# Questions tagged [posterior]

In Bayesian statistics, the term 'posterior' refers to the probability distribution of a parameter conditioned on the observed data.

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### Implementing Predictive Posterior Distribution Using Stan

Background I had an example that sought to demonstrate the posterior predictive distribution in the context of a normal measurement model. The data that was used is as follows: ...
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### Density estimation/approximation from MCMC samples

I'm looking to accurately describe the density function of a multivariate posterior probability distribution based on samples from MCMC. As far as I know, in most cases this is done either with a ...
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### Time evolution of a Bayesian posterior

I have a question regarding the time evolution of a quantity related to a Bayesian posterior. Suppose we have binary parameter space $\{ s_1, s_2 \}$ with prior $(p, 1-p)$, The data generating ...
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### Dealing with dependent data in a Bayesian model

Background: Consider a series of dependent data points, $$y_1,y_2,y_3,\cdots,y_N.$$ In cases where the dependence is well described by an exponentially decaying auto-correlation function, it is ...
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### What do the terms "nearly-optimal rate", "near-minimax rate", "minimax optimal rate" and "minimax rate" mean in the context of posterior consistency?

Definition: A sequence $\epsilon_n$ is a posterior contraction rate at the parameter $θ_0$ if $$\Pi_n(θ: d(θ, θ_0) ≥ M_n \epsilon_n| X^{(n)}) → 0$$ in $P^{(n)}_{θ_0}$-probability, for every $M_n → ∞$. ...
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### Including feature-dependent priors on output class, in bayesian logistic regression

When doing logistic regression with data $D_N = \{(x_i, y_i)\}_i^N$ with $x_i \in \mathbf{X}^N$ (each data point has N features) and $y_i \in \mathbf{Y}$ being assigned output classes, in a Bayesian ...
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### Dealing with auxiliary random variables for Mean-Field Variational Inference in Bayesian Poisson factorization

I am studying as a part of a class assignment a recent paper on Poisson factorization. Some points of the paper regarding the usage of some auxiliary variables are not clear to me. I would like to ...
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### Parameter Estimation for Naive Bayes - Maximum a posteriori and Maximum Likelihood

I am wondering if I understand those terms correctly. To summarize my thoughts: In naive Bayes, our decision rule is basically the Maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of our hypothesis. We assign an ... 978 views

### Generate Posterior predictive distribution at every step in the MCMC chain for a hierarchical regression model

I'm trying to fit a Bayesian Hierarchical regression model with a random correlated coefficients using R ,I'm using data having 160 groups (schools) to fit a model of math score as a function of one ...
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### Lipschitzness of posterior mean of Gaussian process?

Let $T$ be a compact set, and let $K \colon T \times T \to \mathbb{R}$ be a positive definite kernel. Consider the canonical pseudo-distance $$d_K(x,y) = \sqrt{K(x,x) + K(y,y) - 2 K(x,y)}.$$ Let $f$ ...
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### How do I sample from the posterior distribution with gamma likelihood with unknown alpha and beta?

I realize that this Wikipedia page provides the proportional form of the conjugate prior to the gamma distribution with unknown $\alpha$ and $\beta$ parameters, as well as the posterior values of $p$, ...
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### Posterior distribution under Cauchy prior?

I have a (I hope) simple question! If I had a linear regression, $Y_t = \alpha + \beta X_t + \epsilon_t$ with $\epsilon_t \sim N(0,\sigma^2)$ and I assume a Cauchy prior for $\sigma$, is it ...
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### Implementation of Bayes posterior predictive check

I have a question concerning the implementation of a bayes posterior predictive check. Let us assume i have this model (implementation is in R and jags): ...
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### How do I perform an actual "posterior predictive check"?

This question is the follow-up of this previous question: Bayesian inference and testable implications. For concreteness, consider the following bayesian model. This model is not to be taken ... 373 views

### What is the posterior kernel lengthscale of a Gaussian process?

If I have access to multiple samples from a Gaussian process with known covariance kernel but unknown parameters (i.e. unknown lengthscale), it is straightforward to estimate the lengthscale using ...
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I have been trying to estimate the marginal posterior for D variable using Laplace approximation: $p(\theta_i) \approx \left[\frac{\det{H}}{2\pi\det{H(\theta_i)}}\right]^{1/2} \exp\left[-L(\theta_i, \... 3 votes 0 answers 66 views ### Bayesian Decision Making (for particular problem) I've read several papers why p-values should be replaced by Bayes factors and trying to use them. What I have: say, I have matrix of 2000 rows and 1000 columns. In each column I need to make a ... 3 votes 0 answers 322 views ### Multivariate posterior predictive distribution for the normal model (reference request) Consider a Gaussian sample$y_1, \ldots, y_n \sim_{\text{iid}} \mathcal{N}(\mu,\sigma^2)$and treat it in the Bayesian way with the noninformative prior$\pi(\mu, \sigma) \propto \frac{1}{\sigma}. I ... 3 votes 0 answers 45 views ### Using Monte Carlo to find a posterior probability distirbution (distirbution propagation) Using Monte Carlo to propagate error is a well known technique. To do that, one usually uses the Markov equation to find the posterior distribution $$P(y|\mathbf{a})= \int \delta(y-F(\zeta))P(\zeta ... 3 votes 0 answers 490 views ### Gaussian processes: posterior vs. predictive distributions I'm a little bit confused about the posterior distribution for Gaussian processes. If we consider the case with noise-free data, we have a prior f|X \sim N(0, K). If we are given \{(x_i, f_i): i=1.,... 3 votes 0 answers 460 views ### What is popular choice for modelling distribution of orthogonal matrices In Bayesian statistics, instead of considering a variable to be fixed and use MLE to infer that value, we put a prior distribution over that variable. Now consider an orthogonal matrix W \in R^{d \... 3 votes 0 answers 140 views ### Why do Srivastava et al. claim that "the best" theoretical regularization technique involves all possible network parameter settings? In the original paper on Dropout by Srivastava, Hinton, Krizhevsky et al. (2014), the authors make this claim in the introduction: With unlimited computation, the best way to "regularize" a fixed-... 3 votes 0 answers 3k views ### How to find MLE and MAP of a Poisson distribution? Can someone explain how to find out the Maximum Likelihood and Maximum A Posteriori Estimate for a Poisson distribution with mean \lambda ? I did the calculation for the MLE as follows: The ... 3 votes 0 answers 72 views ### How should three unordered categories be encoded in a bayesian network framework? The SAS FAQ suggest that for unordered two categories I should one dummy variables, for example: The common practice of using target values of .1 and .9 instead of 0 and 1 prevents the outputs of ... 3 votes 0 answers 191 views ### Posterior pointwise uncertainty of multivariate normal-Wishart (variational GMM) Given a variational mixture of Gaussians (as per, e.g., Chapter 10 of Bishop, 2006), we can compute the posterior predictive pdf:$$ \left\langle p(x|\alpha,\beta,\nu,\mu,V) \right\rangle where \... 3 votes 0 answers 51 views ### Derive ditribution for \mu | Y_1,...Y_h,\rho (Bayesian stats) I am trying to understand the following paper (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20156954). Imagine we have H clinical trials with historical data on control group. Y_1, ... Y_h - are estimates ... 3 votes 0 answers 215 views ### Derive Marginal Posterior to set up Gibbs-Sampler I am currently trying to replicate a Hierarchical Model for multivariate returns proposed in the paper Portfolio selection using hierarchical Bayesian analysis and MCMC methods. However, in order to ... 3 votes 0 answers 194 views ### Does a proper prior lead always a proper posterior? Does a proper prior lead always a proper posterior? I cannot check whether the posterior is proper, so I was wondering if this assumption is always satisfied . 3 votes 0 answers 338 views ### Finding the Complicated Posterior Probability Distribution of θ Suppose, we are given a likelihood function, f(x|θ) corresponding to a shifted-exponential distribution and the prior distribution on the parameter θ is a standard Cauchy distribution. Now I am ... 3 votes 0 answers 95 views ### Is the posterior a sufficient statistic when observations are conditionally independent? Suppose there are two random variables, X_1 and X_2, and we're trying to infer \theta. If X_1 and X_2 are conditionally independent, then is f(\theta|X_1) a sufficient statistic for X_1?... 3 votes 0 answers 207 views ### Marginal Likelihood Latent Variable Model I am trying to apply the method proposed by Chib in Marginal Likelihood from the Metropolis Hastings Output to calculate the marginal likelihood of a logit model the includes latent variables. ... 3 votes 0 answers 515 views ### Best method to estimate the mean of a normal distribution? Let X = ( x_1, ..., x_n ) be n samples from a normal distribution with unknown mean. What is the best estimator for this mean? I can think of at least 2 unbiased estimators: The empirical mean ... 3 votes 0 answers 306 views ### Determining the posterior distribution for an Autoregressive or order 1 model Question: For this question, note that the notation y_{1:T} = (y_1, y_2, \cdots, y_T), ie, a vector of random variables. Consider the following AR(1) model: \begin{align*} y_{t+1} = \phi y_t + \... 3 votes 0 answers 121 views ### Practical problems with difficult posteriors I'm looking for difficult Bayesian inference problems to test out different Monte Carlo sampling methods. I've mostly been looking at Hamiltonian Monte Carlo based algorithms and in particular, I've ... 2 votes 1 answer 9k views ### Find posterior distribution for uniform distribution Given X with uniform distribution in the interval [μ,μ+θ]. Suppose θ is given. Find the posterior distribution with prior distribution on your own. From that, find the Bayesian estimator with ... 2 votes 0 answers 24 views ### How do I evaluate correlation of model parameters using MCMC posterior samples from a rstan fit? Is there a better way to do so than simply by taking posterior parameter estimates and calculating the Spearman or Pearson correlation between them? Anything specific to having posterior samples from ... 2 votes 1 answer 80 views ### Regarding the bayes rule derivation of posterior distribution, p(\omega|x,y), for a given dataset D over \omega. So I was going through this paper and under Uncertainty modeling it says So I tried deriving it on my own and I got p(\omega | X, Y) = \frac{p(Y | X, \omega) \cdot p(X,\omega)}{p(Y | X) \cdot P(X)} ... 2 votes 0 answers 28 views ### Distribution families whose likelihoods integrate to +\infty for some sample values I've recently started learning about Bayesian statistics, and I came across this very nice answer by Xi'an https://stats.stackexchange.com/a/129908/268693, which [in my slight paraphrasing] says the ... 2 votes 0 answers 170 views ### Posterior predictive distribution for Bernoulli (and categorical) I'm trying to confirm something I've tried to figure out about the posterior predictive distribution for Bernoulli vs. Binomial (and categorical vs. multinomial) random variables after a Bayesian ... 2 votes 0 answers 99 views ### Bound on the expectation of a function of random variable having a strictly log-concave probability density let \theta \in \mathbb{R}^d be a random variable having a strictly log-concave probability density function, i.e \begin{equation} p(\theta) = e^{-\phi(\theta)} \end{equation} where \phi(\theta) is ... 2 votes 1 answer 76 views ### How to obtain the distributions of linear model parameters? For a linear modely = \beta_0 + \beta_1x_1 + \beta_2x_2 + …… + \sigma^2$$Assuming \beta_0, \beta_1,…… are random varibles, how to obtain the distributions of these parameters? It seems that ... 2 votes 0 answers 164 views ### When does this prior dominate likelihood? This is a simple Bayesian inference problem, where we are trying to infer some weight parameter w. Our posterior distribution is$$ P\propto \exp\left(-\frac{1}{\sigma^2} w^Tw\right) \exp\left(-f(w)\... 2 votes 0 answers 233 views ### Posterior distribution of two i.i.d. uniform r.v. given their difference with graphical intuition I have two i.i.d. random variables,\theta_1$and$\theta_2$which are uniformly distributed on the unit square. I need to compute the joint posterior distribution of these two variables, given their ... 2 votes 0 answers 81 views ### Show that posterior distribution is proportional to likelihood times prior when both y and X are in the equation Reviewing MCMC for my work, I have got a problem with the very fundamental equation for the posterior:$$P(\theta |y, X) = \frac{P(y|X, \theta)P(\theta)}{p(y|X)} = \frac{P(y|X, \theta)P(\theta)}{Z}$...
Usually, in an experimental scientific paper where we have observations $X$ taken in laboratory conditions, we either reject some model $\mathcal{M}$ under the basis that $P(X \mid \mathcal{M}) \ll 1$,...