# Questions tagged [probability]

A probability provides a quantitative description of the likely occurrence of a particular event.

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22 views

### Which is the event, sample and population, notation confusion

I am really struggling with the notation for this. Below is the slide material followed by what I think it means/where I get stuck. "Some unknown real world quantity $\Theta$ takes values in $\Omega$....
47 views

### Best way to estimate the probabilities of a random variable

I have some confusion about estimating the probability of a particular value of a random variable. For simplicity, consider the case of a coin and the random variable being $X = \{H,T\}$, where $T$ is ...
101 views

### How to calculate a confidence interval for a series of Bernoulli Trials?

I have to test if a event have a p probability of happening. I can run this event as much times I like (given it can be run by a computer). So I was searching a way ...
38 views

### Build model for daily probability of meeting a certain end of period goal

I was hoping for some consultation with how to go about the following: To give context, I work for an agency that manages advertisements on social media for general motors - specifically their car ...
14 views

### In the fully supervised case, provided we have contingency matrices, is Bayesian inference the optimal method?

BACKGROUND Imagine that we have contingency matrices, i.e., counts or frequencies, linking the features (say, columns) and targets (rows). One could then compute the posterior probabilities, i.e., ...
55 views

### Need help to understand Feller's statement “whenever $r$th moment exists so do all preceding moments”

I am reading the book of Feller called "An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol I" (third edition, page 227) and am stuck at the moment he explains the notion of variance of a ...
1k views

### Why is the concept of the Null hypothesis associated with the student's t distribution?

There are dozens of continuous probability distributions like Gaussian (normal), Variance-gamma, Holtsmark, etc. Yet, the concept of the Null hypothesis is basically associated with Student's t-...
43 views

### Time series forecast with probability

I have historical data for a particular metric for each month for the last 3 years for different categories. The metric is a percentage and its heavily skewed towards 1 with more than 75% of values ...
34 views

### Reason for absolute value of Jacobian determinant in change-of-variable formula?

When we have a random variable $x$ with a probability density $p(x)$, and a function $y = f(x)$ that is differentiable and can be solved for $x = g(y)$, the change of variable formula leads us to a ...
25 views

### Difference between tight and uniformly tight random variables?

This wikipedia page implicitly says that “tight” and “uniformly tight” random variables refers to the same concept. I find this somewhat surprising. Are there contexts in which a distinction is made ...
22 views

### Quantile (Inverse Cumulative Density) Function for Hypergeometric Distribution

The hypergeometric distribution arises from sampling without replacement. The similar binomial sampling distribution assumes replacement. Hypergeometric distributions are commonly used in quality ...