Questions tagged [vecm]

VECM stands for Vector Error Correction Model. It is used with cointegrated time series and panel data in finance and macroeconometrics. VECM offers a convenient representation of a cointegrated VAR model as it distinguishes between short-run and long-run (equilibrium) effects.

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What are the criteria for an acceptable VECM model

I found a lot of criteria used in different papers. So among the 6 criteria I listed below, which criteria must be fulfilled? which are not essential? And are there other criteria/tests that are ...
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(VAR/VECM) Difference between fitted value and predicted value using in-sample data

My understanding of the mechanism of generating fitted values of VAR or VECM is much like lm() (perhaps since VAR/VECM use linear regression to estimate coefficients?), where the data is just used to ...
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How well do VECM estimates perform when used for short term price forecasting

I was wondering if VECM can be used for estimating short term prices of assets, natural gas for instance. From what I understand it seems like its more used for deriving a long term estimation of an ...
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How to obtain Covariance-variance matrix for VECM

I am trying to conduct a causality analysis with a VECM, and I am looking for ways to extract the Covariance-Variance matrix and the correlation matrix from the fitted VECM using the already existing ...
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VAR obtained from vec2var() and and regular VAR giving different IRF and OIRF

I am currently trying to generate the orthogonal impulse response functions (OIRF) of a VECM with two variables. Both variables are I(1) and there is definitely a cointegration at all levels as tested ...
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Interpreting Vector Error Correction Model in STATA

I'm studying the relationship between house prices and GDP, unemployment, mortgage rate, construction starts and construction costs. Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test declines stationarity and ...
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Unstable panel VAR / PVAR

Quick question on PVARs. I am using Stata's user-written pvar package. After running the unit root tests using xtunitroot, I ...
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VECM: Why does Speed of adjustment/Error Correction Term have to be a matrix?

From what I understand, Loading matrix, or alpha, is the same as Error Correction Matrix, which also refers to the speed of adjustment. However, if the speed of adjustment measures how many percentage ...
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Chow test results interpretation

I am analysing time series data right now using gretl, and want to test for a structural break, but I am not quite sure how I have to interpret the results. Let's say I have a wheat price and flour ...
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Level VAR stability for VECM estimation

I am trying to estimate VECM model for I(1) and cointegrated data. First, I try to find the optimal number of lags by using VARselect by following the below steps: level data is given to VARselect, ...
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Interpretation of Betas and alphas in a VECM

Imagine I set up a VECM where there is only one cointegrated vector among three variables A, B and C and the vector of betas B1, B2 and B3 is (1,-0.25, -0.4) and the alphas a1, a2 and a3 are -0.5, -0....
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Simulate An Error Correction Model with Multiple Cointegrating Vectors

Simulating multiple time series with a single cointegrating vector can be done as follows: $S_t = S_{t-1} - \kappa (S_{t-1} \cdot P-\mu) \Delta t + \epsilon_t\sqrt{\Delta t} $ where the noise $\...
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Granger representation theorem - reverse always true?

The Granger representation theorem claims that a vector error correction model can be transformed into a "common trend representation" (processes share the same stochastic trend) if some criteria are ...
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Deriving the Cointegrating Equation in a VECM model

I am teaching myself econometrics and I am having trouble understanding how the cointegrating equation in VECM is derived. Lets say we have two variables, Consumption and Income. As I understand it, ...
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Existence of a common term if time series are pairwise cointegrated

Let's suppose that we have $n$ time series that are integrated of order one: $y_t^i\sim I(1)$ for $i=1, 2, \dots, n$ The difference between any two series is stationary: $y_t^i-y_t^j\sim I(0)$ for $...
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Cointegration (different coefficients using VECM /ca.jo and p-values)

I am trying to get the p-values of my cointegrating vector. I read many questions about it and most of the answers relies on ca.jo funtion from ...
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Can I use VAR model on I(1) series with cointegration? [duplicate]

I have four I(1) series, and the Johansen test(ca.jo()) shows there is one cointegration. My purpose is to forecast, so I want to compare the forecasting results of VAR and VECM model. Is this ...
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Why do we need a VECM specification if the I(1) processes are cointegrated?

I happened to question the rationale of employing VECM, since some empirical studies like Basu (2017) employed a VAR model to obtain impulse-response analysis. As far as I know, one should consider ...
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Can I treat the sum of the coefficients of a variable in the Error Correction Model as total short-run effects?

I am working on a project that uses ECM model to inspect the short-run dynamics of money supply (m(t)) to loans (l(t)) since both variables are I(1). Excluding the error correction term, is it ...
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35 views

What diagnostic tests are mandatory for VECM?

I have finished a test of VECM, I have included Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test and Heteroskedasticity Test (Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey). Not sure are these sufficient? Do I need to do other ...
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Interpretation of alpha1 versus alpha2, error correction model

I am looking at the Vector Error Correction model, and having trouble with deciphering how to interpret (beyond "it is the speed of adjustment") actual results estimated. Here's a VECM: $\Delta Y_i ...
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In Cointegration, adf test or for VAR models. What makes difference in having trend + Constant, Constant alone, and non

In Cointegration, adf test or for VAR models. What makes difference in having trend + Constant, Constant alone, and non. in below link http://www.econ.uiuc.edu/~econ508/R/e-ta8_R.html It said ...
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Statsmodels VECM - Predicting out-of-sample

After fitting a VECM model, I would like to study its out-of-sample behavior but haven't been able to find a way to do it. More precisely, given X_train and ...
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Like Correlation do we have any measurements in Cointegration

i am new to VEC model We can test for Cointegration using johansen test but like Correlation do we have any measurements or gauge for good Cointergations , Like we say 90% correlation is good and 50%...
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Panel VAR / Panel VECM

I have an unbalanced panel with N=800 and T=72 (quarterly frequency). After conducting some unit root tests, all reject the null that all panels are not stationary (the alternative is that at least ...
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Help with Error Correction Terms (ECTs)?

I have some questions about the correction and error terms of the VECM model. I have a system with 10 variables and 3 vectors of cointegration according to the Johansen test. For each dependent ...
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79 views

How to remove seasonality?

I'm trying to do a VECM with these two monthly variables. I applied the Johansen test and they are cointegrated. As you see, they have a hard seasonality component. Should I apply a filter to remove ...
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Cointegration: comparing IRF for the univariate ECT, versus for the multivariate VECM?

Assume we have $k$ I(1) variables, cointegrated of rank $r = 1$. By cointegration, I know that the error-correction term (ECT) is itself a I(0) univariate process. Assume now I am interested in the ...
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VAR/VEC models: checking stationarity during cross-validation

I am attempting to derive a single multivariate/vector autoregressive (VAR) model from a large dataset (6-minutes sampled at 250Hz in total w/ 50 vars) using cross-validation (CV) to optimize model-...
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Distribution of coefficient on the error correction term in ECM and VECM

According to statistic academic literature, the cointegration test on coefficient $\alpha$ of the error term included in ECM or VECM does not follow a standard distribution. My question is: If so, ...
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Vector error correction model output

I'm struggling with the interpretation of one of my course examples. Here is the R output ...
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VAR model residual autocorrelation and variable selection

I have a question on VECM model. I have a set of variables I had planned to include in my VECM model where one particular variable may be trend stationary (@ 10% s.l. by ADF test) while the rest are ...
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Reducing number of time series in VECM

I am exploring using VECM for several time series that are all I(1). However, I am hoping to avoid a model that is too large and was wondering if there is any way I can filter out several variables ...
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How to deal with seasonality in cointegration analysis?

I have two time series of daily gasoline prices (1500 observations each) which I suspect to be cointegrated. I aim to find an ECM/Asymmetric ECM/Threshold ECM to investigate possible asymmetries. My ...
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Will VECM handle multiple seasons?

I have two questions: Since VAR (vector autoregression) will not handle seasonality and trend. VECM comes into play which can handle season as well as trend. I had a doubt whether it will handle ...
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VECM with Multicollinearity

I have fit a vector error correction model (VECM) to some macroeconomic data. In particular, I am interested in three relationships real GDP as a function of employment and real wages employment as a ...
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233 views

VAR model for first differences (not a good idea?)

I have read from couple of slides in the internet that if I have two $I(1)$ processes, it’s not a good idea to simply take the differences and include them in a VAR model, as then one might lose ...
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Computing half life from alpha matrix in Cointegration Analysis - Johansen test

This post suggests that we use eigen values to determine the half life of reverting to mean : https://quant.stackexchange.com/questions/2076/how-to-interpret-the-eigenmatrix-from-a-johansen-...
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Interpreting the names used in the output of Johansen test in package urca in R

Here is a snippet from an example in the package urca:- ...
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478 views

Can I use a VAR in first differences despite having co-integrated data?

I have two variables. Both are I(1), so non-stationary in levels but stationary in first differences. However, having run some tests, I find that both are co-integrated. Based on my statistics ...
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estimating Threshold-Models in seperate equations

I´m currently dealing with threshold VECM models in time series. The basic idea behind a TVECM, according to Lo and Zivot 2001 is There is one point I don´t understand: As far as I see every ...
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VECM - interpreting output from cajorls()

I am a bit puzzled on how to interpret the test results cajorls() from the urca-package. This function returns the OLS ...
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VAR/VEC and stationarity [duplicate]

Do VAR and VEC require no unit-roots? I have three variables where two are difference-stationary (unit roots) and one is trend-stationary (no unit root). The three of them are cointegrated. ...
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What exactly does “local identification” mean in the context of structural VARs and VECMs?

In Lutkepohl's "New Introduction to Time Series Analysis", chapter 9, this term is frequently mentioned, but is in no where well-defined. So what exactly does "local identification" mean in this ...
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Why is a process stable only when the cointegrating rank of its VECM equal to the dimension of its process?

According to this book, page 248, it is because $|I_K-A_1-...-A_p|=|-\Pi|$ (reverse polynomial), which is unequal to 0. I have a questions regarding this argument: Wouldn't $|I_K-A_1-...-A_p|=|-\Pi|=...
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Interpretation VECM

I am testing two Variables, lets say "A" and "B" that are cointegration of order I(1). I am using a VECM and define "A" as my dependent variable and the VECM says that the significant error correction ...
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How to use the residual of FMOLS when conducting VECM in Stata

I am trying to figure out whether the results of FMOLS (cointreg command in Stata) has uni-directional or bi-directional Granger causality relationship. I have seen people do this in Eviews but not in ...
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VECM in matrix form - explanation

I am wondering if someone can help me with explaining some variables in that VECM equation in a matrix form and checking if my previous assumptions are right about the parameters. So $\varphi$ in ...
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100 views

R code for Granger representation theorem of VECM model

Is there any R package or code snippet to obtain the Granger representation of a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as describe in HANSEN, 2005 ? The VECM model would be the output of ...
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184 views

Lag Zero in VECM

I am trying to fit VECM model on my data. Data contains two non stationary series of two Variables Y and X. I am trying to fit following VECM model using URCA package. Regressing Y on X and lagged ...