# Questions tagged [risk]

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### Is it wrong to rephrase “1 in 80 deaths is caused by a car accident” as “1 in 80 people die as a result of a car accident?”

Statement One (S1): "One in 80 deaths is caused by a car accident." Statement Two (S2): "One in 80 people dies as a result of a car accident." Now, I personally don't see very much difference at all ...
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### Example Of Strict von Neumann Inequality

Let $r(\pi, \delta)$ denote the Bayes risk of an estimator $\delta$ with respect to a prior $\pi$, let $\Pi$ denote the set of all priors on the parameter space $\Theta$, and let $\Delta$ denote the ...
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### Implementation of CoVaR (a systemic risk measure) in R

I'm trying to estimate CoVaR using bivariate DCC GARCH in R. The concept of CoVaR is the dependence adjusted of VaR, which was first introduced by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2011). However, this ...
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### How does an estimator that minimizes a weighted sum of squared bias and variance fit into decision theory?

Okay--my original message failed to elicit a response; so, let me put the question a differently. I will start by explaining my understanding of estimation from a decision theoretic perspective. I ...
171 views

### Is there a word for the phenomenon that the old are generally less affected by risk factors?

In epidemiology, this occurs often: Old people are less prone to the influence of risk factors. For example, the Framingham risk score, which tries to estimate cardiovascular risk, gives 8 or 9 points ...
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### Predict probability of rare event

Let's say I have a dataset about passages of cars on a road. The dataset contains information about time, driver, car, weather, and most importantly whether the car was involved in an accident. Of ...
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### How to find a conditional probability using copula-based Markov process?

I have a monthly time series of a water quality parameter. I used copula-based Markov process of C(Y(t), Y(t-1) and I forecasted the mean behavior of Yt by following equation: Now, I need to find ...
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### How can I convert annual standard deviation to a longer period?

Quicken provides annual standard deviation of returns for a given portfolio using analysis done by the Newport Group. I'd like to convert this to a longer term number--say 10, 20, or 30 years. ...
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### Is this book excerpt an accurate statistical analysis of project risk?

I found this passage on the odds of a project succeeding in a book on risk management. I know this is open-ended, but is the author's math and logical reasoning correct here?
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### Can you reduce the risk involved in an uncertain event?

I'm not sure if this is the right Stack Exchange site but I felt it came closest. Based on Knights 1971 definition of risk uncertainty is defined as a situation where factors exogenous to the ...
786 views

### Get distribution for aggregate loss using Monte Carlo

I am given two data sets containing dates and losses (in some currency). Given a distribution for the amount of losses and an (a,b,0) distribution for frequency of losses, how can I use Monte Carlo ...
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### Convert classifier output for disease to probability using Bayes

Method 1 I am given a classifier for some disease that takes as input patient characteristics and has some sensitivity and specificity. Hence the classifier is a function c(patient characteristics) ...
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### Recalibration by regressing on intercept only with offset

Consider a risk prediction model developed on one population. When transporting this model to another population, the calibration can be off. There are several strategies for recalibration. One is to ...
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### Structural risk minimization and SVMs

I know what is SRM but I didn't understand the relation between SRM and SVMs. Can anyone explain me this? Why they say that SVMs rely on a SRM approach? Thank you so much!