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Questions tagged [probability]

A probability provides a quantitative description of the likely occurrence of a particular event.

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Jaynes' $A_p$ distribution

In Jaynes' book "Probability Theory: The Logic of Science", Jaynes has a chapter (Ch 18) entitled "The $A_p$ distribution and rule of succession" in which he introduces the idea of $A_p$ distributions,...
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Distribution/expected length of the shortest path in infinite random geometric graphs

Consider an infinite random geometric graph $G(\rho,d)$ in which vertices are uniformly and independently scattered over the 2D plane with density $\rho$ and edges connect the vertices that are closer ...
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Conditional probability update for correlated Poisson variables

Some background: I am trying to estimate the number of failures in two related machine populations. I model machine failures in a year as a correlated Poisson process as such: $Y_0,\ Y_1$ and $Y_2$ ...
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How to win this dice probability game?

The game is a variation of Pig. Here is how the game works: There are about 20 players. Each round, a single six sided die is rolled. All players add that rolled number to their "bank." However, if a ...
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Beta-binomial distribution for scaled and translated Beta

Recall, that a binomial distribution in which the probability of success at each trial is randomly drawn from a beta distribution results in the so called beta-binomial distribution. One can calculate ...