Following [this][1] tutorial and [this][2] question of mine, for 54 different architectures, I have created **7 fold of Time series nested cross validation** and calculated their average **RMSE**s along the folds. Here is the plot of results for each model (sorted by test errors): [![enter image description here][3]][3] Train RMSE Val. RMSE Test RMSE 0 49.687797 46.066586 51.520229 1 45.753350 45.379110 51.802998 2 48.282409 45.721729 51.841783 3 48.600064 46.845202 52.014357 4 47.541941 45.378764 52.024013 5 51.300506 46.528276 52.107319 6 48.919367 46.286362 52.169052 7 52.408936 46.677165 52.268566 8 50.166622 45.407038 52.307951 9 49.050966 46.781303 52.310827 10 49.872758 45.671953 52.321291 11 46.177456 45.494021 52.557310 12 49.036850 45.852280 52.594011 13 47.316358 44.802460 52.600244 14 52.821173 46.258382 52.631585 15 48.910266 45.990957 52.754455 16 50.534043 45.315262 52.815753 17 48.635029 46.097369 52.966606 18 49.386921 45.257947 53.017332 19 48.335603 45.386894 53.304866 20 61.186672 47.027477 53.460612 21 49.972194 45.545195 53.470178 22 59.882552 46.475939 53.944369 23 55.951904 45.525361 54.027113 24 58.252209 45.222602 54.057611 25 64.149203 48.698381 54.323094 26 59.535415 49.236504 54.344255 27 61.096072 49.298675 54.400525 28 55.760195 45.328589 54.401031 29 57.053078 47.123611 54.683293 30 56.392229 47.227539 54.685360 31 62.176391 46.952841 55.149935 32 58.396399 47.631487 55.158098 33 62.114717 50.188596 55.276931 34 59.871759 49.238543 55.285609 35 58.184016 47.148222 55.315562 36 56.286819 45.840154 55.407579 37 56.275041 45.399141 55.552131 38 60.154595 45.440626 55.572438 39 57.626510 47.418812 55.609291 40 59.286548 46.609070 55.622315 41 57.947627 47.487280 55.635283 42 61.773251 48.317250 55.783020 43 58.108373 47.029473 55.806003 44 60.723731 46.981426 55.825117 45 64.604817 47.873297 55.950005 46 59.613294 47.207958 56.326126 47 63.628736 48.368041 56.384107 48 56.820503 45.111788 56.454283 49 64.583549 47.489629 56.486057 50 63.903845 48.011409 57.246105 51 63.635471 47.778477 57.260250 52 60.728946 47.501679 57.340145 53 71.336779 47.621872 57.731262 Now I want to select the best model. What is a bit confusing for me is that the test errors for some models are less than train errors. From [this][4] answer, the answerer claims that when Training errors are higher than test errors, the model is not properly fitted to the data. ( Although He didn't introduced a threshold.) 1. Are Those models with training errors higher than test errors, not good enough? 2. From the plot, I concluded that the best model is the first one (Test RMSE = 51.520229). Is this selection procedure satisfactory? [1]: https://towardsdatascience.com/time-series-nested-cross-validation-76adba623eb9 [2]: https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/408617/cross-validation-for-time-series-prediction-how-to-choose-the-best-model-from-d [3]: https://i.sstatic.net/ZqHHd.png [4]: https://stats.stackexchange.com/a/187404/217810