Skip to main content
2 of 2
Wagen, not Wagon
Mike Lawrence
  • 14k
  • 9
  • 47
  • 72

I'm hesitant to answer this. These Frequentist vs. Bayesian spats are generally unproductive, and can be nasty and juvenile. For what it's worth, Wagenmakers is kind of a big deal, whereas largely forgotten 3k+ year old Chinese philosophers on the other hand...

However, I would argue that the standard Frequentist interpretation of a 50% confidence interval is not that you should be 50% confident the true value lies within the interval, or that there is a 50% probability that it does. Rather, the idea is simply that, if the same process were repeated indefinitely, the percentage of CI's that included the true value would converge to 50%. For any given single interval, however, the probability that it includes the true value is either 0 or 1, but you don't know which.

gung - Reinstate Monica
  • 147.5k
  • 89
  • 406
  • 716