nate Silver's most recent article on FiveThirtyEight.com he discussed using loess for making ...
79
votes
9answers
15k views

Probability of a single real-life future event: What does it mean when they say that “Hillary has a 75% chance of winning”?

As the election is a one time event, it is not an experiment that can be repeated. So exactly what does the statement "Hillary has a 75% chance of winning" technically mean? I am seeking a ...
0
votes
1answer
123 views

Does this qualify as an experiment?

I have to do an AP Statistics project, and I must conduct an experiment. I am having trouble as to whether or not my idea would qualify as an experiment: To find out if students really know ...
2
votes
0answers
415 views

Comparing differences between overlapping groups

I am trying to analyse the differences between people who vote in the European Parliament (EP) elections and people who vote in national elections, based on the EES dataset (http://eeshomepage.net/). ...
11
votes
3answers
3k views

Is there a known bias with telephone polls in the U.S.?

I was looking at a WashingtonTimes/ABC poll, and the results breakdown, especially by age, seemed surprising to me. So I went looking for bias. It said: "poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 11-14, ...
0
votes
1answer
52 views

Using Difference in Difference (DiD) to measure the impact of austerity measures?

I am trying to see if there is any causal relationship between the rise in vote share of France's leading extreme right-wing party Le Front National and the rate at which austerity measures took place ...
4
votes
2answers
149 views

Which statistical topics to teach in European Studies study programme?

Next year, I will teach statistics in bachelor study programme European studies (Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava). According to programme description, ...
1
vote
1answer
61 views

Where to find datasets related to US elections at the individual level? [closed]

I am currently looking for datasets that I can use to predict how an individual voter will vote in a US election. Ideally, the dataset that I am looking for includes socioeconomic features such as ...
12
votes
1answer
247 views

How to calculate “Paths to the White House” using R?

I just came across this great analysis which is both interesting and beautiful visually: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html I am curious how such ...