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Questions tagged [polling]

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1answer
11 views

Fluctuation and standard errors in election polling

British politics is very interesting lately; particularly so since Corbyn was elected Labour leader in 2015, and later with Brexit happening and so on. Since then, multiple events have had dramatic ...
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1answer
27 views

Question about Bayesian Polling

A professor in the United States reads a headline stating that only 36% of Americans have ever been outside the U.S. She believes the headline to be true and would like to know whether the 30 pupils ...
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1answer
45 views

Linear regression vs contingency table for poll results

Let's assume we made a survey where participants had to evaluate us on a scale from 1 to 5. We want to analyse how different variables (let's say gender or age for instance) have an effect on the ...
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0answers
9 views

How to estimate a polling result from a given sample?

I need to estimate people's idea on some topic and I only got information from a specific group of people. The procedure that generate the group could be biased. e.g. 47% of the sample support the ...
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1answer
17 views

Do pollsters use independent samples?

Is it a common practice for political pollsters to use random independent samples to conduct their polls?
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0answers
99 views

Margin of Error for poll that allows selecting multiple options?

I have a poll with a known sample size (let's say n=1000) which has results that look like this: ...
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0answers
94 views

Statistical significance of a difference between poll percentages with a small sample?

Analyzing my company’s internal survey results, I was stuck with calculating statistical difference between percentages. I usually used a Z-test as described below, but I am not sure whether it is ...
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0answers
29 views

Differentiating between a negative response and lack of response

Consider a setting where we are trying to determine a set of user's preferences over products. To do so, we present users with ads and keep track of which ads for which products they click on. Over ...
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1answer
50 views

How to decide the number of options to give to people in a poll? (for opinion based, subjective contexts)

Just to be clear, this question is open ended on purpose, I am fine with(or even prefer to) being pointed to a few research papers, and proper areas related to this subject. I am not sure what I am ...
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2answers
229 views

What is difference between statistical bias and common sense bias [closed]

Colloquially, a statistic may be described as “biased” if it misrepresents whatever it’s intended to represent, whether or not it was more likely a priori to err in one direction or another. (This ...
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1answer
61 views

What do poll probabilities actually mean [duplicate]

I don't understand what the probabilities for an election actually mean. I was reading this piece but I still don't get it. What could it possibly mean to say that candidate A has 70% chance of ...
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0answers
257 views

Margin of Error in Stratified Random Sampling of New York Times stories

This table shows the number of stories reported by the New York Times on Afghanistan in which a US government official was quoted. Each row does not represent all stories but, rather, a sample of ...
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2answers
334 views

Can Margin of Error be calculated from previous accuracy?

I'm a complete stats newbie, but I got into a discussion on the following article about polling accuracy. The author looks through the historic accuracy of UK pollsters, then finds the average ...
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1answer
46 views

Opinion polls during which voters are allowed to see accumulated intermediate result

Has there been any systematic research on the opinion polls in which each voter can see the accumulated result up to the time of his/her vote? Many online polls show the live result, and new voters ...
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0answers
75 views

How likely is strong consistence among opinion polls?

With the upcoming French presidential election (first round on 23th of April 2017) many opinion polls are ordered and presented in the news. There are several initiatives to track the results of these ...
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2answers
80 views

Sensitivity analysis of election poll correlation

I am interested in why the 2016 presidential election polls did a poor job in forecasting the result. One hypothesis I heard is that many of the polls conducted before the election were correlated, ...
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2answers
1k views

Calculating the probability of someone winning from a poll

Say I have a poll of 100 people for an upcoming election, which is fairly representative of the population. 45 say they will vote for candidate A, 30 for candidate B, and 25 for candidate C. What is ...
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1answer
135 views

“Agreement Score”

I have a dataset of legislative roll call votes. This dataset contains the votes of all members of Congress during on specific period (in this case, 2 years). The data is mounted according this ...
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1answer
491 views

How to interpret margin of error in a non-binary poll?

I know what margin of error means in a poll with two choices. For example, if a poll estimates two candidates are to have 45% and 55% of the vote respectively and the margin of error is 4%, then we ...
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1answer
94 views

Accuracy of election polls [duplicate]

There are a number of questions about election polls and margin of error that have been covered in CrossValidated over the years, including one regarding the 2016 US election polls. That one however ...
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1answer
35 views

Adjusting for bias in attempted-random sample method

In order to better understand some of the polling for the presidential election, I created a simple JS program which runs iterations of sample-based polls to prove just how accurate things like margin ...
3
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1answer
99 views

UK Exit EU Poll

Since it is the topic of the day, let's turn it into a statistical question. Preliminary polls are showing 52 to 48 in favor of staying in the EU in terms of vote. However bookies are giving a 80%+ ...
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3answers
3k views

Is there a known bias with telephone polls in the U.S.?

I was looking at a WashingtonTimes/ABC poll, and the results breakdown, especially by age, seemed surprising to me. So I went looking for bias. It said: "poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 11-14, ...
4
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0answers
263 views

Better prediction models with polling data?

I've been working on a project on measuring polls' accuracy in complex contexts (more than two candidates) where there are a small number of inaccurate polling data points. I thought it would be the ...
4
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1answer
91 views

Filtering random guessers from daily surveys

Assume we're polling or surveying people about their predictions regarding some future event. This survey is done every day, and the event they are asked to predict is the same every time. For example,...
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0answers
20 views

Standard error, margin of error, polls and binomial distribution [duplicate]

So, when doing polling, we use binomial distribution to capture the data (in case there are only two choices.). My question is, let us say that estimated percentage according to the poll that ...
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1answer
226 views

How to do pre-election polling with statistics? (discrete results)

In statistics, it is taught about samples that can have some range of numbers as their values. However, in election like presidential election, there are only several candidates to choose. In that ...
3
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1answer
109 views

Correcting biased polling

Let's say I'm polling for a binary election in different states with known biases. Furthermore, let's say I only manage to poll only a small sample of people in each of these states. How would you ...
4
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1answer
122 views

Layperson's guide to valid polling via Internet?

Sites such as Survey Monkey allow a layperson to easily create and administer a questionnaire. However, the only thing I know about polling is that you can't just create a questionnaire, let anyone ...
1
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1answer
138 views

How to determine voter preference from a “small sample” poll using Bayesian statistics?

I created a poll on a sports forum asking people how they think their favorite NBA team did this off-season. The poll options were: Top 10, Middle 10, Bottom 10. I expect dozens of people to respond, ...
11
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2answers
36k views

How are margins of error related to confidence Intervals?

Can somebody tell me the difference between margins of error and confidence intervals? On the Internet I see these two meanings getting used interchangeably. Is it right to say, "Confidence ...
3
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2answers
278 views

Comparing accuracy of polling companies in multi-party system

I'm trying to quanitfy how well (or poorly) different polling companies did in a recent election ina multi-party system (so, it's not as easy as saying how much they got the margin wrong in a two-...
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4answers
3k views

How to interpret the margin of error in a poll?

Recently the media reported on a political poll that stated that "46% of Republican voters in Mississippi think that interracial marriage should be illegal". One example story (of many around the '...
6
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2answers
2k views

Difference in means in multiple-choice poll

Let's say that N randomly chosen persons where asked a question where the answer could be in either of X categories. For example, 500 persons where asked which of the top 5 political parties they ...
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2answers
1k views

Do confidence intervals apply to quota sampling?

French polling institutes are currently facing a major crisis after they recently published what can only be called the most ridiculous poll so far on the 2012 presidential election horse race. The ...
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6answers
1k views

Should a multiple choice poll contain a neutral response?

I want to conduct a poll on the quality of a product containing several questions with five possible answers: Very poor Poor OK / No opinion Good Very good A colleague has advised me to ditch option ...
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2answers
1k views

Does a high likelihood of duplicate samples invalidate my data or certain operations on it?

We have data from random polling within a group of people, sampled over a long period of time. As the pool is relatively small and anonymity is crucial there is a high likelihood that we have ...
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3answers
9k views

Can you explain why statistical tie is not naively rejected when $p_1-p_2 < 2 \,\text {MOE}$?

I need help explaining, and citing basic statistics texts, papers or other references, why it is generally incorrect to use the margin of error (MOE) statistic reported in polling to naively declare a ...
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3answers
46k views

How do you decide the sample size when polling a large population?

Australia is currently having an election and understandably the media reports new political poll results daily. In a country of 22 million what percentage of the population would need to be sampled ...