Questions tagged [polling]

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Looking for a way to analyse results of a poll and compare them to expected results

I will be conducting a poll on 5 to 10 people. I will have each of them score about 100 samples from 0 to 10 and then I will compare their answers with the expected values of those samples. I am ...
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2 votes
2 answers
167 views

How to understand taking a simple sample to compute the Confidence Interval, using CLT?

Suppose there is a population distribution having mean M and standard deviation SD. We want to estimate the Confidence Interval by using a single sample using CLT. We take a sample and compute it's ...
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0 votes
1 answer
27 views

Sample size of a vote transfer poll

A vote transfer poll asks the electorate about how they voted in the last election and how they would vote if the next election was now. With the result from both questions one could build a matrix of ...
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-1 votes
1 answer
23 views

how to decide if a poll result is Agreement or Argument? [closed]

Let's say we have a poll with 3 possible choices (A - B - C). N people participated in the poll. A participant can participate only once by choosing only one choice of the available choices. lets say: ...
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1 vote
2 answers
28 views

means and errors for election polls

I'm trying to assess how to compute the errors associated with a numbers of likely voter polls of the Warnock Georgia Senate race. I have estimates of the margin of victory from 9 surveys of varying ...
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0 votes
1 answer
67 views

Comparing multiple bernoulli distributions

Suppose that we have 3 groups of people (CS/Stats/History students) and we question student in each group if they like chocolate. So for each group we have the percentage of students that like ...
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6 votes
1 answer
100 views

Count data with largely varying sample sizes. Can I get anything from the data?

I only have categorical data, between two groups, with more than three categories per data set. Here are some actual examples of the data: Comparing (https://www.strawpoll.me/4380945/r) to (https://...
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3 votes
1 answer
52 views

How can I compare the variance or correlation between ranked *single answer* polls?

I am an undergrad psych major examining the differences in personal preferences between the extremist website 4chan and other websites, which will represent the pop norm. I would like to test whether ...
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0 votes
1 answer
22 views

Fluctuation and standard errors in election polling

British politics is very interesting lately; particularly so since Corbyn was elected Labour leader in 2015, and later with Brexit happening and so on. Since then, multiple events have had dramatic ...
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1 vote
1 answer
33 views

Question about Bayesian Polling

A professor in the United States reads a headline stating that only 36% of Americans have ever been outside the U.S. She believes the headline to be true and would like to know whether the 30 pupils ...
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4 votes
1 answer
159 views

Linear regression vs contingency table for poll results

Let's assume we made a survey where participants had to evaluate us on a scale from 1 to 5. We want to analyse how different variables (let's say gender or age for instance) have an effect on the ...
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1 vote
1 answer
28 views

Do pollsters use independent samples?

Is it a common practice for political pollsters to use random independent samples to conduct their polls?
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3 votes
0 answers
178 views

Margin of Error for poll that allows selecting multiple options?

I have a poll with a known sample size (let's say n=1000) which has results that look like this: ...
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4 votes
1 answer
260 views

Statistical significance of a difference between poll percentages with a small sample?

Analyzing my company’s internal survey results, I was stuck with calculating statistical difference between percentages. I usually used a Z-test as described below, but I am not sure whether it is ...
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1 vote
0 answers
30 views

Differentiating between a negative response and lack of response

Consider a setting where we are trying to determine a set of user's preferences over products. To do so, we present users with ads and keep track of which ads for which products they click on. Over ...
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3 votes
1 answer
495 views

How to decide the number of options to give to people in a poll? (for opinion based, subjective contexts)

Just to be clear, this question is open ended on purpose, I am fine with(or even prefer to) being pointed to a few research papers, and proper areas related to this subject. I am not sure what I am ...
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0 votes
2 answers
369 views

What is difference between statistical bias and common sense bias [closed]

Colloquially, a statistic may be described as “biased” if it misrepresents whatever it’s intended to represent, whether or not it was more likely a priori to err in one direction or another. (This ...
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  • 183
2 votes
1 answer
700 views

What do poll probabilities actually mean [duplicate]

I don't understand what the probabilities for an election actually mean. I was reading this piece but I still don't get it. What could it possibly mean to say that candidate A has 70% chance of ...
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  • 575
1 vote
0 answers
360 views

Margin of Error in Stratified Random Sampling of New York Times stories

This table shows the number of stories reported by the New York Times on Afghanistan in which a US government official was quoted. Each row does not represent all stories but, rather, a sample of ...
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2 votes
2 answers
651 views

Can Margin of Error be calculated from previous accuracy?

I'm a complete stats newbie, but I got into a discussion on the following article about polling accuracy. The author looks through the historic accuracy of UK pollsters, then finds the average ...
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6 votes
1 answer
48 views

Opinion polls during which voters are allowed to see accumulated intermediate result

Has there been any systematic research on the opinion polls in which each voter can see the accumulated result up to the time of his/her vote? Many online polls show the live result, and new voters ...
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4 votes
0 answers
80 views

How likely is strong consistence among opinion polls?

With the upcoming French presidential election (first round on 23th of April 2017) many opinion polls are ordered and presented in the news. There are several initiatives to track the results of these ...
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1 vote
2 answers
125 views

Sensitivity analysis of election poll correlation

I am interested in why the 2016 presidential election polls did a poor job in forecasting the result. One hypothesis I heard is that many of the polls conducted before the election were correlated, ...
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4 votes
2 answers
4k views

Calculating the probability of someone winning from a poll

Say I have a poll of 100 people for an upcoming election, which is fairly representative of the population. 45 say they will vote for candidate A, 30 for candidate B, and 25 for candidate C. What is ...
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0 votes
2 answers
202 views

"Agreement Score"

I have a dataset of legislative roll call votes. This dataset contains the votes of all members of Congress during on specific period (in this case, 2 years). The data is mounted according this ...
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4 votes
1 answer
1k views

How to interpret margin of error in a non-binary poll?

I know what margin of error means in a poll with two choices. For example, if a poll estimates two candidates are to have 45% and 55% of the vote respectively and the margin of error is 4%, then we ...
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1 vote
1 answer
119 views

Accuracy of election polls [duplicate]

There are a number of questions about election polls and margin of error that have been covered in CrossValidated over the years, including one regarding the 2016 US election polls. That one however ...
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0 votes
1 answer
51 views

Adjusting for bias in attempted-random sample method

In order to better understand some of the polling for the presidential election, I created a simple JS program which runs iterations of sample-based polls to prove just how accurate things like margin ...
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3 votes
1 answer
105 views

UK Exit EU Poll

Since it is the topic of the day, let's turn it into a statistical question. Preliminary polls are showing 52 to 48 in favor of staying in the EU in terms of vote. However bookies are giving a 80%+ ...
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11 votes
3 answers
5k views

Is there a known bias with telephone polls in the U.S.?

I was looking at a WashingtonTimes/ABC poll, and the results breakdown, especially by age, seemed surprising to me. So I went looking for bias. It said: "poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 11-14, ...
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4 votes
0 answers
334 views

Better prediction models with polling data?

I've been working on a project on measuring polls' accuracy in complex contexts (more than two candidates) where there are a small number of inaccurate polling data points. I thought it would be the ...
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4 votes
1 answer
98 views

Filtering random guessers from daily surveys

Assume we're polling or surveying people about their predictions regarding some future event. This survey is done every day, and the event they are asked to predict is the same every time. For example,...
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0 votes
0 answers
25 views

Standard error, margin of error, polls and binomial distribution [duplicate]

So, when doing polling, we use binomial distribution to capture the data (in case there are only two choices.). My question is, let us say that estimated percentage according to the poll that ...
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1 vote
1 answer
277 views

How to do pre-election polling with statistics? (discrete results)

In statistics, it is taught about samples that can have some range of numbers as their values. However, in election like presidential election, there are only several candidates to choose. In that ...
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3 votes
1 answer
140 views

Correcting biased polling

Let's say I'm polling for a binary election in different states with known biases. Furthermore, let's say I only manage to poll only a small sample of people in each of these states. How would you ...
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4 votes
1 answer
131 views

Layperson's guide to valid polling via Internet?

Sites such as Survey Monkey allow a layperson to easily create and administer a questionnaire. However, the only thing I know about polling is that you can't just create a questionnaire, let anyone ...
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1 vote
1 answer
144 views

How to determine voter preference from a "small sample" poll using Bayesian statistics?

I created a poll on a sports forum asking people how they think their favorite NBA team did this off-season. The poll options were: Top 10, Middle 10, Bottom 10. I expect dozens of people to respond, ...
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12 votes
2 answers
42k views

How are margins of error related to confidence Intervals?

Can somebody tell me the difference between margins of error and confidence intervals? On the Internet I see these two meanings getting used interchangeably. Is it right to say, "Confidence ...
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4 votes
2 answers
286 views

Comparing accuracy of polling companies in multi-party system

I'm trying to quanitfy how well (or poorly) different polling companies did in a recent election ina multi-party system (so, it's not as easy as saying how much they got the margin wrong in a two-...
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6 votes
4 answers
3k views

How to interpret the margin of error in a poll?

Recently the media reported on a political poll that stated that "46% of Republican voters in Mississippi think that interracial marriage should be illegal". One example story (of many around the '...
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7 votes
2 answers
2k views

Difference in means in multiple-choice poll

Let's say that N randomly chosen persons where asked a question where the answer could be in either of X categories. For example, 500 persons where asked which of the top 5 political parties they ...
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9 votes
2 answers
2k views

Do confidence intervals apply to quota sampling?

French polling institutes are currently facing a major crisis after they recently published what can only be called the most ridiculous poll so far on the 2012 presidential election horse race. The ...
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  • 1,363
7 votes
6 answers
2k views

Should a multiple choice poll contain a neutral response?

I want to conduct a poll on the quality of a product containing several questions with five possible answers: Very poor Poor OK / No opinion Good Very good A colleague has advised me to ditch option ...
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3 votes
2 answers
2k views

Does a high likelihood of duplicate samples invalidate my data or certain operations on it?

We have data from random polling within a group of people, sampled over a long period of time. As the pool is relatively small and anonymity is crucial there is a high likelihood that we have ...
14 votes
3 answers
14k views

Can you explain why statistical tie is not naively rejected when $p_1-p_2 < 2 \,\text {MOE}$?

I need help explaining, and citing basic statistics texts, papers or other references, why it is generally incorrect to use the margin of error (MOE) statistic reported in polling to naively declare a ...
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16 votes
3 answers
55k views

How do you decide the sample size when polling a large population?

Australia is currently having an election and understandably the media reports new political poll results daily. In a country of 22 million what percentage of the population would need to be sampled ...
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