[The `sklearn` documentation discusses calibration.][1] One of the example models (in orange) is a naïve Bayes model that has a descending calibration curve, meaning that observations with larger estimated probabilities of occurrence actually occur less often. [![sklearn calibration ][2]][2] A member of this community has posted an [example][3] where the same phenomenon occurs but even more visually extreme. [![The Great calibration][4]][4] Those seem to be examples where the rankings are wrong. [1]: https://scikit-learn.org/stable/auto_examples/calibration/plot_calibration_curve.html#sphx-glr-auto-examples-calibration-plot-calibration-curve-py [2]: https://i.sstatic.net/yv4od.png [3]: https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/570095/how-to-calibrate-models-if-we-dont-have-enough-data [4]: https://i.sstatic.net/ALnHt.png