Questions tagged [trend]
An observable pattern in the data.
452
questions
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1answer
22 views
What is first order difference in trend analysis?
I am following this paper: Measuring, Predicting and Visualizing Short-Term Change in Word Representation and Usage in VKontakte Social Network where in Differencing Statistics section they describe ...
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0answers
13 views
how to find a test for detecting fluctuation in a time series?
I have a time series which consists of, say, 100 values (which comes from a loss function).
Normally, the loss goes down over iterations. However, at some point it just starts fluctuating.
I would ...
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0answers
10 views
KPSS test with different results for trend and single mean models
I am having some dilemma while interpreting my KPSS stationarity test.
As in the image below, null is rejected for single mean model while not for trend model. Does it mean "after considering the ...
1
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1answer
39 views
how to compare short-term trend with a long-term trend?
Let's asume I have this annual temperature data from 1966 to 2018 from one region:
temp = [11.9, 11.7, 12.2 11.6 11.4 11.6 12.2 11.4 11.4 11.7 11.8 12.6 12.5 12.0 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.3 12.0 12.4 12.5 ...
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1answer
77 views
Linear model on decompose time series in R and interpretation [closed]
I am a newbie in time series.
I need a help with an interpretation of simple example of time series.
I would like to analyze whether trends over time of time series significantly increases/decreases ...
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0answers
16 views
Test for trend across ordinal categories: which test to use?
I want to test for a trend in a continuous (non-normal) response variable across ordinal categories.
I came across multiple test that seem suitable for this problem. Particularly, the R package ...
0
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1answer
21 views
Detrending for a large dataset consisting of many group time-series
I have a huge dataset consisting of many individuals (~20000), each with a month of daily data.
I am thinking of detrending those individual time series that are non-stationary but visually ...
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0answers
10 views
State-specific trends in staggered diff-in-diff model
I am running a staggered diff-in-diff model where I have four states implementing the same policy with different timings and three control states where the policy has not been implemented at all. My ...
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2answers
57 views
Trend & Seasonality Determination in Time Series without looking at Graph [duplicate]
Most of the articles I have read describe determining Trends and Seasonal (TS) effects through rolling your eyes on Graphs. Graph is a nice visual representation, but I am looking a way in either ...
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0answers
26 views
Time-series Analysis Over Changing Populations
I am looking for direction concerning approaches a problem that I have with a particular dataset that I am working on.
Consider a database query that counts the number of users [clicking links] on a [...
1
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1answer
59 views
How to show trend line is typical
I have sets of trend line data - values by year 2005-2017.
I want to show one set is 'the same' as the other sets, with 95% probability - or something like that. They look similar - I want to put a ...
0
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1answer
53 views
Should I do detrending or smoothing first?
Does it matter which one I perform first? If yes, why?
Might be a simple question, yet I could not find an answer anywhere else.
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0answers
19 views
Is there any difference in Trend Analysis and Time Series Analysis?
I want to compare prevalence of disease over time (years). I google "trend analysis" and first results where explaining "Time series analysis". Is there any difference in Trend Analysis and Time ...
2
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1answer
52 views
trend stationary with external regressors
Suppose I have two trend - stationary time series with strong correlation.
In the case where there are no regressors, if a time series is trend-stationary, it becomes stationary by subtracting a ...
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0answers
20 views
What to do in the case when you have trend stationary data?
I am having difficulties to find out what to do in the case when your data is not stationary but trend stationary.
I have tested the data using Augmented-Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test using the code:
...
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1answer
30 views
Difference between differencing data and removing trend line for stationarity
In reference to making data stationary for Arima:
Is there a difference between subtracting a best fit line from data, and a first order difference?
Or, subtracting an exponential fit from data, ...
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1answer
34 views
Questions on making data stationary for ARIMA
When doing a time series analysis I have read these instructions :
...
2
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0answers
13 views
Estimation of trend unavailable for final observations using Classical Decomposition
I'm having a hard time understanding why the trend cannot be estimated for the last several observations in a time series using the Classical Decomposition. I have also read that it can't be used to ...
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1answer
27 views
Modelling relationsip between time series variables - R
I have the below time series data. I want to model the relationship between the variables using R.
...
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0answers
10 views
Finding deviations from normal behavior in a batch process
I'm not entirely sure how to phrase this question, so I'll go ahead and describe my problem. I work in a batch production environment, where the data is pretty well cyclical (i.e., behaviors among ...
2
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3answers
59 views
Differencing and trend in time series forecasting
I understand that a time series is differenced to remove trend. But if trend can be modeled for forecasting purposes then why difference a time series at all?
2
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1answer
38 views
How do I interpret ARIMA(2,1,0) with drift
The code that Î used to generate ARIMA summary is
arimafore = forecast(auto.arima(sales), h = 12)
summary(arimafore)
For forecasting 12 months I got the summary ...
1
vote
1answer
18 views
Get polynomial trendline from multiple graphs
I am trying to plot a trendline from multiple datasets of an experiment. This is what my graphs look like. They may not have the same range or the same X values:
I usually go to google sheets and get ...
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0answers
12 views
Interpretation of ARDL coefficients under de-trending
Consider the ARDL(1,1) model: $y_t=\beta_1y_{t-1}+\beta_2x_{t}+\beta_3x_{t-1}+\eta_t$.
Assume that I know $x_t$ is stationary around a linear trend: $x_t=\delta t+z_t$
Then: $y_t=\beta_1y_{t-1}+\...
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0answers
41 views
how to regress for common trend assumption
I have a database of applicants for a grant and their applications for each year. I want to know the effect of the grant on nr of publications. But first i want to perform a common trend analysis. i ...
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0answers
59 views
What is the residual, seasonal component in time-series decomposition represents?
I am doing time series analysis on the below dataset-
Here's link
This is what I got on the decomposition of the dataset in python-
Well, I know the meaning of every word i.e-
The trend represents ...
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0answers
12 views
Testing Null Hypothesis for Trend of Data
I have K groups of data. Every data-group is collected over time. I want to test the hypothesis that they have a specific trend (linear, exponential, etc.). Is ...
1
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1answer
45 views
Irregular time series with multiple sampling sites
I have a dataset of marine debris items (number of items standardized per effort: Items/(number of volunteers * Hours * Length)) taken from 2 main locations (WA and Queensland) in Australia (8 Sub ...
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2answers
20 views
Including time variable as a fixed effect to get rid of autocorrelation?
Does it make sense to include time as a fixed effect along with your predictors to get rid of autocorrelation? Why or why not?
0
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1answer
21 views
Testing whether two timeseries samples are from the same population
I would like to test if different timeseries samples (over the same period of time) are plausibly from the same population.
e.g. popularity of movie Avengers over time from different websites. The ...
2
votes
1answer
63 views
Checking assumptions for Mann-Kendall trend test
I have a data on counts of images submitted with requests overtime. I would like to test the null hypothesis of no trend vs alternative hypothesis that there is a downward trend.
My data is a ...
0
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1answer
13 views
Interpreting Results of Time Series Decomposition
Suppose, after ACF and PCF investigation, I see my data has strong seasonality. I do both additive and multiplicative time series decomposition, just to check it results.
I am not interested in ...
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0answers
8 views
Modeling and testing for trends in hospital-surveillance (count, event) data
Intro
Hi all, I'm working with hospital-based surveillance data. My peers and I are trained (loosely speaking) as frequentists. I'm mindful of the aphorism:
Statistics: A subject which most ...
0
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1answer
35 views
Cox-Stuart vs Augmented Dickey Fuller
Given a time series, suppose I wish to determine if trend is present. I understand I can use the Cox-Stuart test (https://www.r-bloggers.com/trend-analysis-with-the-cox-stuart-test-in-r/), but I have ...
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0answers
68 views
Detecting trend in panel data, smoothing techniques and outlier detection
I'm conducting an analysis on a Landsat scene to detect trends for change detection phenomena (forest disturbances) over a time series of 20 years. I identified on the image the pixels that are ...
2
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0answers
55 views
What is the difference between trend and drift?
I am analyzing a time series using the unit root test. I am stuck in that I do not understand the difference between trend and drift in the time series. Is it correct to say that trend is a feature of ...
2
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2answers
44 views
Time series forecasting with hour data, prediction for next 24 hours
i'm a newbie in Time Series Analysis. I have a 2 year pandas dataframe about water consumptions in hour granularity (24 records for day, 365 days).
Water_consumptions
Data ...
0
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1answer
42 views
How to choose the frequency value without know the seasonality of the data in R ts() package
I am trying to analyze the S$P 500 data on Kaggle.
I have a daily values of the opening stock prices.
As frequency is the number of observations taken in a cycle, I am guessing I need to know the ...
0
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0answers
33 views
What is the reasoning for using ADF test with trend or drift?
When people carry out ADF tests they are mostly preparing a time-series for analysis (in an ARIMA, VAR or whatever model).
In that case I fail to understand why one would use tests with trend. If ...
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0answers
21 views
How to combine trend component and seasonality component from time series model?
I saw some solutions for people who wanted to jump straight into an R package to do the work, but I am trying to do some of the process piece-by-piece. The model that I refer to is
$$Y_t = m_t + s_t ...
1
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1answer
52 views
How to simulate AR(p) model with trend
Backgrounds
I have a time series, and I fitted an AR(p) model with trend of $t^2$, with the help of auto.arima, in R package <...
4
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0answers
42 views
Simple trend analysis with unbalanced & short panel data
I have the following (unbalanced) panel data: yearly sustainability ratings (ESG) of ca. 2000 individual firms over a 11-year period. The average observations per firm only covers 5.3 periods. These ...
1
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2answers
166 views
How to measure the growth of a trend in time-series analysis?
I have a time series dataset as follows
...
1
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1answer
59 views
Is it good practice to use Linear Least-Squares with SMA?
I have time-series (daily) data and I want to understand the general trend.
My current approach is:
Calculate the 7-day simple moving average.
Add a line of best fit (linear least squares ...
3
votes
2answers
302 views
Why ARIMA/ARMA is performing very bad on out of sample (future) prediction?
I am working on a time series forecasting problem. The time series is -
I plotted the rolling mean and rolling variance -
rolling mean -
and the rolling variance-
The rolling mean/variance has not ...
0
votes
1answer
38 views
Are trend-stationary series I(0)?
I have time-series of different interest rates. Graphs of all series show existence of trend. For some of these series ADF-test with constant rejects null hypothesis. For others, null hypothesis is ...
0
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0answers
20 views
Variance of the mean in case of a quadratic trend
Please allow me to use Python code to put my question across. Suppose we want to model a variable using either a linear or a quadratic trend:
...
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0answers
50 views
Should I remove the trend from timeseries when using DeepAR
I saw that for some other algorithms for timeseries data it is advised to remove trend and seasonality before doing the prediction (ex: ARIMA and LSTM)
I figured out from the paper that SageMaker's ...
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0answers
24 views
OLS - Weekly Rate of Change Trend and Interpretation
I have the following data-set to determine the net difference on a weekly basis between the units sold column.
...
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0answers
86 views
How to use seasonal features in time series regression with models such as xgboost?
I have a hard time understanding how one can create seasonal indices such as a yearly mean or (x - yearly mean(x)) and use them as predictors for monthly n horizon forecast.
For example:
I want to ...
