# Questions tagged [probability]

A probability provides a quantitative description of the likely occurrence of a particular event.

7,215 questions
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### Comparing observed vs expected occurrences of events when each occurrence has a different probability

I am trying to determine whether a set of advertised probabilities are accurate or if the advertiser is providing misleading data. Specifically, I have a list of events where the probability of ...
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### Manipulating samples with Extreme Value Theory

First of all, i'm an electrical engineer and i know very little about statistics and probability. In one of my work, i'm trying to somehow combine(this word might be wrong..) Extreme Value Theory and ...
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### Measure modality of a distribution

In statistics, different orders of moments are tools to characterize a distribution, for example mean, covariance, skewness etc., which also gives an intuitive way to visualize the distribution. But ...
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### How to calculate number of solid color images on the screen of random pixel generator?

Is there a statistical formula/function to calculate number of basic geometric shapes on the displays of random pixel generator? Let's say we have a basic random pixel generator which has 10*10 ...
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### Effect of a class to another class's passing rate

I have a case where there are 2 classes and I want to figure out how class 1 effects the passing rate of class 2. An example case: ...
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### Bayesian hypothesis testing and NHST - Which is better

i've seen a lot of approach for hypothesis testing and i wonder if some test (mainly those coming from frequentist inference) like the null hypothesis testing are still relevants today. I've seen some ...
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### Confusion with Computing Probabilities of a Normal Distribution without the Integral

How does this code is calculating the probability of Normal distribution without calculating the integral ...
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### Distinction between probability and probability mass function (PMF)?

Assume $X$ is a discrete-valued random variable. Often in literature the same notation is used for the probability $Pr(X = x)$ as for the probability mass function $P(X)$. Clearly, this is because ...
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### How to make machine learning model that reports ambiguity of the input?

Suppose I want to build a neural network regression model that takes one input and return one output. Here's the training data: ...
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### The expected occurences of successive draws

We throw a coin 1 000 000 times. How many times on average will make 13 successful heads? Now the problem with the naive: 1 000 000/(2^13) is that once it made 13 heads the 14 head will happen with 1/...
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### How to create a scale combining normalized percentile scores to get an overall result

I am trying to work out a scale for assessing a person’s risk for a particular behavior (like rob a bank). The likelihood of this behavior occurring or not occurring will be based on scores for a ...
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### Capital distribution between several bets

I'm trying to figure out the algorithm of capital distribution between several bets. For example, let's say I have two bets with the same 50%/50% probability of winning and losing, but one bet has a ...
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### How is $P(D;\theta) = P(D|\theta)$?

I started reading about maximum likelihood estimator and Bayesian statistics recently. I understand that given a statistical model $(X, (P_\theta))$ where, $\theta$ belongs to a large parameter space \$...
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### Terminology Confusion: Probability, Likelihood, AND?

currently I have a terminology issue to accurately write a text. I read up on the definitions on probability and likelihood. Given some continuous random variable(s) as far as I can infer, probability ...
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### Find the same components between two distributions

GMM assumes that a distribution consists of multiple Gaussian Distributions. Is it possible to find the same components between the two distribution? For example, there are two distribution D1 and D2. ...
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### How can I have probability decrease linearly with more dice?

I'm working on a simplified rpg-system that only use D6 and I want a mechanic for fumble/critical fail. Depending on how good the player is they have 1-5 dice to roll and they have to beat a ...