In addition to combinatorial/hypergeometric approach in my comment: By simulation, the probability of a number higher than 95, out of 23 draws without replacement from among numbers $1,2,3,\dots,94,96,97,98,99,$ is $0.663\pm 0.001.$ set.seed(2020) mx =replicate(10^6, max(sample(c(1:94,96:99), 23))) mean(mx > 95) [1] 0.663096 2*sd(mx > 95)/1000 [1] 0.000945304 Unconditionally, the chances the highest number out of $1,2,3,\dots,99$ exceeds 95 is $0.677\pm0.001$ by simulation. set.seed(928) mx = replicate(10^6, max(sample(1:99, 24))) mean(mx > 95) [1] 0.677377 # aprx P(max nr > 95) 2*sd(mx > 95)/1000 [1] 0.0009349601 # aprx 95% margin of simulation err