# Questions tagged [polling]

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### How much influence does a single participant in an opinion poll have?

I consider to participate an Internet panel used by opinion poll companies. The salary is negligible; the main thing I hope to gain from participating is the opportunity to affect the outcomes, and by ...
• 1,009
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### Measuring statistical significance in online polling

I have online polling results with 1200 responses. 600 of the respondents were exposed to one set of images and the other 600 were exposed to another set of images. The respondents were then asked a ...
1 vote
64 views

### Correcting the results of opinion poll done on unrepresentative sample

An opinion poll should be done on a representative sample of the population, so that its outcomes give a reliable estimate of the real public opinion. Suppose I have a large database of users, who are ...
• 1,009
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### How do elections prediction works [duplicate]

Here in my country it's time to choose a president. So some institutions make surveys about how many votes (in %) the candidates are gone get in the poll day. The population is about 200 million ...
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1 vote
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### Looking for a way to analyse results of a poll and compare them to expected results

I will be conducting a poll on 5 to 10 people. I will have each of them score about 100 samples from 0 to 10 and then I will compare their answers with the expected values of those samples. I am ...
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### How to understand taking a simple sample to compute the Confidence Interval, using CLT?

Suppose there is a population distribution having mean M and standard deviation SD. We want to estimate the Confidence Interval by using a single sample using CLT. We take a sample and compute it's ...
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### Sample size of a vote transfer poll

A vote transfer poll asks the electorate about how they voted in the last election and how they would vote if the next election was now. With the result from both questions one could build a matrix of ...
27 views

### how to decide if a poll result is Agreement or Argument? [closed]

Let's say we have a poll with 3 possible choices (A - B - C). N people participated in the poll. A participant can participate only once by choosing only one choice of the available choices. lets say: ...
• 101
1 vote
36 views

### means and errors for election polls

I'm trying to assess how to compute the errors associated with a numbers of likely voter polls of the Warnock Georgia Senate race. I have estimates of the margin of victory from 9 surveys of varying ...
244 views

### Comparing multiple bernoulli distributions

Suppose that we have 3 groups of people (CS/Stats/History students) and we question student in each group if they like chocolate. So for each group we have the percentage of students that like ...
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### Count data with largely varying sample sizes. Can I get anything from the data?

I only have categorical data, between two groups, with more than three categories per data set. Here are some actual examples of the data: Comparing (https://www.strawpoll.me/4380945/r) to (https://...
62 views

### How can I compare the variance or correlation between ranked *single answer* polls?

I am an undergrad psych major examining the differences in personal preferences between the extremist website 4chan and other websites, which will represent the pop norm. I would like to test whether ...
1 vote
24 views

### Fluctuation and standard errors in election polling

British politics is very interesting lately; particularly so since Corbyn was elected Labour leader in 2015, and later with Brexit happening and so on. Since then, multiple events have had dramatic ...
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1 vote
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### Question about Bayesian Polling

A professor in the United States reads a headline stating that only 36% of Americans have ever been outside the U.S. She believes the headline to be true and would like to know whether the 30 pupils ...
308 views

### Linear regression vs contingency table for poll results

Let's assume we made a survey where participants had to evaluate us on a scale from 1 to 5. We want to analyse how different variables (let's say gender or age for instance) have an effect on the ...
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1 vote
51 views

### Do pollsters use independent samples?

Is it a common practice for political pollsters to use random independent samples to conduct their polls?
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### Margin of Error for poll that allows selecting multiple options?

I have a poll with a known sample size (let's say n=1000) which has results that look like this: ...
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### Statistical significance of a difference between poll percentages with a small sample?

Analyzing my company’s internal survey results, I was stuck with calculating statistical difference between percentages. I usually used a Z-test as described below, but I am not sure whether it is ...
1 vote
30 views

### Differentiating between a negative response and lack of response

Consider a setting where we are trying to determine a set of user's preferences over products. To do so, we present users with ads and keep track of which ads for which products they click on. Over ...
• 151
416 views

### What is difference between statistical bias and common sense bias [closed]

Colloquially, a statistic may be described as “biased” if it misrepresents whatever it’s intended to represent, whether or not it was more likely a priori to err in one direction or another. (This ...
• 213
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### What do poll probabilities actually mean [duplicate]

I don't understand what the probabilities for an election actually mean. I was reading this piece but I still don't get it. What could it possibly mean to say that candidate A has 70% chance of ...
• 665
1 vote
387 views

### Margin of Error in Stratified Random Sampling of New York Times stories

This table shows the number of stories reported by the New York Times on Afghanistan in which a US government official was quoted. Each row does not represent all stories but, rather, a sample of ...
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### Can Margin of Error be calculated from previous accuracy?

I'm a complete stats newbie, but I got into a discussion on the following article about polling accuracy. The author looks through the historic accuracy of UK pollsters, then finds the average ...
49 views

### Opinion polls during which voters are allowed to see accumulated intermediate result

Has there been any systematic research on the opinion polls in which each voter can see the accumulated result up to the time of his/her vote? Many online polls show the live result, and new voters ...
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### How likely is strong consistence among opinion polls?

With the upcoming French presidential election (first round on 23th of April 2017) many opinion polls are ordered and presented in the news. There are several initiatives to track the results of these ...
1 vote
137 views

### Sensitivity analysis of election poll correlation

I am interested in why the 2016 presidential election polls did a poor job in forecasting the result. One hypothesis I heard is that many of the polls conducted before the election were correlated, ...
6k views

### Calculating the probability of someone winning from a poll

Say I have a poll of 100 people for an upcoming election, which is fairly representative of the population. 45 say they will vote for candidate A, 30 for candidate B, and 25 for candidate C. What is ...
225 views

### "Agreement Score"

I have a dataset of legislative roll call votes. This dataset contains the votes of all members of Congress during on specific period (in this case, 2 years). The data is mounted according this ...
2k views

### How to interpret margin of error in a non-binary poll?

I know what margin of error means in a poll with two choices. For example, if a poll estimates two candidates are to have 45% and 55% of the vote respectively and the margin of error is 4%, then we ...
1 vote
132 views

### Accuracy of election polls [duplicate]

There are a number of questions about election polls and margin of error that have been covered in CrossValidated over the years, including one regarding the 2016 US election polls. That one however ...
71 views

### Adjusting for bias in attempted-random sample method

In order to better understand some of the polling for the presidential election, I created a simple JS program which runs iterations of sample-based polls to prove just how accurate things like margin ...
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### UK Exit EU Poll

Since it is the topic of the day, let's turn it into a statistical question. Preliminary polls are showing 52 to 48 in favor of staying in the EU in terms of vote. However bookies are giving a 80%+ ...
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### Is there a known bias with telephone polls in the U.S.?

I was looking at a WashingtonTimes/ABC poll, and the results breakdown, especially by age, seemed surprising to me. So I went looking for bias. It said: "poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 11-14, ...
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382 views

### Better prediction models with polling data?

I've been working on a project on measuring polls' accuracy in complex contexts (more than two candidates) where there are a small number of inaccurate polling data points. I thought it would be the ...
105 views

### Filtering random guessers from daily surveys

Assume we're polling or surveying people about their predictions regarding some future event. This survey is done every day, and the event they are asked to predict is the same every time. For example,...
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### Standard error, margin of error, polls and binomial distribution [duplicate]

So, when doing polling, we use binomial distribution to capture the data (in case there are only two choices.). My question is, let us say that estimated percentage according to the poll that ...
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1 vote
282 views

### How to do pre-election polling with statistics? (discrete results)

In statistics, it is taught about samples that can have some range of numbers as their values. However, in election like presidential election, there are only several candidates to choose. In that ...
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### Correcting biased polling

Let's say I'm polling for a binary election in different states with known biases. Furthermore, let's say I only manage to poll only a small sample of people in each of these states. How would you ...
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### Layperson's guide to valid polling via Internet?

Sites such as Survey Monkey allow a layperson to easily create and administer a questionnaire. However, the only thing I know about polling is that you can't just create a questionnaire, let anyone ...
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### How to determine voter preference from a "small sample" poll using Bayesian statistics?

I created a poll on a sports forum asking people how they think their favorite NBA team did this off-season. The poll options were: Top 10, Middle 10, Bottom 10. I expect dozens of people to respond, ...
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### How are margins of error related to confidence Intervals?

Can somebody tell me the difference between margins of error and confidence intervals? On the Internet I see these two meanings getting used interchangeably. Is it right to say, "Confidence ...
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### Comparing accuracy of polling companies in multi-party system

I'm trying to quanitfy how well (or poorly) different polling companies did in a recent election ina multi-party system (so, it's not as easy as saying how much they got the margin wrong in a two-...
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### How to interpret the margin of error in a poll?

Recently the media reported on a political poll that stated that "46% of Republican voters in Mississippi think that interracial marriage should be illegal". One example story (of many around the '...
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### Difference in means in multiple-choice poll

Let's say that N randomly chosen persons where asked a question where the answer could be in either of X categories. For example, 500 persons where asked which of the top 5 political parties they ...
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### Do confidence intervals apply to quota sampling?

French polling institutes are currently facing a major crisis after they recently published what can only be called the most ridiculous poll so far on the 2012 presidential election horse race. The ...
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### Should a multiple choice poll contain a neutral response?

I want to conduct a poll on the quality of a product containing several questions with five possible answers: Very poor Poor OK / No opinion Good Very good A colleague has advised me to ditch option ...
2k views

### Does a high likelihood of duplicate samples invalidate my data or certain operations on it?

We have data from random polling within a group of people, sampled over a long period of time. As the pool is relatively small and anonymity is crucial there is a high likelihood that we have ...