Questions tagged [prophet]

An automatic forecasting system developed by Facebook. Use this tag for any on-topic question that (a) involves Prophet either as a critical part of the question or expected answer and (b) is not just about how to use Prophet.

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how to calculate the confidence interval when sum the predictions

I want to predict the total sales of 10 stores. 8 of the 10 stores have 10 years sales data available, while the other 2 stores only have 2 and 4 years sales data. Firstly, I use prophet to build one ...
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1answer
26 views

prophet holiday effect

I use prophet to do time series forecasting. During Christmas season, the data rise from 12/22, reach peak on 12/23 and 12/24 (positive effect), then drop a lot on 12/25 and 12/26 (negative effect). ...
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Dealing with non continuous data in time series

My current project involves building forecasting model for asset - desktop, laptop and monitors. The data is for the last 3 years. There is good amount of seasonality in the data. There are few data ...
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236 views

Forecasting daily data with zeros in Python

I'm currently testing some forecasts on daily sales quantities. However, out of ~2000 observations I have 16 zeros. How should I approach this? It's mainly Sundays and holidays that holds zero as ...
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1answer
320 views

Forecasting recurring orders for an online subscription business using Facebook Prophet and R

I am analyzing data from a subscription model, in which a customer must pay a recurring price at a regular interval (30 days) for access to the product. EDIT -> Direct link to daily data: https://...
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6 views

Regime switching in FBProphet

Is it possible to implement regime switching models in fbprophet? I particular, if you had to forecast a sudden increase in a time series due to an external event, ...
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25 views

R - How to create a forecast object from a pre-defined forecast, in order to apply accuracy() for MASE result

I am working with a forecast which has been created by Prophet. I would like to apply accuracy() to return the MASE after identifying this as the best accuracy measure for multiple forecasts, and will ...
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40 views

I am trying to build a monthly revenue prediction model using Prophet in Python but how can I optimize the hyperparameters of the model?

The hyperparameters which I am trying to optimize are: 'n_changepoints', 'changepoint_range', 'holidays_prior_scale', 'seasonality_prior_scale' and 'changepoint_prior_scale'. 'changepoint_range' has a ...